VZCZCXRO1319
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0600/01 1691637
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171637Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0071
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000600 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM KIRF PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH - TIME TO DEFINE ITS FUTURE? 
 
REFS: A) 07 BELGRADE 1560, B) BELGRADE 299, C) 07 BELGRADE 1742 
 
Summary 
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¶1.  (SBU) The Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) is going through a 
turbulent period.  The recent session of the Holy Assembly of 
Bishops revealed the divide within the church on a range of 
religious and political issues.  With a technical authority taking 
over the functions of the Patriarch, none of the fundamental church 
reform and religious issues on the session agenda could have been 
resolved.  The selection, after Patriarch Pavle's death, of a new 
patriarch will show whether the church is able to modernize.  End 
summary. 
 
Church to Be Run by "Technical Authority" 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Holy Synod of Bishops of the Serbian Orthodox Church 
held its annual session from May 14-21.  Tensions over the 
"succession issue" forced by Patriarch Pavle's illness (Ref A) and 
the Serbian political situation dominated the opening of the 
session.  First on the agenda was the issue of how to deal with the 
Patriarch's incapacitation since November due to illness.  On May 
17, after a heated, two-day discussion, the Holy Synod took over 
"...all the power, duties and functions" of the Patriarch due to his 
inability to perform these.  Mirko Djordjevic, a sociologist 
focusing on religion, told us on May 28 that such a decision was 
without a precedent and amounted to "an attempt to depose the 
Patriarch." 
 
Competitors for the Patriarch's Throne 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Public speculation about likely successors to Patriarch 
Pavle has been rife.  The Church has unsurprisingly been silent on 
the issue.  Media and analysts have put forward several names, among 
which the most often mentioned is that of Amfilohije (Ref B) -- 
Metropolitan of Montenegro and the Coastlands -- who currently 
presides over the Holy Synod and technically "runs" the church. 
Bishop Irinej of Backa and Bishop Nikolaj of Dabar and Bosnia are 
also mentioned. 
 
¶4.  (U) Those familiar with the situation in the SOC argue that the 
ultimate struggle for the throne will be between the reformist and 
conservative wings of the church.  The reformist side includes 
Bishops Jovan of Sumadija, Vasilije of Srem, Irinej of Backa, 
Lavrentije of Sabac, and bishops from the diaspora.  The 
conservative wing is headed by Bishop Artemije of Raska and Prizren, 
with strong support from the "Bosnian lobby," including Nikolaj of 
Dabar.  Outside the SOC, the Bosnian lobby is perceived as extremely 
conservative and tainted by its role in the Bosnian conflict in the 
1990's. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Mirko Djordjevic said the current conflict within the 
church was the biggest one in its history.  Conservatives and 
reformists were in dispute over both religious issues (liturgy, 
re-organization of Dioceses, etc.) and secular politics.  The new 
patriarch to succeed Pavle would play a decisive role in eventual 
modernization of the church, Djordjevic said. 
 
Prospects for SOC with a New Government 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) With the expected departure from office of Prime Minister 
Vojislav Kostunica (DSS), the SOC's most ardent backer, observers 
expect the SOC to lose much of the state support it had enjoyed over 
the past few years.  None of the political groupings likely to form 
the new government - the DS-led "For a European Serbia" coalition, 
the SPS coalition, and the minority parties -- appear to have 
genuine ties to the church.  Religion professor Milan Vukomanovic 
told us on June 5 that much of the ideological bond between the 
church and the state during the populists' reign in the Religion 
Ministry will be lost.  The Ministry drafted and pushed forward for 
adoption of heavily criticized religious law and passed a number of 
related decisions which favored the SOC.  Vukomanovic believes the 
soft influence that the SOC has exercised by controlling the 
religion curriculum in the state educational system would fade away 
once a party other than DSS runs the Education Ministry.  "The 
symphony of state and Church is going to end," he concluded. 
 
¶7.  (U) Additional repercussions for the church might come if the 
new government amends the current Law on Churches and Religious 
Communities (Ref C).  Civil society and other religious communities 
have criticized the law, which distinguishes between seven 
"traditional" communities and allother religious communities, as a 
political attept by DSS to secure prima inter pares status for te 
SOC.  Both "non-traditional" communities and NOs likely will 
continue to exert pressure on thenew governmet to amend the law 
and diminish the OC's privileged status. 
 
Comment 
 
BELGRADE 00000600  002 OF 002 
 
 
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¶8. (SBU) The situation in the Serbian Orthodox Church reflects the 
general atmosphere of the Serbian state and society.  For most of 
its history, the SOC had either an antagonistic or harmonious 
relationship with the state.  With the "symphony" of the SOC and 
state likely to end under a new, pro-European government, the Church 
needs to find a new modus operandi to establish its proper role in 
society and politics.  The SOC has a tremendous reserve of trust 
within Serbian society--its future role could be a positive force 
for change, or it could squander its position with ordinary 
citizens.  The selection of the new Patriarch will show whether the 
Church is capable of answering these demands or if it is likely to 
become a less relevant social institution. 
 
PEDERSON