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DE RUEHAH #0712/01 1560408
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 040408Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT  PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0937
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 3862
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RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1546
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RHMFIUU/USATHIRD-3A COMMAND GROUP FT MCPHERSON GA
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1355

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 ASHGABAT 000712 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EPET MARR SCUL SNAR SOCI KDEM
TX 
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF NAVCENT 
COMMANDER VADM COSGRIFF 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public 
Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes your 
visit 
 to Turkmenistan as an important opportunity to advance our 
 bilateral dialogue in the area of security cooperation.  Your 
 second visit to Turkmenistan follows Assistant Secretary of 
State 
 Boucher's visit at the end of May.  The U.S. Navy 
International 
 Programs Office Commander, Rear Admiral Carr, who visited in 
April, 
 was the last senior defense official to visit Ashgabat. 
President 
 Bush met briefly with President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov on 
April 
 3 at the NATO Summit in Bucharest.  Now in the second year of 
 his presidency, Berdimuhamedov is increasingly self-confident 
 and will not hesitate to speak his mind.  We believe his 
instincts 
 are generally right, even if his understanding is elementary 
and 
 his implementation timelines unrealistically quick. 
Turkmenistan 
 will gradually bring its standards -- including educational 
and 
 human rights -- more in line with international levels.  But 
he's 
 starting from almost zero with very few on his team who have 
the 
 experience and capacity to implement the reforms he says he 
wants. 
  Like many ex-Soviet governments, Turkmenistan relies too 
heavily 
 on presidential decrees and the power of law-on-paper.  The 
longer-term 
 monumental task will be to change a century of national 
political 
 psychology, the entrenched bureaucracy, and the culture of 
 rent-seeking.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Nearly sixteen months into the post-Niyazov era, 
Turkmenistan is becoming significantly different from the 
international bad-joke pariah state it was under the late 
President-for-Life.  But precisely what Turkmenistan is 
becoming is still a work in progress.  Evidence 
increasingly suggests it could well one day become a 
responsible partner for the United States and a normal 
international player.  Berdimuhamedov's fundamental policies 
 have been promising.  However, he faces an uphill struggle 
 against political traditions that favor autocratic governance 
 models and a bureaucratic capacity stunted by 15 years of 
 Niyazovian repression and solipcism.  The challenge will 
 not be to get new reforms on the books -- Berdimuhamedov is 
already 
beginning to do this -- but rather, to change the attitudes 
and modi operandi of those officials responsible for 
implementing the new policies. 
 
DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS 
 
¶4.  (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov has made a public 
commitment to bring Turkmenistan's laws and practices -- 
including in areas of human rights -- up to international 
standards.  On his order, the country's legal, human rights 
and legislative bodies are working overtime to rewrite or 
draft more than 30 laws and codes, including on religion 
and civic organizations, family, and criminal and criminal 
procedures codes.  The President on April 16 also ordered 
 
ASHGABAT 00000712  002 OF 007 
 
 
that the country's constitution -- revised four times since 
1992 -- be redrafted in time for a September meeting of the 
the massively large, rubber-stamp 
People's Council, which is responsible for approving 
constitutional changes.  While USAID, UN Development Program 
, the OSCE Center and other foreign donors are seeking to 
 offer as much advice as possible, the president's ambitious 
 timeline for constitutional reform provides only minimal 
 opportunity for 
international comment. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In seeking to promote democratic development and 
strengthened respect for human rights, the Embassy is 
working with the newly empowered Institute of Democracy and 
Human Rights, which is one of the government bodies most 
open to and cooperative with foreign donors.  We believe 
that this body, which has a director who clearly enjoys the 
trust of the president, can play a significant role.  In 
January, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs agreed to USAID's 
proposal for cooperation with the Institute.  Areas for 
cooperation include information exchange, the provision of 
legal and technical expertise, and support for increased 
access to information.  The Institute has fully embraced 
USAID as a valued partner.  Together with the Institute, 
USAID's partner, the International Center for 
Not-for-Profit Law, has laid out an ambitious plan for 
cooperation over the next year.  Other USAID partners have 
made or are preparing to make proposals based on feedback 
from the Institute. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Although the president is making progress in 
overhauling Turkmenistan's laws, human rights practices 
continue to lag behind the president's intentions.  RFE/RL 
reporters continue to experience considerable harassment 
from security forces, including efforts to disrupt the 
wedding of one reporter's son.  Small evangelical Christian 
religious groups continue to experience problems with 
registration, and some unregistered groups have experienced 
harassment.  We have heard reports that some individuals 
are continuing to experience trouble with traveling 
abroad, including the daughter of an RFE/RL reporter who we 
previously had been told would be allowed to go overseas. 
While the president last summer released Turkmenistan's 
former Grand Mufti, imprisoned since 2005 under charges of 
complicity in the 2002 attack against former President 
Niyazov's motorcade, only a handful of other individuals 
who were also imprisoned for alleged involvement in the 
attack have been released.  Despite these problems, the 
number of new cases -- and of individuals coming to the 
Embassy seeking assistance with perceived human rights 
complaints -- is down sharply from previous years. 
 
