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DE RUEHUJA #1227/01 1761506
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 241506Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3214
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0279
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 9490
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ABUJA 001227 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, H 
H PLEASE PASS TO CODEL BERMAN 
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID EPET NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL BERMAN (JUNE 2008) 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
Introduction 
------------ 
¶1. (SBU) U.S. Mission Nigeria warmly welcomes Congressman 
Howard Berman and his Congressional delegation to Abuja. 
Your visit comes just after President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua has 
completed his first year in office.  Though the President 
came to power through deeply flawed elections in April 2007, 
he has been praised by many Nigerians and the international 
community for his pledges to reform Nigeria's political 
system, improve the economy, and instill a culture of respect 
for the rule of law.  However, after one year of his 
administration, observers are growing restless to see 
Yar'Adua's positive rhetoric translate into tangible results. 
 A May 2008 opinion poll indicated that President Yar'Adua's 
popularity dropped to approximately 48% from its high of over 
70% in September 2007.  The Yar'Adua government inherited 
many serious challenges.  Decades of unaccountable rule 
suppressed Nigeria's democratic institutions, eroded health 
and education infrastructure, failed to combat HIV/AIDS, and 
impoverished the population.  Revenues from crude oil, 
virtually the country's only meaningful export, amount to 
just a dollar a day for each of Nigeria's 145 million people, 
and most of this has disappeared into the hands of a very 
small, corrupt elite.  An ongoing crisis in electricity 
generation and delivery has crippled the relatively tiny 
manufacturing sector.  Despite successful macroeconomic 
reforms in recent years, most Nigerians live in poverty. 
Stability and security in the North (where most of Nigeria's 
estimated 70 million Muslims live) and the oil and 
gas-producing Niger Delta region are challenged by poor 
governance, corruption, and communal conflict.  The people of 
Nigeria are starting to lose patience, and the Yar'Adua 
administration is under significant pressure to make needed 
reforms soon. 
 
Politics of the Moment 
---------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) Nigeria had its third consecutive general election 
in April 2007, and in May 2007 President Yar'Adua of the 
ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) assumed office. 
Despite major flaws in the April 2007 elections, the 
transition from Olusegun Obasanjo to Umaru Yar'Adua was the 
first successful civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in 
Nigeria's history: a noteworthy achievement.  However, most 
independent foreign and domestic observers agreed that the 
election which brought Yar'Adua to power was deeply flawed. 
Two opposition candidates filed challenges to the outcome, 
and although President Yar'Adua's election was upheld in 
February 2008 by the Presidential Election Tribunal, his 
challengers have appealed that decision to the Supreme Court. 
 It is not certain when the Supreme Court will rule on the 
case, though many observers suggest it may be as soon as 
August or as late as October 2008.  Until the conclusion of 
the electoral challenge, President Yar'Adua's tenure in 
office is not truly secure, and this may be affecting his 
government's performance. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The President himself has admitted that his election 
was flawed, and in August 2007 he established a 22-member 
Electoral Reform Commission (ERC) which is charged with 
making recommendations to improve future elections in 
Nigeria.  The USG as well as several other donor partners 
have helped fund technical assistance workshops for the ERC. 
The ERC was somewhat quiet during its first six months, but 
has become more visible during the past two months as it 
conducts a series of public hearings around the country.  The 
ERC is expected to present its findings in August 2008. 
However, many observers believe that even if the President is 
genuinely committed to electoral reform, he will not take any 
significant actions on that front until the challenge to his 
own election has concluded and his tenure is secured. 
 
¶3. (SBU) President Yar'Adua is reportedly planning to 
reshuffle his cabinet soon.  Several key presidential 
advisors resigned or retired recently, most of whom were 
holdovers from the Obasanjo administration.  It is not clear 
 
ABUJA 00001227  002 OF 005 
 
 
when the cabinet changes will be announced.  It is possible 
that this too is on hold until after the Supreme Court rules 
on the validity of the presidential election. 
 
