VZCZCXRO8940
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0294/01 1651314
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131314Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2653
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000294 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12598: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: REACTIONS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR REGARDING RECENT POLITICAL 
EVENTS 
 
REF: CONAKRY 00212 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY. During an Embassy road trip the week of June 2, 
contacts shared mixed reactions to recent political developments in 
Guinea.  Most everyone, including government officials and civil 
society, agreed that former Prime Minister Kouyate had to go. 
However, civil society representatives were divided as to whether or 
not the appointment of Dr. Ahmed Souare as the new prime minister 
violates the 2007 tripartite accords.  In general, the population 
appears to be waiting to see what the new Prime Minister does before 
reacting.  With respect to the military mutiny, many contacts were 
clearly disappointed that the mutineers had resorted to violence for 
narrowly defined, self-serving interests, suggesting that they would 
have been willing to support them if the mutineers had a broader 
political focus.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (U) During a trip to Boke, Sangaredi, Koundara, Labe and Mamou 
(spanning Maritime and Lower Guinea) the week of June 4-9, Asst 
Poloff met with local authorities, civil society, and youth 
associations to discuss the population's reaction to the recent 
political events in Guinea, and specifically the change in prime 
ministers and the ongoing military mutiny. 
 
------------- 
"PRESIDENT CAN CHANGE GOVERNMENT IF HE WANTS" 
------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Prefect of Boke, Keita Mamadou, reported all was calm 
and normal in Boke during the recent political turmoil in Conakry. 
When asked his opinion about the appointment of a new prime 
minister, Mr. Mamadou said that "the President is the head of state, 
and if he wants to change the government, he can do that."  He added 
that this change will not impact him directly as he is appointed by 
the President, explaining that while the Prime Minister recommends 
the Prefects, the President ultimately signs the decree. The Prefect 
also commented on the military mutiny, saying that there were no 
military protests in Boke. He added that he appreciates the 
decisions the President made to appease the mutineers, which put an 
end to the mutiny. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Governor of Boke, Siafa Beavogui, was more neutral.  He 
stressed that he was part of the committee that wrote Guinea's 
constitution and that the new prime minister should abide by it. 
According to the Governor, a civic "catastrophe" similar to events 
in neighboring countries will not happen in Guinea because Guineans 
will stop before it gets out of hand. He said that Guinea has 
"three-day crises" that are largely "bluffing" politics. The 
Governor added that he knows people keep bringing up ethnicity as a 
potential issue, but that it cannot be a problem in Guinea because 
all the ethnic groups are inter-related. 
 
--------------- 
"PEOPLE WANTED A NEW PRIME MINISTER" 
--------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Several hours north of Boke on Guinea's border with 
Senegal, in Koundara, the Secretary General of the prefecture, 
Mamadou Allou Diallo, confirmed that everything remained calm and 
normal in Koundara during the military mutiny, adding that people 
are generally far more concerned with the upcoming farming season 
than politics in Conakry.  Mr. Diallo said that according to the 
constitution of Guinea, it is up to the President to appoint 
positions in the government.  He reported hearing the decree read 
over the radio, but said he had not heard anything about the new 
prime minister's priorities. According to Mr. Diallo, the people of 
Koundara wanted a new Prime Minister, and are now waiting to see 
what Prime Minister Souare will do. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Mayor of Koundara, Elhadj Abdoulaye Boiro, said that 
former Prime Minister Kouyate's appointment last year gave hope to 
the population.  However, Mr. Boiro said the population in Koundara 
wanted a chane in prime ministers because Prime Minister Kouyat 
did not deliver on his promises, saying that peole used the price 
of rice, which has more than dubled during Kouyate's 
administration, as an indcator of his failure. Mr. Boiro added that 
the ppulation is waiting to see what the new Prime Miniter does 
before they form an opinion.  The Mayor lso commented on the 
military mutiny the previou week, saying that the people did not 
support th military mutiny because the mutineers chose only o make 
demands that benefited the military. He sid that had the mutineers 
made demands that wouldhave benefited all Guineans, they would have 
recived a great deal of support from the population. 
 
------------------------ 
MILITARY ACTED SELFISLY 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) Asst Poloff also held political discussions with members of 
a youth association in Koundara. Mamadou Saidou Balde, Secretary 
 
CONAKRY 00000294  002 OF 003 
 
 
General of the Association de Jeune Pour le Dveloppent de Badiar, 
said that the former prime minister could not do anything for the 
people of Guinea because he was blocked by the President.  He did 
however acknowledge some of Kouyate's accomplishments, such as 
progress with the international finance institutions and increased 
foreign investment. Other members agreed with Mr. Balde, saying that 
rivalry between the President and Prime Minister is the reason 
Kouyate was unable to effect change.  Mr. Balde said that he 
preferred former Prime Minister Kouyate to Prime Minister Souare, 
because Prime Minister Souare is part of President Conte's corrupt 
administration. Mr. Balde also commented on the military mutiny, 
saying that "the population initially thought the mutineers cared 
about the livelihood of Guinean people, but quickly realized they 
only cared about themselves." 
 