MEDIA 
 
¶7.  (SBU) While most of Turkmenistan's media remains 
state-controlled, President Berdimuhamedov has emphasized 
the need for reform, calling for more creativity and more 
international and political news to better inform readers 
and viewers.  Simultaneously, however, he has noted that a 
principal role for the media is to stimulate patriotism and 
support for reform efforts, and there is no official 
discussion of allowing independent media to develop. 
Within this context, state media have shown gradually 
increasing openness, but still much uncertainty and a lack 
of capacity in attempting to fulfill the president's 
demands.  In particular, the Ministry of Culture and 
Broadcasting has asked specifically for U.S. experts and 
assistance to further develop Turkmenistan's news media. 
This has led to unprecedented Embassy access to and contact 
with state media, but also so far to only minimal 
 
ASHGABAT 00000712  003 OF 007 
 
 
improvements in newsgathering, editing and production 
techniques.  Both broadcast and print media have started to 
cover a wider range of topics, but would not even think of 
challenging or criticizing government policies.  These 
limits are a result of strict self-censorship -- no one 
wants to be the first to try an "unapproved" innovation. 
We beleve there remains potential for coaxing 
Turkmenistan's media further along the road of providing 
more and better information.  A next step in this regard 
could be continued and expanded partnerships with U.S. and 
other foreign media outlets. 
 
EDUCATION 
 
¶8.  (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov and his officials 
repeatedly emphasize that reforming the education sector 
has been one of their top priorities, and he has said to 
U.S. visitors the hardest task is to change the mentality 
of a people.  Standard schooling has returned to the ten 
year-model of the Soviet era from Niyazov's nine-year 
standard.  University education has returned to the 
previous standard of five years, instead of Niyazov's model 
of two years of study and two years of work.  Many new 
university buildings have been built or are under 
construction.  The country is opening "state of the art" 
grade schools and secondary schools.  Recently the 
president announced that any new school construction 
project will only be considered completed when the building 
has full Internet access. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) And yet, to date, the president's (and 
government's) focus has been more on improving the shell 
than on reforming the core of the educational system. 
While there has been little emphasis placed up to now on 
retraining teachers or on modernizing the curricula, there 
have been some clear signs, during recent visits of 
delegations from both Texas A&M and Chadron State College 
(Nebraska), that the government recognizes the links 
between human capacity and curricula and may be considering 
curricula changes for institutions of higher education.  In 
particular, the Minister of Education is eager to re-start 
a Texas A&M partnership that would reform Turkmenistan's 
sole business education program to American standards over 
the next 3-4 years (this project is being fine-tuned for 
review by the Government of Turkmenistan).  At lower 
levels, however, the system -- including some hard-core 
hold-outs like the infamous Nury Bayramov, the Ministry of 
Education's International Relations head -- continues to 
constrain individual initiative and block suggestions for 
improvements and reforms from reaching the Minister.  In 
particular, many returned exchange participants are prevented 
or discouraged from returning to their places of work or 
study.  Despite these problems, there have been some 
glimmers of interest in a Bolashak-like program in which the 
government would provide scholarships to Turkmen students 
to attend U.S. universities. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Action on U.S.-sponsored educational programs is 
focused in USAID and the embassy's Public Diplomacy 
section.  More than 100 Turkmenistan citizens are 
participating in 2008 in the embassy's FLEX (high-school), 
UGRAD (college-level), Turkmenistan AUCA Scholarship 
program (TASP), Teachers Excellence and Achievement (TEA), 
Muskie, Fulbright and Humphrey exchange programs.  Through 
its Quality Learning Program, USAID is seeking to support 
efforts to improve teaching and student assessment 
methodologies, increase teachers' participation in 
curriculum and education policy development, and promote 
development of transparent and efficient school finance and 
management systems.  Most recently, USAID has proposed two 
 
