VZCZCXYZ0011
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAK #1034/01 1560425
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 040425Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6458
INFO RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 4291

UNCLAS ANKARA 001034 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: SENV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY WILL SIGN THE KYOTO PROTOCOL 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Nudged by the EU, and seeking greater influence 
in post-Kyoto negotiations, the GOT announced on June 2 that it 
would begin a process to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.  The GOT hopes 
the parliament will approve the ratification before its July recess, 
clearing the way for Turkey to participate in the UN Climate Change 
Convention in December 2008 as a member of the Protocol.  Turkey has 
been dissatisfied sitting at the margins of previous conferences and 
wants to carve out a more robust role in setting the implementation 
mechanisms for Kyoto.  Turkey seeks to define a "special status" as 
an Annex I country and will likely seek relief from Annex I emission 
reduction targets.  Accession to Kyoto furthers Turkey's EU 
candidacy through closer harmonization with the EU's environmental 
policies.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Following the June 2 Cabinet meeting, GOT spokesman Cemil 
Cicek announced that Turkey will join the Kyoto Protocol and will 
send a bill for ratification to parliament shortly.  Cicek's 
announcement follows a similar announcement made on May 30 by 
Environment Minister Veysel Eroglu. 
 
Why join Kyoto? 
--------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) There are several political and economic reasons why 
Turkey has decided to ratify the Protocol.  Perhaps the most 
important is Turkey's determination to influence the negotiations 
for a post-Kyoto framework.  At the last UN Climate Change 
Conference in Bali in December 2007, the GOT felt isolated and 
marginalized, mainly because it is not a member of any negotiating 
block.  Cicek argued that joining Kyoto now would give Turkey the 
influence and stature it needs to favorably shape post-Kyoto 
implementation measures. 
 
Kyoto as Part of EU Accession 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Another important factor in Turkey's decision to join 
Kyoto is its bid to join the EU.  In recent trips to Ankara, French 
Negotiator for Climate Change Brice Lalonde and British Foreign 
Secretary David Miliband have raised climate change with high-level 
GOT counterparts.  Under the auspices of the EU Presidency, the 
French have offered to host a symposium in Turkey to examine 
Turkey's claim for "special status" and how it can play a more 
influential role in the post-2012 negotiations.  Similarly, the 
Brits have offered a "strategic dialogue" with Turkey on climate 
change with a kick-off event planned for fall. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In public remarks, TGNA Environment Committee Chair Haluk 
Ozdalga cited the link between Turkey's EU candidacy and its desire 
to join Kyoto.  He noted that no European country besides Turkey has 
declined to ratify Kyoto.  He also mentioned the importance of 
Turkey joining one of the negotiating blocks to gain influence in 
the process.  Gole told us Turkey had not made a decision but is 
considering joining the Balkan Group.  According to French 
Commercial Attach Sylvain Geranton, the EU is considering whether to 
form a group of EU aspirant countries which would give countries 
like Turkey, Croatia, Macedonia, etc. a way to link into EU 
processes.  Ozdalga also mentioned the opportunity costs for Turkey 
of not joining Kyoto.  He said Turkey was missing out while China 
was benefiting from sizable funding available through Clean 
Development Mechanisms for investments in reduced carbon emissions. 
 
 
Kyoto Shows GOT Action on Climate Change 
---------------------------------------- 
¶6.  (SBU) Local press commented that the GOT decided to approve the 
Kyoto Protocol as result of the personal efforts of Environment 
Minister Veysel Eroglu, who reportedly lobbied Cabinet counterparts. 
  Ministry of Environment Acting Department Head for International 
Relations Deniz Gole told us public opinion sees the drought 
conditions in southeastern Turkey as tied to global warming, and the 
GOT's decision on Kyoto is a way for the government to show it is 
taking action on this issue. 
 
GOT Accession Process... 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The GOT's announcement to join the Protocol is just the 
first in a multi-step process for Turkey's accession to Kyoto.  The 
MFA is now tasked with preparing a draft law which will require the 
signature of all GOT ministers before submission to parliament.  The 
law will be debated by the foreign affairs committee and the 
subcommittee on environment. It may also go to the plans and budget 
committee as well as energy committee.  Following a vote by the 
Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA), the law will be submitted to 
the President for his approval. 
 
....And Timing 
-------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Once Turkey deposits its ratification instrument with the 
UN, there is a 90-waiting period before the formal accession is 
recognized.  Turkey's decision to move now on Kyoto ratification 
seems to be driven by its determination to become a voice at the 
table at the next United Nations Climate Change Conference scheduled 
for December in Poznan, Poland.  In order to make this timing work, 
the TGNA will need to vote in favor of the Protocol prior to the 
TNGA's summer recess, which begins in July. 
 
Cost of Kyoto Accession? 
------------------------ 
¶9.  (SBU) Not everyone agrees that Turkey's accession to the 
Protocol is positive.  The Ministry of Industry has raised concerns 
about the cost to the economy of implementing the Protocol. 
Analyses we have seen suggest that cement, iron, steel and other 
heavy industries would likely incur substantial costs to cut carbon 
emissions.  Analysts estimated the impact on the Turkish economy 
could reach USD 5 billion. 
 
Special Status Exemption from Costs 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) In response to arguments of economic harm, Cicek said 
there would be no cost now for Turkey to join because emissions 
reductions will not be implemented until post-2012.  Gole told us 
Turkey will continue to seek a "special status" under Annex I after 
it has ratified the Protocol.  It is not clear what specifically is 
meant by a special status.  Most likely, Turkey will seek exemptions 
from carbon emission reduction requirements for Annex I countries.