VZCZCXRO1172
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #0839 1561626
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041626Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2172
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2465
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2760
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000839 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA AND S/P 
IO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER 
USUN FOR KUMAR/PHEE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR EAID UNSC LE SY IR
SUBJECT: LEBANON:  MARCH 14 SECRETARIAT WITH S/P GORDON: LOOKING 
AHEAD TO 2009 ELECTIONS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Middle East Regional developments and the 2009 
election in Lebanon were foremost in the minds of March 14 
Secretariat members who hosted a dinner for Policy Planning Director 
David Gordon during his June 2-3 visit to Lebanon.  Discouraged 
after the May events and the May 21 Doha agreement, the Secretariat 
is nevertheless looking ahead for ways to win the 2009 elections, 
but point to competition with Iranian-funded Hizballah and securing 
the support of Christians as key challenges.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) On June 2, members of the March 14 Secretariat hosted a 
dinner in honor of David Gordon, Director of Policy Planning.  CDA 
Sison, DCM, Pol/Econ Chief, Executive Assistant, Senior LES 
Political Advisor, and Policy Planning officers Todd Deatherage and 
Whitley Wolman also attended the dinner.  Attendees from March 14 
were Fares Suaid, Secretary General of the Secretariat; Qornet 
Shewan  MP Samir Franjieh; Lebanese Forces member Edy Abi Lamaa; 
former MP and advisor to Saad Hariri Ghattas Khoury; member of 
former MP Nassib Lahoud's Democratic Renewal Movement Antoine 
Haddad; and member of the Phalange Party and son-in-law of former 
President Amine Gemayel Michel Mecattaf. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Suaid relayed that March 14 currently is analyzing the 
"side effects" of the May 7 events, but added that March 14 
stalwarts Walid Jumblatt and Saad Hariri are in a much better mood 
after the election of President Michel Sleiman.  He said that March 
14 is often left in the dark about regional developments, such as 
the Syrian-Israeli talks and Iran's relationship with the U.S. after 
recent developments in Iraq.  Souaid further noted that Hizballah 
SYG Hassan Nasrallah is trying to send the message that the 
resistance is the only model, vice negotiations, that can restore 
Arab rights.  Souaid added that March 14 should continue its 
pressure on the issue of Hizballah's weapons in order to balance 
Hizballah's influence; otherwise, President Sleiman will find 
himself "inside the state of Hizballah" after two years. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Antoine Haddad called the May 21 Doha agreement a 
transitional one, stressing that March 14's struggle for an 
independent and sovereign Lebanon remains the same.  The election of 
President Sleiman opens the door for a new way forward, Haddad said, 
and March 14's objective should be to win the parliamentary 
elections scheduled for 2009.  He said that March 14's struggle is 
not a domestic one, but rather has a regional dimension because Iran 
and Syria are implicated.  He said Iran, through various statements, 
is saying that it won a round in Lebanon (events of May 7) and that 
Iran's offensive will continue.  He believed March 14 has enough 
time to reshape itself, but noted that March 14 does not have a road 
map to achieve its goals.  He expressed concerns that the U.S. 
presidential election will have adverse effects on the activities of 
March 14, without elaborating. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Michel Mecattaf, advisor and son-in-law to former President 
Amine Gemayel, said March 14 should reinstate its regular meetings 
and consolidate the alliance.  He said "people believe that March 14 
is on a downward slope and might shift to the March 8 camp."  He 
added that Doha consolidated Hizballah's grip on the Shia community 
and Hariri's grip on the Sunni community.  The struggle during the 
2009 parliamentary elections is going to be in the Christian areas 
and whoever obtains the Christian votes could shift the majority in 
parliament, either toward March 14 or March 8. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Mecattaf also believes that Iran will pour money into its 
allies in order to ensure their success in the next parliamentary 
elections.  He claimed that Iran has allocated $400 million to be 
spent by Gebran Bassil, Michel Aoun's son-in-law, once Bassil 
receives the public works portfolio in the next cabinet.  He said 
this amount will be spent in the predominately Christian Metn region 
in order to consolidate Aoun's popularity in that district which has 
eight MPs.  Mettacaf also said that Iran will raise its 
contributions substantially to reach $1.4 billion to be spent in the 
various regions. 
 
¶7. (U) S/P Director Gordon did not have an opportunity to review 
this message before departing Lebanon. 
 
SISON