VZCZCXRO2885
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #1733/01 1771411
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 251411Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1094
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001733 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ET
SUBJECT: UNITY FOR DEMOCRACY & JUSTICE (UDJ): KEEPING HOPE FOR 
ETHIOPIAN DEMOCRACY ALIVE 
 
REF: ADDIS 145 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) On June 24, 2008 PolCouns met with Dr. Yacob Hailemariam, 
the Head of Foreign Affairs of the newly formed opposition political 
party, Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ).  UDJ is unique as its 
supporters represent most major ethnic groups and its leadership is 
composed of most major leaders from the former Coalition for Unity 
and Democracy (CUD), which successfully campaigned and saw a 
significant victory in the 2005 elections.  After its first meeting 
was shut down by the federal police, UDJ managed to hold its 
founding Congress on June 18, 2008. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The party's platform is based on three major principles: 1) 
national appeal; 2) democratic values; and 3) peaceful means of 
struggle.  UDJ expressed a willingness to join an opposition 
coalition in the long-term, but only with non-violent groups that 
respect the constitution of the FDRE.  UDJ also expressed concern 
that the National Electoral Board (NEB) and ruling Ethiopian 
People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) may attempt to block 
finalization of its party registration process.  UDJ appealed to the 
USG to advocate for a re-opening of political space to ensure that 
the 2010 elections are not a repeat of the 2005 electoral turmoil. 
If the upcoming elections are not free and fair, Dr. Yacob believes 
the consequences will be violent and dire for the country. 
 
 
WHAT MAKES UDJ DIFFERENT: THE PARTY PLATFORM 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) UDJ is a national party, not an ethnic one, with members 
from Amhara, Oromiya, Tigray, Somali, Southern Nations, and Afar 
regions.  Dr. Yacob strongly criticizes the EPDRF's tactics of 
injecting ethnic loyalties into politics, citing how it has 
dangerously divided the country.  Since the party is relatively new 
and still is not finally registered with the NEB, the amount of 
outreach UDJ is able to do is modest; Dr. Yacob admits there is much 
room for improvement.  But one of the party's first priorities after 
becoming registered is to open offices throughout Ethiopia, paying 
careful attention to include those not typically represented, 
including regions on the periphery, Muslims, the youth, and women 
(it is notable that the UDJ chairperson is a woman, Birtukan 
Midekssa).  Although there are some Muslim members, UDJ looks to 
target greater Muslim representation. 
 
¶4. (U) UDJ is highly committed to democratic principles, Dr. Yacob 
argued.  In addition to advocating democratic values and human 
rights in Ethiopia, as do many opposition parties, Dr. Yacob argued 
that the party itself is run by far more democratic principles and 
procedures than other political parties.  Every member has a right 
to express his or her opinions without sanctions for dissent. 
 
¶5. (U) Dr. Yacob emphasized that UDJ is committed to peaceful means 
of struggle and is categorically non-violent.  "We don't believe 
government should be changed by the gun," Dr. Yacob stated. "Even if 
armed struggle were feasible," he noted, "we do not accept it as a 
tactic as it would have devastating impacts for the country."   He 
was also adamant about the UDJ not being affiliated with other 
opposition groups that have expressed willingness to employ violence 
as a political tactic.  Dr. Yacob was clear in noting that UDJ has 
no contact with either armed insurgent groups like the Oromo 
Liberation Front (OLF) or Dr. Berhanu Nega, 2005 mayor-elect of 
Addis Ababa who reportedly recently initiated dialogue with the 
OLF. 
 
 
WILL SEPARATE OPPOSITION GROUPS SPLIT THE VOTE? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6. (SBU) When asked about the potential for allying with other 
opposition parties, Dr. Yacob thought it was too ambitious in the 
short-term since UDJ is still a fledgling group.  But in the 
long-term, he saw great potential for a large-scale opposition 
coalition to dislodge the EDPRF in the 2010 elections.  However, 
there were many caveats to UDJ joining a coalition.  Dr. Yacob 
emphasized that UDJ is only willing to ally with parties that 
subscribe to its own core values; which essentially leaves no room 
for coalitions with parties that do not adhere to a strict policy of 
non-violence.  Still, he acknowledged that forming a coalition with 
other opposition groups in the medium term may prove an attractive 
option to the electorate -- as CUD did in 2005 -- and would 
eliminate the threat of splitting the vote among too many small 
groups 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001733  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
 
POTENTIAL ROADBLOCK: THE NEB 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) UDJ has submitted its application to the NEB and is 
currently awaiting final registration.  Dr. Yacob insisted that 
there should be no reason for the NEB to reject or even postpone the 
application, since UDJ was very meticulous about doing everything 
according to the law.  Therefore, a rejection of UDJ's application 
would be a "flagrant violation of the law," according to Dr. Yacob. 
UDJ is willing to make whatever amendments the NEB requires, but the 
party is very concerned about being thwarted by the NEB and EPDRF. 
 
 
 
WHAT CAN THE USG DO FOR ETHIOPIA'S DEMOCRATIZATION? 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Dr. Yacob asked the USG to appeal to EPDRF to re-open 
political space to ensure that the 2010 elections will be free and 
fair. "This country is becoming a police state," he said, "and if 
the EPDRF listens to anyone, it's the U.S." He reiterated several 
times throughout the meeting that UDJ only wants to come to power 
through democratic means, and he asked the USG to help ensure that 
that would be possible. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Dr. Yacob also appealed to PolCouns to ensure that UDJ's 
application was fairly and neutrally considered by the NEB. PolCouns 
assured Yacob that he and the Ambassador would highlight to the NEB 
in their July 1 meeting that we are watching UDJ's registration 
process and expect it to be quick and transparent. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Dr. Yacob believed that the USG never identified its 
interests within the former CUD party.  Pointing out that many of 
the UDJ leaders were educated in America and many of their children 
are U.S. citizens, he attempted to illustrate how closely aligned 
UDJ is with U.S. interests.  "We are Jeffersonian Democrats; Meles 
is a Communist," he stated.  He added that UDJ only wants the same 
democratic principles for Ethiopia on which the U.S. was founded. 
 
 
GRIM PREDICTIONS IF 2010 ELECTIONS ARE REPEAT OF 2005 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) When asked to predict the consequences of 2010 elections 
if the ruling party does not alter its current tactics of harassment 
and intimidation, Dr. Yacob bluntly stated, "If we don't have free 
elections in 2010, I don't know what will happen to this country." 
However, he was certain there would be a violent reaction from 
voters.  Increased poverty, food shortages, and inflation are all 
important issues at stake in the upcoming elections.  They are also 
likely to exacerbate people's anger if they believe elections were 
not free and fair, leading to a violent backlash. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Within the confines of Ethiopia's ever-shrinking political 
space, UDJ has somehow found enough room to form a truly national 
opposition party.  UDJ is a party comprised of well-educated, 
impressive leaders espousing democratic principles, and reaching 
beyond the Ethiopian tradition of ethnic loyalties or cults of 
personality.  It is definitely a step in the right direction for 
Ethiopian politics, and will undoubtedly provide an attractive 
alternative to voters in 2010. 
 
YAMAMOTO