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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000813 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BR
SUBJECT:  Brazil: Local elections: Lots of Heat, Little Light 
 
REF: A) Sao Paulo 285, B) Brasilia 674 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Campaigning for October 5 municipal elections is 
getting underway with much media attention and political jockeying 
but the results will have almost no bearing on national politics. 
About a fifth of the 513 federal deputies are running for mayor, and 
the Chamber of Deputies will get much less than usual business done 
from July through election day on October 5.  Over 5000 towns and 
cities across Brazil will elect mayors and city councils but only 
two races are nationally significant: Sao Paulo (ref A) and Belo 
Horizonte.  The Sao Paulo race could propel one candidate, Marta 
Suplicy, toward a 2010 presidential bid, and the Belo Horizonte race 
could strengthen the presidential chances of Aecio Neves, the 
governor of Minas Gerais state.  End summary. 
 
Congressional Slowdown 
 
¶2.  (SBU) So many congressmen, about a fifth of the 513 federal 
deputies, run for mayor every four years that the three months 
before local elections are called a "white recess," that is, a long, 
unofficial recess in which little work is done even though Congress 
is in session.  Those who win will be replaced by their alternates, 
many of whom will be completely inexperienced in legislative work. 
The result could be an increase in congressional inefficiency, 
possibly worsening congress's already poor public image.  In some 
cases the outgoing members of congress are prominent leaders.  In 
Porto Alegre, for example, four federal deputies are running for 
mayor, including Onyx Lorenzoni, chairman of the agriculture 
committee and an influential leader of the opposition Democrats 
Party. 
 
Sao Paulo 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Tourism Minister Marta Suplicy resigned on June 5 to run 
for mayor of Sao Paulo (ref A) and if she wins, she could decide to 
run for president.  She would have to defeat Dilma Rousseff, chief 
of the Civilian Household and President Lula's current favorite, for 
the Workers' Party (PT) presidential nomination (ref B).  The Sao 
Paulo race could also poison the national alliance between Social 
Democrats (PSDB, opposition) and Democrats (DEM, opposition).  A 
PSDB faction led by Governor Jose Serra, a leading 2010 presidential 
contender, supports the reelection of the incumbent DEM mayor, who 
was Serra's deputy when he was mayor and has faithfully implemented 
Serra's policies.  Another faction supports the party's own 
candidate, Geraldo Alckmin.  The Alckmin-Serra split in the PSDB 
could cause significant fallout both within the party and in its 
alliance with the DEM, whose support is important in 2010. 
 
Belo Horizonte 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais, the second 
most populous state, Mayor Fernando Pimentel (PT) has tried to ally 
his party with the PSDB of Governor Aecio Neves in support of a 
candidate from another party, but has been repeatedly blocked by the 
PT's national leadership.  A successful PSDB-PT alliance could help 
both the governor and the mayor in 2010: Neves may run for president 
and Pimentel for governor, but the PT leadership is trying to 
prevent anything that would strengthen Neves because as a 
presidential candidate he would run against the PT.  The issue is 
still unresolved. 
 
Rio de Janeiro 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Interestingly, the local elections in Rio de Janeiro, 
Brazil's second largest city, have little national importance.  Rio 
de Janeiro state governor Sergio Cabral (Brazilian Democratic 
Movement Party, PMDB, government coalition) has consolidated his 
power base in the state and marginalized current city mayor Cesar 
Maia (DEM).  Cabral was seen to be building a coalition to support 
his expected bid for the presidency in either 2010 or 2014, but he 
recently backtracked on his support for the local PT candidate 
(after pressure from his own PMDB and threats of a split within the 
party) and is now pressing the PMDB to support his former secretary 
for sports and tourism as the party's candidate. Of interest to the 
USG is that Federal Deputy Fernando Gabeira (Green Party), currently 
polling third in the mayoral race, participated in the 1969 
kidnapping of U.S. Ambassador Charles Elbrick.  (Note: Gabeira has 
publicly reversed his position and now condemns kidnapping.  End 
note.) 
 
Marriages of Convenience 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Local alliances different from the national 
 
BRASILIA 00000813  002 OF 002 
 
 
government-opposition fault line are normal and, according to Andre 
Miranda of the PATRI consulting firm, they have nothing to do with 
future national alliances.  They are formed for political 
convenience, and demonstrate the insignificance of ideology in local 
alliances.  Often a party or candidate may seek support from another 
party because of the vote-getting power of a locally powerful 
politician who can get out the vote.  There is always a quid pro 
quo, sometimes overt, sometimes hidden. 
 
Comment 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Municipal elections generate a lot of heat but little 
light: they are not a good predictor of outcomes of the next 
national elections, and they do not bring voter concerns or grand 
themes into relief the way national elections do.  The elections may 
indicate whether Marta Suplicy has a chance to run for president in 
2010, whether Aecio Neves can increase his national appeal and 
presidential chances by allying locally with adversaries, and 
whether Jose Serra will find himself weakened as a result of the 
rebuff from within his own party, which could affect his current 
2010 front-runner status.  Local elections also provide an 
opportunity for young talent to emerge, and Mission will report 
significant developments.  But despite the cacophony of thousands of 
electoral campaigns, they tell us little else. 
 
SOBEL