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DE RUEHAN #0439 1711421
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191421Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1383
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
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RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
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UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000439 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, DS/IP/AF 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS PHUM CN
SUBJECT:  ANJOUAN ISLAND ELECTIONS CALM, RUNOFF SCHEDULED 
 
REF:  ANTANANARIVO 347 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (U)  Official results from the Anjouan island presidential 
elections released by the Constitutional Court (CC) on June 18 show 
candidates Mohamed Djaanfari and Moussa Toybou well ahead of the 
other three candidates.  Djaanfari won 44.18 percent of the vote, 
while Toybou came in a close second with 40.12 percent.  With no 
candidate over 50 percent, a runoff election will take place on June 
¶29.  Voter turnout was modest at 42.8 percent of the approximately 
128,000 registered voters. 
 
¶2. (U)  Observing on the ground in Anjouan, the DCM reported the 
first round of island presidential elections on Anjouan June 15 were 
free, fair, and transparent overall, with the exception of minor 
tension and a late start in ousted Colonel Mohamed Bacar's home 
village of Barakani.  In addition, claims of irregularities in 
Toybou's stronghold of Nioumakele appear to have been upheld by the 
CC in overturning the preliminary results that had Toybou ahead by 
less than 100 votes.  The other three candidates scored well only in 
their home villages and all tallied less than five percent of the 
votes. 
 
¶3. (U)  International election observers from the Arab League, the 
International Organization of the Francophonie, the African Union 
(AU), the Indian Ocean Commission, and U.S. Embassy Antananarivo 
circulated while Tanzanian, Sudanese and Comoran troops effectively 
maintained calm and order.  Noting that the process was 
characterized by calm and discipline, the head of the AU Commission, 
Jean Ping, congratulated the Anjouanese people "for their maturity 
during the entire period of the electoral campaign."  In a formal 
statement issued June 18, Ping also commended the Comoran National 
Army, supported by the AU Electoral and Security Assistance Mission 
to the Comoros (MAES), for maintaining security throughout the 
electoral process; thanked bilateral and multilateral partners for 
their financial support for the first round of the election; and 
appealed for continued assistance through the second round. 
 
¶4. (U)  Toybou is an engineer, not a politician, believed to be in 
his 40s.  While Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi has not 
formally endorsed either candidate, he is widely believed to support 
Toybou.  Approximately 60 years old, Djaanfari, a retired member of 
the French Army now turned businessman with interests in maritime 
transport, was a losing candidate in the 2006 elections on Anjouan 
for Union President. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT:  The runoff between Djaanfari and Toybou will 
likely be an extremely close call, decided by several variables. 
One will be an ability to attract voters from the camps of the three 
losers.  Another will be an ability to motivate abstaining voters to 
come to the polls and produce a less disappointing turnout.  We have 
no evidence that this election was anything other than free and fair 
and expect the sequel to be equally transparent.  However, 
especially if the outcome is very close, the loser is almost certain 
to claim foul.  A decisive victory by either candidate would clearly 
be preferable at this stage of Comoran democracy to a razor-thin 
outcome, but that will be up to the voters to decide...  END 
COMMENT. 
MARQUARDT