¶4. (U) Both the National Assembly and the courts have enjoyed 
greater freedom from executive interference under Yar'Adua 
than his predecessor.  The National Assembly has used this 
freedom to hold  hearings on areas of concern, including 
suspicious sales of land by the government in the Federal 
Capital Territory (FCT) and lack of improvement in the power 
supply despite the previous government's allocation of 
billions of dollars for power projects.  The National 
Assembly seems to be taking its oversight role more 
seriously, though the institution is still quite weak in 
comparison to the executive branch.  The Assembly is very 
interested in building relationships with the U.S. Congress 
as it looks to develop institutional capacity.  The Nigerian 
judiciary has been lauded by the public for its increasing 
independence.  Courageous judges have overturned six 
gubernatorial elections and dozens of National Assembly 
seats.  However, some cases are still before the courts, and 
there are some credible allegations of bribery of certain 
judges; in addition, all of Nigeria's criminal courts are 
seriously backlogged. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Part of President Yar'Adua's pledge to instill 
respect for the rule of law is continuing Nigeria's 
anti-corruption efforts, which are most visibly led by the 
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).  Though many 
observers were pleased that the EFCC seemed invigorated in 
the early days of the new administration, bringing charges 
against six former governors and investigating many other 
governors and high-ranking former public officials, progress 
has slowed since early 2008.  The government removed the 
internationally recognized head of the EFCC, Nuhu Ribadu, in 
late December 2007.  Since then, ongoing cases seem to have 
stalled.  The President appointed a new EFCC Chairwoman, 
Farida Waziri, in May 2008, and we look forward to seeing how 
the agency performs under her leadership.  However, some 
observers have expressed concerns about possible conflicts of 
interest because Mrs. Waziri is reportedly close to some of 
the accused governors currently under EFCC investigation. 
 
Nigeria's Role on the World Stage 
--------------------------------- 
¶6.  (U) Nigeria is a major contributor to African 
peacekeeping initiatives.  It currently has troops in Darfur 
and has pledged to send a battalion to Somalia.  You may wish 
to offer condolences to government officials, as Nigeria lost 
46 soldiers from one of its Darfur peacekeeping battalions in 
a road accident (while the soldiers were back in Nigeria and 
en route to their home base) in May 2008.  Nigeria is the 
major player in the Economic Community of West African States 
(ECOWAS), and the headquarters of the regional organization 
is in Abuja.  Nigeria has the largest population in Africa 
(reportedly 145 million) and rightly sees itself as a leader 
not only in the continent but in world affairs.  Nigeria has 
campaigned for United Nations reform and believes it deserves 
a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.  President 
Yar'Adua had a very successful visit to Washington in 
December 2007, which included a White House meeting with 
President Bush.  He visited France and South Africa in June 
¶2008.  Both President Yar'Adua and Foreign Minister Maduekwe 
will be in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt for an African Union Summit 
meeting during your delegation's visit to Abuja, but we 
expect that you will be able to meet with the Vice President, 
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan.  Both the President and the Foreign 
Minister have made public statements in June 2008 calling for 
free and fair elections in Zimbabwe.  Under direction from 
Yar'Adua, the Foreign Minister has been in regular touch with 
his counterparts on encouraging the GOZ to do the right thing 
on elections.  Former Nigerian Head of State General Yakubu 
Gowon is scheduled to lead a 30-member ECOWAS delegation to 
observe Zimbabwe's June 27th run-off poll.  (Note: Given the 
June 22 announcement that the opposition has pulled out of 
the Zimbabwean election, it is unclear whether the ECOWAS 
observer delegation will still proceed to Zimbabwe.  End 
note.) 
 
ABUJA 00001227  003 OF 005 
 
 
 
