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INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3144 
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE 
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 
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RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL 
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000197 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS, TDP BEAT EXPECTATIONS IN ANDHRA PRADESH 
BY-ELECTIONS 
 
REF: CHENNAI 028 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The results of the May 29 by-elections in Andhra 
Pradesh dealt a blow to separatist aspirations in the southern 
state's Telangana region. The separatist Telangana Rashtra Samiti 
(TRS) underperformed despite high expectations, winning only 7 of 
the 16 seats in the state legislative assembly and two of the four 
parliamentary seats that went to the polls. Both the Congress and 
the principal opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP) won more seats 
than expected. The strong performance in the by-elections was 
especially important for Congress: it averted the infighting and 
strategic blunders that led to defeats in other states and preserved 
the party's hopes of holding remaining competitive in parliamentary 
elections in Andhra Pradesh. End summary. 
 
A referendum on separate statehood for Telangana 
-------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The May 29 by-elections to fill the 16 state assembly and 
four Indian parliamentary seats from the Telangana region that had 
been vacated by members of the TRS -- a single-issue party devoted 
to achieving separate statehood for the Andhra Pradesh's 
historically backward Telangana region (reftel) -- attracted an 
unusual amount of attention. The by-elections came as a result of 
the March 2008 mass resignations by TRS legislators in protest of 
the lack of progress towards statehood. The polls were seen as a 
"referendum" on whether to establish a separate Telangana state and 
a "mini-general election" pitting the TRS against both the ruling 
Congress and the principal opposition TDP. Expectations were that 
the TRS would win back most of the seats on account of sympathy for 
their strong stand in favor of a separate state. Visiting Hyderabad 
on the day of the by-elections, we heard nearly unanimous 
predictions of a strong showing for the TRS. Even Congress 
officials were downbeat: "Telangana sentiment is very strong" one 
told post. He added that "we had hoped to keep the TRS in single 
digits but that does not seem likely." A senior bureaucrat closely 
associated with the Congress party echoed the view that TRS would 
likely retain more than 10 of the 16 legislative assembly seats it 
had given up. 
 
Telangana voters say no to TRS 
-------- 
 
¶3. (U) The by-election results announced on June 1 delivered a 
surprising rebuke to the TRS. Instead of holding on to most of its 
seats as expected, the TRS retained only 7 of the 16 Telangana seats 
in Andhra Pradesh's legislative assembly and two of the four 
parliamentary seats from the region. Congress and the TDP both 
exceeded expectations: Congress picked up 5 legislative assembly 
seats and one parliamentary seat; TDP won 4 legislative assembly 
seats and one parliamentary seat. Although TRS President K. 
Chandrasekhar Rao managed to hold onto his seat, his slim margin of 
victory was seen as an especially foreboding message for the TRS. 
Rao won the May 29 by-election by only 15,000 votes; in 2006 he won 
the same seat by more than 200,000. The poor results rattled the 
TRS. Rao refused to comment publicly on the elections and resigned 
as party president two days later. One of the TRS winning 
parliamentary candidates told reporters that "the Telangana 
sentiment seems to have failed or lost direction." 
 
TRS falls to Congress/TDP populism 
-------- 
 
¶4. (U) Although the by-elections no doubt hurt the immediate 
prospects for a separate Telangana state, the long term impact is 
muddier. TRS clearly took a beating, but that beating may speak 
more to the unpopularity of TRS as a party than to the popularity of 
the Telangana cause. TRS, especially its president K. Chandrasekhar 
Rao, came under criticism for forcing the effort and expense of a 
by-election for the second time in two years. Congress emphasized 
the development angle by highlighting the numerous programs it has 
implemented, including heavily subsidized rice, health care for the 
poor, free power for farmers, and massive irrigation projects. TDP 
echoed the Congress development mantra, promising to provide even 
more assistance to voters. TRS, however, campaigned solely on issue 
of separate statehood and was punished at the polls for ignoring 
pocketbook issues. Congress and TDP also blunted the effectiveness 
of TRS's focus on Telangana by blurring their own positions on the 
question of statehood. 
 
Telangana loses for now but won't go away 
-------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The media quickly seized on the loss to pronounce the 
movement for Telangana statehood dead, or at least on life support, 
but the calls for Telangana will probably resume once the sting of 
the TRS election defeat heals. A media analyst said, "it would be 
wrong to read the results to mean that Telangana sentiment was not 
there." Instead, he argued, the Congress and TDP's fuzzy positions 
on Telangana demonstrate that both parties recognized the continued 
potency of separatism. At a minimum, the by-election results give 
Congress some breathing space to deal with the calls for a separate 
state but the issue will likely resurface. In fact, leaders from 
the pro-Telangana wing of the Congress party said the by-election 
results show the need for Congress action on statehood because the 
people trust Congress (instead of TRS) to deliver. 
 
TDP, Congress gain at TRS expense 
-------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In their battle for power in Andhra Pradesh, both Congress 
and TDP have gained at TRS's expense. The results have been 
described variously as a "major morale booster" for Congress and as 
evidence of a "resurgent" TDP which could threaten Congress's 
chances in the 2009 elections. The truth is that both parties 
outperformed expectations, together wresting an unexpected number of 
seats from the TRS. The TDP overcame hostility to its previous 
opposition, and current ambiguity, towards Telangana statehood; 
Congress fought past its failure to deliver despite having promised 
to support Telangana statehood (reftel), as well as anti-incumbency 
in a state it has run since 2004. 
 
Comment: Congress dodges a bullet 
-------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: The Andhra Pradesh by-election results were 
particularly important for the Congress party. Even though Chief 
Minister YSR Reddy is popular for his development and 
welfare-oriented approach, there was a great deal of unease about 
the party's prospects in the by-elections in light of the Congress 
party's deteriorating national fortunes. The anxiety was acute 
coming only a week after Congress's first-ever loss to BJP in South 
India right next door in Karnataka. By averting the crippling 
infighting and second guessing within the party that characterized 
its debacle in Karnataka and would have inevitably led to a bad 
showing in the by-elections, Congress kept alive hopes of remaining 
competitive in a state where it dominated during the last national 
elections, winning 30 of 42 of the state's parliamentary seats. End 
comment. 
 
KAPLAN