¶8. (SBU) The President of Koundara's Civil Society Council, Ibrahima 
Diakite, told Asst Poloff that if the President thought the former 
prime minister was failing, Conte should have convened the 
signatories to the 2007 tripartite accords to decide on an 
appropriate replacement. Mr. Diakite said that while firing Prime 
Minister Kouyate was a clear breach of the accords, the lack of 
reaction from the population illustrates that people felt Kouyate 
had failed to deliver on his promises. He added that people are now 
waiting to see who the new PM nominates to serve in his cabinet. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The members of the Civil Society Council were clearly 
disappointed in the military mutineers. One member said that the 
"military are supposed to protect the people, and instead they were 
attacking them." Another said that while mutineers are getting 
millions of GnF and cheap rice, the people of Guinea continue to 
suffer, commenting that the mutineers' actions are "sinful". Mr. 
Diakite said that had the mutineers not been selfish in their 
demands, they would have had support from the population. 
 
------------------------ 
"COUNTRY AGREES WITH APPOINTMENT OF A NEW PRIME MINISTER" 
------------------------ 
 
¶10. (SBU) Moving into Middle Guinea, the Governor of Labe, Elhadj 
Ibrahima Sory Diabate, said that all has been calm in Labe because 
"people appreciate the appointment of a new Prime Minister," and are 
waiting to see what he does. He added that in his opinion the 
appointment of a new PM represents hope for Guinea. Regarding the 
military mutiny, Mr. Diabate said that the "population understands 
the legitimacy of their demands, however the people do not support 
their acts of violence." 
 
¶11. (SBU) Asst Poloff met separately with the Prefect of Labe, 
Elhadj Ibrahima Balde, who said that he does not know the rationale 
for Kouyate's dismissal, but that the President can do what he wants 
with his administration. He said that "the lack of protests across 
Guinea illustrate that the whole country agrees with the appointment 
of a new prime minister."  He added that he knows Prime Minister 
Souare well and his educational, technical and administrative 
abilities will be good for Guinea. When asked about the military 
mutiny, Mr. Balde said that the mutiny is an outcome of years of 
recruiting people who are involved in malicious behavior and are 
undisciplined. 
 
------------------------- 
ETHNIC MOTIVES BEHIND CHANGE IN PRIME MINISTERS 
------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Building upon Econoff's meeting (reftel) with the Prefect 
of Mamou Safioulaye Bah on May 21, Asst Poloff asked about the 
population of Mamou's reaction to the recent events. Mr. Bah said 
that everything has been calm in Mamou, and that the population is 
waiting to see what the new Prime Minister does. Mr. Bah also 
expressed his thoughts on the role of ethnicity in the change of 
prime ministers. He said that President Conte is using ethnicity as 
a tactic to remain in power, appointing a Peuhl as Prime Minister 
because it is usually the Peuhl communities that protest and spark 
civil unrest. He said that is the reason only a few areas, Kankan 
(Upper Guinea) and Matoto (Conakry) for example (considered 
predominately Malinke), experienced unrest when Prime Minister 
Souare was appointed. Mr. Bah also briefly commented on the military 
mutiny saying that his military guards are no longer coming to work 
now that they have their money. He added that the President set a 
very dangerous precedent by meeting all of the mutineers' demands. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Government officials, most of whom were appointed by 
former Prime Minister Kouyate, claimed to support the President's 
decision to install a new prime minister.  However, most are not 
seen as Conte loyalists and may lose their posts under the new 
administration, despite their assurances to the contrary.  Like the 
 
CONAKRY 00000294  003 OF 003 
 
 
population, they too are waiting to see what the new prime minister 
does. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Although political opinions in the interior sometimes do 
not reflect those of the capital, it is clear that the residents of 
Maritime and Middle Guinea are in sync with Conakry when it comes to 
the appointment of a new prime minister and the ongoing military 
mutiny.  The population appears to be in "wait and see" mode, 
watching the new prime minister and looking to his cabinet as an 
indication of what his priorities (and his allegiances) might be. 
Comments about the mutiny echo those heard recently in Conakry. 
Many people seem to be disappointed with the mutineers' narrow 
focus, indicating that they would have been willing to support the 
military's methods if the objective was more political, and broadly 
defined.  END COMMENT. 
 
CARTER