Niger Delta 
----------- 
¶7. (SBU) For several years, criminal gangs and militant 
groups have attacked individuals and property in the volatile 
Niger Delta region.  Upon assuming office, President Yar'Adua 
pledged to make resolving the Niger Delta crisis a top 
priority.  He acknowledged the need for greater security, 
infrastructure development, and job creation in the 
oil-producing region and pledged to hold a Niger Delta summit 
early in his administration.  One year later, that summit has 
not yet happened, though plans are underway for a 
"Consultative Steering Committee" to begin discussions on the 
Niger Delta to be led by Ibrahim Gambari, a Nigerian citizen 
who is scheduled to be on leave of absence from his position 
as UN Undersecretary General for this purpose.  However, many 
Niger Delta stakeholders have decried Gambari's upcoming 
role.  This Committee may begin to meet in July or August 
¶2008.  In the mean time, attacks by criminals or militants 
(some of whom claim to be part of an amorphous umbrella group 
called MEND - the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger 
Delta) on pipelines, oil platforms, and other infrastructure 
as well as kidnappings of both Nigerians and expatriates 
continue to disrupt oil production.  On June 19, a group of 
militants attacked Shell's Bonga field 75 miles offshore of 
Bayelsa state.  The attack shut-in the field's production 
(approximately 200,000 barrels per day); in a related 
incident, the same group kidnapped an American citizen. 
(Note: The American was released by his captors the next day. 
 End Note.)  Another group of suspected militants blew up an 
oil pipeline near Chevron's Escravos terminal on June 21, 
temporarily halting 120,000 barrels per day of production. 
Reports are that Nigeria is losing approximately USD 84 
million per day on shut-in oil production.  On June 23, a 
spokesman claiming to represent the fractious MEND sent a 
message to the press claiming it is ready to begin a 
"unilateral cease fire" until further notice.  (Note: MEND is 
a term used loosely by a number of factional groups with both 
political and criminal elements. End note.)   The initial 
patience shown  by various militants to the new 
administration in their first months in office is definitely 
wearing thin. 
 
The Economy/Global Food Crisis 
------------------------------ 
¶8. (SBU) The Yar'Adua administration inherited solid 
macroeconomic figures and over the last 12 months those 
figures have stayed steady.  According to the International 
Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria's real GDP growth was 6% in 
2006, and 6.3% in 2007, with 9% forecast for 2008.  Inflation 
remains in the (high) single digits (about 9.4%) and fiscal 
restraint has been maintained in the 2008 budget. Despite the 
strong macroeconomic figures, the trade regime and investment 
climate have not improved.  Nigeria has failed to uphold its 
commitments to the World Trade Organization and continues to 
have high tariffs and bans on a number of imports, including 
agricultural products and packaging materials.  Job creation 
and new investment are still hampered by infrastructure 
problems, legal barriers to market access, high interest 
rates and lack of investor confidence in the rule of law. 
 
¶9. (U) Though there have not yet been major food shortages in 
Nigeria, prices for staples such as rice, maize, and millet 
have doubled since December 2007.  High world prices for 
commodities are compounded by shrinking production in Nigeria 
due to lack of fertilizer and trade policies that either ban 
outright the import of staple food items or impose high 
import tariffs on agricultural products.  However, in May 
2008 the GON agreed to lift the duty on imported rice for a 
six month period and released funds for the purchase of 
500,000 metric tons of rice.  As expected, this has improved 
supply and at lQt temporarily reduced rice prices in the 
country. 
 
PEPFAR Nigeria 
--------------- 
¶10. (U) Nigeria is the third-largest focus country for the 
President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). 
 
ABUJA 00001227  004 OF 005 
 
 
PEPFAR/Nigeria is jointly managed by USAID, CDC, and DOD and 
the program is implemented by over 40 prime partners.  In 
2008, PEPFAR/Nigeria is receiving $450 million to increase 
access to anti-retroviral therapy, prevention activities, and 
HIV-related care throughout the country.  As of April 2008, 
USG-funded implementing partners are providing treatment to 
150,000 Nigerians.  Over the last 5 years, more than 2.5 
million Nigerians have received HIV counseling and testing 
services from PEPFAR-supported programs.  The PEPFAR/Nigeria 
team has put significant effort into building the capacity of 
local NGOs and we are proud to have 10 Nigerian NGOs among 
our 40 prime partners.  We and our partners work in close 
collaboration with the GON to implement PEPFAR and on the 
upcoming submission of the country's Global Fund Round 8 
proposal. 
 
