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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BRASILIA 000756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR S/P AND WHA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2018 
TAGS: PREL BR
SUBJECT: S/P DIRECTOR GORDON HOLDS FIRST STRATEGIC TALKS 
WITH BRAZIL 
 
REF: A. BRASILIA 645 
     ¶B. YEKATERINBURG 035 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Clifford M. Sobel, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  S/P Director Dr. David Gordon held four 
hours of talks April 9 in Brasilia with Ministry of External 
Relations (MRE, or Itamaraty) Under Secretary for Political 
Affairs Ambassador Everton Vieira Vargas.  The wide-ranging 
talks focused generally on the trends that are likely to 
change profoundly the international system over the next two 
decades.  Specific topics covered included the rise of 
Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) as global 
players; mutual concerns over violent extremism, terrorism, 
and nuclear proliferation, particularly with regard to Iran; 
overlapping concerns with regard to energy security, 
environmental protection, and economic growth; and United 
Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform.  Both sides noted the 
frankness and strategic focus of the talks, and agreed that 
it would be helpful to  continue the conversation at regular 
intervals, perhaps semi-annually.  Gordon conveyed U.S. 
willingness to host the next round of talks, and they 
tentatively agreed that the week after the opening of the UN 
General Assembly (e.g., early October 2008) might offer a 
good opportunity for this. Septel will provide a readout of 
Dr. Gordon's other meetings in Brazil.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Dr. Gordon, joined by Ambassador Sobel, WHA DAS 
Chris McMullen, S/P Member William McIlhenny, and PolCouns 
(notetaker) held a two hour session with Amb. Vargas on April 
9, followed by a working lunch.  Amb. Vargas was joined by 
Director of Diplomatic Planning Amb. Maria da Rocha, 
President of the National Foundation Alexandre Gusmao Amb. 
Jose Jeronimo Moscardo, Director-General of the Institute for 
Foreign Relations Research Amb. Carlos Henrique Cardim, Amb. 
Vargas's Chief of Staff Antonio Salgado, and United States 
and Canada Director Joao Tabajara. 
 
---------------------- 
Rise of the BRICs 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) In his opening remarks, Dr. Gordon stressed that his 
objective was to hold an open discussion with Brazilian 
counterparts on strategic issues, looking to identify areas 
of convergence over the longer term and ways in which we 
might build our bilateral partnership through joint action in 
the region and the world.  Noting the excellent relationship 
between our presidents and foreign ministers, Dr. Gordon 
stressed that these were historic talks that reflect Brazil's 
place as a rising power.  Amb. Vargas agreed, affirming our 
large, multicultural democracies have a commonality of values 
that we should make "more and more operative."  He noted 
that, as a developing, non-English speaking country with a 
limited ability to disseminate its views in today's 
fast-changing world, these types of discussions are 
particularly important for Brazil. 
 
¶4. (C) Amb. Vargas asserted that deepening asymmetries within 
and among countries will have a problematic effect on global 
governance.  He commented on the rise of developing countries 
and their "new Keynesianism" that seeks to use the power of 
the state to promote social change, as Brazil is doing with 
its "Bolsa Familia" (Family Stipend) program.  Brazil is 
working to diversify its partners, for which the GOB has been 
criticized.  But Brazil is not seeking to do so at the 
expense of "traditional relationships," he said, noting that 
the United States remains Brazil's largest investor.  Brazil 
is "trying to give content to Goldman Sachs" by organizing 
meetings among the "BRIC"s (Brazil, Russia, India, and 
China--a ministerial meeting of the four was held at the end 
 
BRASILIA 00000756  002 OF 005 
 
 
of May, ref b).  Dr. Gordon agreed that internal dynamics are 
increasingly important in shaping policy, citing crime and 
drug networks, the uneven benefits of globalization, and poor 
governance that has driven some into violent extremism.  Dr. 
Gordon expressed support for diversification of the world's 
economic engines, stressing that it is not a zero-sum game, 
but rather a benefit that adds to the resilience of the 
global economy. 
 