ASHGABAT 00000712  004 OF 007 
 
 
new programs:  1) to assist Turkmenistan to take part in 
the upcoming Trends in International Mathematics and 
Science Study, a rigorous study of student skills 
and knowledge in math and science that will help 
Turkmenistan to bring its education system in line with 
international best practice, and 2) in coordination with 
UNICEF, to improve secondary math, science and advanced 
literacy skills in UNICEF pilot schools.  USAID discussed 
these proposals with Minister of Education Annaamanov May 
15, and is working on a formal proposal for both projects. 
 
FOREIGN POLICY 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Despite his statements that he plans to continue 
the "neutrality" policies of his predecessor, 
Berdimuhamedov has put an unprecedented emphasis on foreign 
affairs to repair Turkmenistan's international and regional 
relations and to become a respected player on the 
international stage.  Under the president's leadership, 
Turkmenistan has reached out to participate actively in 
regional organizations.  He has met with all the leaders in 
the region, as well as with those of other countries of 
importance to Turkmenistan.  China has a strong and growing 
commercial presence in Turkmenistan, and continues to court 
the president through a series of high-level commercial and 
political visits, including a July 2007 Berdimuhamedov trip 
to Beijing focused on natural gas and pipeline deals. 
Presidents Berdimuhamedov and Gul (Turkey) have exchanged 
visits, but bilateral relations continue to be colored more 
by the image of Turkey's lucrative trade and construction 
contracts that are eating up large amounts of money from 
the national budget.  Berdimuhamedov has held positive 
meetings with high-level leaders of international 
organizations (including both the UN and the Organization 
for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and IFIs that have 
led to productive, cooperative relationships.  The UN High 
Commissioner on Human Rights, Louise Arbour, visited 
Turkmenistan in May 2007, and the High Commissioner on 
Religion will visit in September. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has held positive meetings with 
high-level U.S. officials and is well-disposed toward the 
United States.  He made his first trip to the United States 
as president to participate in the UNGA session in 
September 2007, where he also met with Secretary of State 
Rice.  In November 2007, Secretary of Energy Bodman met 
with Berdimuhamedov in Ashgabat, and Berdimuhamedov's 
meeting with President Bush during the April Bucharest NATO 
summit received extensive and very positive media coverage 
in Turkmenistan.  Berdimuhamedov made his first visit to EU 
and NATO headquarters in Brussels in November 2007. 
 
REGIONAL COOPERATION 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Accompanying the president's focus on reaching 
out to Turkmenistan's near and more distant neighbors has 
been an increased effort to participate in and cooperate 
with regional fora.  In part, this represents a recognition 
that Turkmenistan's interests in a number of areas -- 
including trade, energy, and combating narcotics 
trafficking -- are not well-served by continuing President 
Niyazov's go-it-alone approach.  Over the last year, 
Turkmenistan has become an increasingly active player in a 
number of regional fora, including the (counter-narcotics) 
Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Center, 
the Central Asian Trade Investment Framework Agreement 
mechanism (TIFA), and the European Union's Central Asian 
Troika process (Turkmenistan hosted the troika meeting and 
wanted to host TIFA).  Cognizant of its neutral status, it 
has bolstered its previous participation in meetings of the 
 
ASHGABAT 00000712  005 OF 007 
 
 
Commonwealth of Independent States with participation -- 
but only as an observer -- in the Shanghai Cooperation 
Organization and (in its status as a Partnership-for-Peace 
country) NATO.  Turkmenistan is also participating in 
regional reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, sponsoring 
a number of Afghan students at its universities and 
pedagogical institutes, and agreeing in early April to 
bolster by 2010 the electricity it is already selling to 
Turkmenistan by an additional 300 Megawatts.  The president 
also agreed to extend the current price at which 
Turkmenistan is selling electricity to Afghanistan -- 2 
cents per kilowatt hour -- to 2010. 
 