¶11. (U) Nigeria's large population and ethnic diversity have 
posed challenges to the PEPFAR program since the 
characteristics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic can vary 
substantially by region. In collaboration with the GON we 
have worked to define Nigeria's epidemic more clearly with 
research and surveillance activities, such as the 2007 
Integrated Bio-Behavior Surveillance Survey and the Antenatal 
Clinic Surveillance project, to better target our HIV 
programming.  Thus far, PEPFAR/Nigeria's reach has been 
limited and we recognize the need to leverage resources from 
the GON and other donors to achieve the GON's goal of 
universal access to prevention, care, and treatment services. 
 In 2009, we hope to receive approval from the Office of the 
Global AIDS Coordinator (OGAC) in the Department of State to 
begin dialogue with our GON counterparts concerning the 
development of a compact to facilitate the continued growth 
of joint programs through the commitment of GON funds. 
 
Other Foreign Assistance 
Priorities and Activities 
------------------------- 
¶12. (U) The U.S. foreign assistance program in Nigeria is 
crafted to meet the strategic goals of accountable 
governance, economic growth and prosperity, a healthy and 
well-educated population, and peace and security through best 
practices development programs that enhance the image of the 
United States.  To establish firmer foundations for 
democratic governance in Nigeria, the USG promotes 
partnerships between state and local governments and civil 
society to improve public expenditure management, public 
procurement, and service delivery at the local level; 
strengthen legislative institutions and build their capacity 
to combat corruption; support the Electoral Reform Committee 
to consult with Nigerian stakeholders and draft electoral 
reform legislation; and increase the capacity of civil 
society organizations and the media to press for targeted 
policy reforms, focusing on extractive industries and 
anti-corruption.  To grow the economy and build livelihoods, 
the USG program promotes Intellectual Property Rights and 
strengthens the international framework that supports trade 
and investment.  We expand the pool of credit and investment 
open to individuals and small enterprises; improve the policy 
environment for agriculture; increase market-driven 
agricultural productivity and rural incomes to reduce 
dependence on food imports; and support policy reforms to 
ensure that constraints affecting micro and small enterprise 
operations and competitiveness are eased. 
 
¶13. (U) Given the high child mortality rates, soaring 
population, and poor educational quality, assisting Nigeria 
to improve the lives of its people is central to the USG 
program.  Tuberculosis and malaria prevention and treatment, 
routine immunization against childhood illnesses, including 
polio, and increased access to maternal and newborn health 
interventions help reduce the annual burden of a million or 
more preventable young child deaths.  (Note: Nigeria is one 
of only four remaining countries with endemic polio, and this 
is of particular concern because Nigeria's rate of infection 
is growing, many transmissions are of the more virulent "type 
1" strain, and Nigeria is exporting cases to other African 
countries.  President Yar'Adua and many other political and 
traditional leaders are aware of the problems with polio 
 
ABUJA 00001227  005 OF 005 
 
 
eradication and are engaged on the issue.  In addition to our 
support for vaccination programs, the USG continues to engage 
the government and traditional leaders to encourage Nigeria's 
polio eradication efforts.  End note.)  USG programs expand 
access to quality voluntary family planning services to 
reduce population growth.  USG assistance improves the 
quality of basic education by training teachers, providing 
instructional materials, and engaging community institutions 
such as parent-teacher associations.  We also address poor 
enrollment and attendance rates for girls in Northern 
Nigeria, and support the integration of secular subjects into 
the curriculum of Qur'anic schools. 
 
¶14. (U) Nigeria plays a significant role in African regional 
affairs through its leadership in the African Union, ECOWAS, 
and other regional efforts.  USG investments in peace and 
security help Nigeria sustain oil production, conduct 
peacekeeping operations, and deal with potential and actual 
threats from terrorism, narcotics, and money laundering 
activities.  Conflict mitigation and reconciliation 
activities target vulnerable youth and provide for interfaith 
mediation, focusing on the volatile Northern and Niger Delta 
regions of the country. 
 
¶15. (U) Partnership and collaboration with the GON, the 
private sector, civil society, and the donor community is a 
cornerstone of the USG approach.  We will sign Memoranda of 
Understanding with reform-minded states and will focus 
development interventions primarily in those states, 
integrating our efforts and our strategic approach with those 
of the World Bank and the UK's Department for International 
Development.  Over the next five years, we expect to leverage 
both private sector resources and host country contributions 
to achieve our foreign assistance objectives in Nigeria. 
SANDERS