¶5. (C) Dr. Gordon asked Amb. Vargas Brazil's views on the 
rise of Asian economies, noting that, although China's 
non-democratic political system presents a constraint, we 
have had some success, for example through the six-party 
talks on North Korea, in moving China to be a more 
responsible global stakeholder.  Amb. Vargas agreed that it 
is important to manage the rise of China*particularly their 
growing presence in Asia and Africa--and encourage their role 
as a stabilizing force, in particular against terrorism.  We 
need to deal with China, he said, but show that there are 
real changes necessary.  Vargas saw China's "three strategic 
relationships" as those with Japan, Russia, and India, all 
three of which he saw as difficult for China, citing Japan's 
interest in UNSC membership, Russia's severe aging and 
development problems, and India's agreement with the United 
States on nuclear issues.  Vargas said that Brazil has 
developed a strategic relationship with both India and China. 
 The latter includes a dialogue on human rights, and he 
stressed that Brazil believes that "certain values need to be 
respected," which is why the GOB had issued a statement on 
the recent protests in Tibet. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Extremism, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation: Focus on the 
Middle East, Pakistan, Iran 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Dr. Gordon raised the problems of violent extremism, 
terrorism, and nuclear proliferation, noting our hope that we 
can get Iran to adopt a more sensible approach on the last 
issue.  Amb. Vargas responded that Brazil sees terrorism as a 
significant problem, and that our regional consultations are 
good, but noted that our two countries do not identify the 
same groups as terrorists.  He agreed that extremism is a 
concern, citing its role in fueling conflicts in the Middle 
East.  "Peace is only possible," he said, "if countries try 
to disarm the extremist spirit."  He suggested, as an 
example, that it is important to engage Hamas in the effort 
to achieve a Palestinian state to convince them that 
extremism is not an option.  Dr. Gordon stressed the need for 
Israel and the Palestinian Authority to come to terms before 
broadening the negotiation.  Amb. Vargas said that Brazil 
values enormously the invitation it received to participate 
in the Annapolis meeting, and asked if Russia would be 
hosting a follow-on conference.  With the Secretary still in 
Russia, Dr. Gordon said he did not know and would get back to 
Amb. Vargas on that.  Vargas stress that Brazil wants to 
cooperate with the United States on the Middle East. 
 
¶7. (C) Amb. Vargas said that Brazil follows developments in 
Pakistan closely.  They were pleased by the outcome of the 
recent elections, but concerned that "the biggest challenge 
in years" is still to come and that "a nuclear power with 
feeble institutions" could present tremendous problems for 
promoting stable governance in the region.  Dr. Gordon agreed 
that we are less likely to achieve success in promoting 
democracy if there is not success in Pakistan. 
 
¶8. (C) With regard to Iran, Vargas said that Brazil "is very 
much aware of U.S. concerns" and praised the Secretary's 
statement that the United States has no permanent enemies. 
He affirmed that the presence of nuclear weapons in the 
 
BRASILIA 00000756  003 OF 005 
 
 
Middle East is a serious threat that needs to be addressed, 
but stressed that Brazil recognizes both the right of Iran to 
develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes and the need for 
IAEA safeguards.  The actions against Iran should not be used 
to preventing other developing countries from engaging in 
nuclear programs.  Vargas said that regime change in Iran 
will not solve the problem, and that "dialogue and diplomacy 
are essential to persuade Iran to maintain a peaceful nuclear 
program."  He has spoken with people close to the Iranian 
regime who tell him that even conservatives in Iran hope that 
a new U.S. Administration will allow for a better 
relationship with the United States.  Iran is a regional 
power*it has a role to play in Iraq, for example*and Brazil 
sees engagement as the way to ensure that Iran does not play 
a destabilizing role in the region.  Dr. Gordon was skeptical 
about Iranian government willingness to sustain a dialogue 
with the U.S., and noted that Iran today underestimates the 
degree of consensus that exists in the United States with 
regard to preventing extremist Shiite elements from gaining 
access to nuclear weapons.  He said the USG will continue to 
work through the UNSC, and that as we increase economic 
pressure on Iran, we continue to hold open the possibility of 
negotiations. 
 
¶9. (C) Amb. Vargas made four points with regard to 
non-proliferation.  First, Brazil would like to see a renewed 
emphasis on disarmament, and is concerned that military 
doctrines still reserve a role for nuclear weapons.  Second, 
Brazil is concerned about the possibility of non-state actors 
possessing nuclear weapons.  Third, Brazil is concerned about 
what it sees as apathy toward the UN and Non-Proliferation 
Treaty (NPT) regimes, which he said were in "crisis." 
Finally, he said that, without an advance in disarmament, he 
did not believe it would be possible to be consistent on 
non-proliferation, which is why Brazil is a member of the New 
Agenda Coalition.  Amb. Sobel asked about the Brazilian 
position on the Additional Protocol.  Amb. Vargas said that 
it is "on the table, not in a drawer," and that the GOB is 
"working it hard," but he stressed it is very sensitive and 
that the Ministry of Defense plays a crucial role. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Energy Security, Environment and Economic Growth 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶10. (C)  Dr. Gordon emphasized the tightening links between 
energy security, environmental stewardship, and sustainable 
econmic growth, their growgin policy priority, and the 
increasingly complicated challenge we face in managing these 
intertwined issues wisely. We have to avoid suggesting that 
the international community must choose between protecting 
the environment and providing opportunity for growth to poor 
countries.  A new framework for reducing greenhouse gases 
that includes all emitters and technological breakthroughs 
toward a post-carbon world will be key elements of the 
solution, and the United States sees partnership with Brazil 
as part of a policy bridge between committed Europeans and 
skeptical Asians.  With regard to commitments, Amb. Vargas 
said that countries should have flexibility and that he did 
not see possibilities for a "unified position."  He noted 
that, unlike most countries, about 75 percent of Brazil's 
GHG's come from deforestation and only 25 percent from 
industry.  Brazil cannot cut its competitive sectors when 
there is still insufficient economic growth to provide funds 
for redressing deforestation.  Dr. Gordon suggested that a 
robust global target, allowing countries to decide on actions 
to implement it, and monitoring would be a possible approach, 
but it was essential to have all of the major countries 
involved.  Amb. Vargas said that they have a clear message to 
others: climate policy will not move forward without U.S. 
engagement. 
 