ECONOMY AND FINANCE 
 
¶14.  (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov has stated repeatedly, 
in many fora, that he wants to develop an 
international-standard market economy and to promote 
foreign investment.  To those ends, he has placed a new 
priority over the past eight months on promoting economic 
and financial reform.  Turkmenistan has announced that it 
will redenominate its currency in 2009, lopping off three 
zeros, and has already unified the country's dual exchange 
rates.  The president has stated that some state 
enterprises will be privatized -- though not in "strategic" 
sectors like oil and gas, electricity, textiles, 
construction, transportation, and communications.  He has 
signed a new foreign investment law, which, among other 
things, guarantees resident foreign businessmen and their 
families one-year, multi-entry visas, and approved changes 
to the tax code.  The president divided the overworked 
Ministry of Economy and Finance into two bodies -- a 
Ministry of Economy and Development, and a Ministry of 
Finance, and he has created a Supreme Auditing Chamber with 
the goal of providing transparency in the budget process. 
In a notable development, the president also announced that 
he will abolish the opaque extrabudgetary funds that were 
prone under his predecessor to misuse and corruption. 
Finally, the state has slowly begun to raise the price of 
electricity and price of vehicle fuel.  These measures 
could be part of an early effort to phase out the state's 
 extensive and tremendously expensive subsidies system. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Even though the president has reshaped his 
bureaucracy, put in place the structures that theoretically 
should help promote a market economy, and opened 
Turkmenistan to cooperation with IFIs, the lack of basic 
understanding and bureaucratic capacity remains an enormous 
impediment to change.  New reforms are being rolled out 
with inadequate preparation, understanding of their 
consequences and explanation -- and are leading to 
increased public dissatisfaction.  USAID is working through 
its contractor, BearingPoint, to implement a new program to 
increase bureaucratic capacity and to support growth of 
private business in Turkmenistan.  Department of Treasury 
representatives will also visit Turkmenistan in June to 
identify areas where Treasury might play a role in 
promoting reform, should funding be available. 
 
ENERGY 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas 
reserves, but Russia's near monopoly of its energy exports 
has left Turkmenistan receiving much less than the world 
price and overly beholden to Russia, although Gazprom has 
agreed to pay "world price" starting in 2009.  Pipeline 
diversification, including both a pipeline to China 
proposed for 2009 and the possibility of resurrecting plans 
for Trans-Caspian and Trans-Afghanistan pipelines that 
would avoid the Russian routes, and construction of 
 
ASHGABAT 00000712  006 OF 007 
 
 
high-voltage electricity lines to transport excess energy 
to Turkmenistan's neighbors, including Afghanistan, would 
not only enhance Turkmenistan's economic and political 
sovereignty, but also help fuel new levels of prosperity 
throughout the region.  Berdimuhamedov has told U.S. 
interlocutors he recognizes the need for more options and 
has taken the first steps to this end, but he also took the 
steps needed to increase the volume of gas exports to 
Russia, signing an agreement (with Russia and Kazakhstan) 
in Moscow in December 2007 to enlarge and rebuild a 
non-functioning Soviet-era Caspian littoral pipeline.  To 
date, little progress has been publicized on this project. 
He will require encouragement and assistance from the 
international community if he is to maintain a course of 
diversification in the face of ongoing Russian efforts to 
keep Turkmenistan from weaning itself away from Russia. 
 
¶17.  (SBU) One of the biggest challenges that 
Turkmenistan's hydrocarbon sector will have to face, if it 
is to succeed in pipeline diversification, is the need for 
increased natural-gas production.  Turkmenistan produced a 
reported 72.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2007, a figure 
that barely meets its existing domestic needs and export 
commitments.  The president directed that production should 
increase to 81.5 bcm in 2008.  Even larger increases will 
be needed as/if new pipelines come online.  While 
Turkmenistan has welcomed foreign companies to work its 
offshore (primarily oil) Caspian blocks, it has up to now 
largely rejected allowing foreign energy companies to work 
its onshore gas fields, maintaining that it can handle the 
drilling itself.  But onshore natural gas production offers 
some tough challenges, including ultra-deep, high-pressure, 
high-sulphur, sub-salt drilling, which requires special 
skills and technologies and massive investment.  One 
Western analyst suggested that costs could run as high as 
$100 billion over the next five years.  No one outside of 
the Turkmen government believes Turkmenistan has either the 
skills or the financial resources needed.  U.S. policy has 
been to promote onshore production by major Western oil 
companies.  We know there has been strong debate within the 
government about this, and we have watched views evolve. 
We believe, in the end, there will be major Western 
companies working onshore -- but we aren't there yet. 
 
COUNTER-NARCOTICS COOPERATION 
 
¶18.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov's efforts to distance himself 
gradually from Niyazov's "Golden Age," we-have-no-problems 
rhetoric have led him to acknowledge publicly that 
Turkmenistan has serious problems with narcotics 
trafficking and addiction, primarily opiates from 
Afghanistan.  In January 2008, he established and funded a 
new DEA-like State Counter-Narcotics Service that will be 
responsible for both interdiction and demand-reduction 
efforts, and he put in charge an activist official, Murat 
Islamov, that the international donor community both 
respects and trusts.  While Islamov already has a 
headquarters building, he is literally building his new 
service from the ground up.  During a meeting with embassy 
officers in April, he welcomed whatever training and 
equipment the United States can provide.  With a promised 
infusion of $20 million in CENTCOM counter-narcotics funds 
in FY 2009 and the possibility of a similar amount in 2010, 
the embassy country team is now discussing how the United 
States can most effectively respond to Islamov's request. 
 
SECURITY 
 
¶19.  (SBU) The U.S. security relationship with Turkmenistan 
continues to unfold, with slow but consistent cooperation. 
 
ASHGABAT 00000712  007 OF 007 
 
 
Although basing is not an option, Turkmenistan remains an 
important conduit for the U.S. military to Afghanistan. 
Maintaining blanket overflight permission and the military 
refueling operation at Ashgabat Airport remains a key U.S. 
goal.  CENTCOM and Turkmenistan's military maintain an 
active military-to-military cooperation plan, and CENTCOM 
and the Nevada National Guard (operating through the State 
Partnership Program and CENTCOM's military cooperation 
program) have a productive counter-narcotics program that 
has funded training and completion of two border-crossing 
stations on the Iranian and Afghan borders.  A third 
border-crossing station is under construction at Farap on 
the Uzbekistan border, with two more to follow.  With the 
assistance of the Embassy's EXBS program, the Embassy works 
to strengthen Turkmenistan's border security and to 
increase its ability to interdict smuggling of weapons of 
mass destruction. 
 
¶20. (SBU) General of the Army Agageldi Mammetgeldiyev has 
remained the Minister of Defense since 2002.  Mammetgeldiyev 
is a trained medical doctor and previously was the Chief of 
the State Border Service (SBS).  His primary deputy and 
acting Chief of the General Staff, COL Muhammetguly Atabayev, 
 is also a medical doctor.  The only general officer in the 
ministry is the minister.  The Ministry of Defense (MOD) and 
Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) are in the process of 
transferring emergency response-related responsibilities 
to a new organization, the State Service for Emergency 
Situations.  The military completed its one "major" annual 
battalion-level exercise on May 5th, which featured a hostage 
 rescue scenario and defense against an attacking enemy force. 
  Military reforms are ongoing, but the extent, direction, and 
 opportunities for international involvement -- including U.S. 
 support -- remain ill-defined and limited.  Mammetgeldiyev 
 visited your headquarters in Bahrain in January 2008, 
 participated in the CENTCOM Commander-hosted CHOD Conference 
 in Tampa -- his first visit to the United States -- in 
February 
 2008, and has accepted a Secretary of Defense offer to visit 
 the United States in September 2008.  General-Major Alovov, 
who 
 accompanied Mammetgeldiyev to Bahrain, remains the SBS 
Chief. 
 
¶21. (SBU) Current U.S. security assistance programs focus on 
improving the communications capability of the Turkmenistan 
armed 
 forces in the areas of emergency response and border 
security, 
 English language ability, and in building a future leadership 
 with western principles.  The EXBS program has provided 
support 
 for operational upkeep of the former USCG Cutter Point 
Jackson, 
 a U.S. Excess Defense Article donation to the State Border 
Service 
 in 2001, which is one of the few operational vessels in the 
 Turkmenistan maritime security forces.  Turkmenistan has 
received 
 FMF/IMET since 1997 and in FY08 received $0/$300K. 
CURRAN