BRASILIA 00000756  004 OF 005 
 
 
 
¶11. (C) Amb. Vargas agreed that technology was key, 
suggesting a protocol on technology diffusion should be an 
element in forthcoming negotiations, as a means of finding 
"innovative modalities" for addressing the scientific, 
financial, and commercial aspects of technology development. 
He said that the DARPA model that had led to creation of the 
Internet was an approach not often mentioned, but one which 
had worked in developing Brazilian ethanol and might well 
help spur private sector investment in new technologies.  Dr. 
Gordon noted that the USG has begun to explore how best to 
address this issue of technology related to climate change, 
stressing that it cannot be viewed just as environmental, but 
as the intersection between environment, growth, and energy. 
 
----------------------------- 
UN Security Council Reform 
----------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C) Amb. Vargas raised Brazil's interest in a UNSC 
permanent seat, citing the importance of the United Nations, 
which he called a "U.S. creation" that should not be 
marginalized.  He said Brazil's desire to cooperate on the 
Middle East and on Haiti were evidence of the positive role 
Brazil could play on the UNSC.  He said Brazil is not opposed 
to a transitional approach, but cannot support a formula that 
would in essence require re-election of new permanent 
members, which would lead to uncertainty.  He suggested that 
new permanent members could be admitted on a temporary basis, 
with a reassessment after ten or fifteen years.  Amb. Vargas 
stressed that the G-4 cannot move UNSC reform forward alone, 
and that it is unlikely to move until the United States takes 
the lead.  By 2030, he said, the world's biggest economies 
will no longer be in Europe, making reform harder and 
increasing the likelihood that the UNSC would become 
irrelevant.  Vargas said that such a situation would present 
a real danger to the UN Charter and international law. 
 
¶13. (C) Dr. Gordon agreed that reform of the multilateral 
institutions is an enormous challenge.  He stressed U.S. 
commitment to the UN system and to the credibility of the 
UNSC.  Amb. Vargas suggested that one of the Bush 
Administration's legacies could be a greater recognition of 
the role that Brazil and India could play in the UNSC.  He 
said that Brazil understands that a ten-member expansion is 
not possible, and that Brazil is not seeking to join a 
"League of Nations council."  But Brazil hopes for a serious 
demonstration of U.S. commitment to reform.  Dr. Gordon 
reminded Amb. Vargas that the United States sees UNSC reform 
as part of a larger effort to achieve a more efficient and 
accountable UN system.  Amb. Vargas assured him that this was 
not a problem for Brazil, and that they were prepared to work 
on it. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Policy Planning Talks as an Element of Broader USG Agenda 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (C) Finally, Dr. Gordon and Amb. Vargas discussed policy 
planning.  Amb. Vargas noted that Brazil is making a bigger 
effort to do long-range planning, citing the annual National 
Conference on International Politics and Foreign Policy and 
efforts to promote U.S. studies in Brazil.  He said Brazil 
would appreciate help to improve both its policy planning and 
American studies programs, which Dr. Gordon said that S/P 
would be happy to do.  The two agreed that the talks had been 
a useful start and should be continued on a semi-annual 
basis.  They agreed to look at the week after the opening of 
UNGA in Washington as a possible date for the next round of 
talks. 
 
 
BRASILIA 00000756  005 OF 005 
 
 
 
¶15. (C) Comment:  This first round of strategic planning 
talks was among a small group of recent USG initiatives to be 
warmly received by Itamaraty and other senior policymakers. 
It was clear that Itamaraty saw this as a sign that the 
United States takes Brazil's current and future role on the 
global stage seriously, and it will pay dividends in our 
broader bilateral and global agenda with the GOB.  The April 
9 talks marked the start of what we hope will be an ongoing 
conversation with Brazil on some of the major issues and 
trends that are reshaping the international environment.  Our 
interest in global partnership with Brazil and belief in the 
potential of that partnership inform our engagement with a 
widening circle of decision-makers in Brazil and across a 
growing range of issues (ref a).  Dr. Gordon's outreach to a 
broader set of governmental and non-governmental partners 
(septel) added a new element to our engagement that will 
encourage Brazilians to think beyond the traditional confines 
of their domestic and South American regional interests.  As 
this process moves forward, our goal is to expand perceptions 
in Brazil of converging core national interests.  A regular 
policy planning dialogue, particularly one that reaches out 
directly to key political, economic, and national security 
constituencies in Brazil, can be an important tool for doing 
so. 
 
¶16. (U) This cable was cleared by S/P. 
 
SOBEL