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RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #0398/01 1431449
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221449Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2334
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000398 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS: EU MEETS POLITICAL PRISONER'S DAUGHTER 
 
REF: VILNIUS 227 
 
Summary and Introduction 
------------------------ 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Charge hosted a meeting May 20 to introduce Olga Kozulina, 
daughter and lead representative of political prisoner Aleksandr 
Kozulin, to French Ambassador Mireille Musso -- currently 
representing the EU Presidency -- and recently-arrived European 
Commission Delegation Charge Jean-Eric Holzapfel.  Musso, who has 
been in Belarus since February 2007, had not previously met any 
member of the Kozulin family; Holtzapfel had previous contact in an 
earlier capacity.  Kozulina presented views of herself and her 
father on his possible release, the impact of sanctions, 
parliamentary elections later this year, European standards, and the 
role of Russia in Belarus.  End summary and introduction. 
 
Kozulin Hopes for Release 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Having recently spent three days visiting her father in 
jail May 3-6, Kozulina voiced her father's belief that only the 
combined efforts of the U.S. and EU could result in his release by 
the end of the year.  She noted that her family has received no 
hints from the GOB of any move to release her father since the offer 
for him to depart the country.  Kozulina told us that her father is 
optimistic that he will be released, but she is less so. 
 
Kozulina Requests Further EU Sanctions, Pressure 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In response to Musso's question of what further steps 
Kozulin would propose from the EU, Kozulina stated that the EU 
policy toward Belarus needs to be strengthened.  She said that while 
the twelve conditions put forth by the EU are helpful, if the GOB 
makes no progress on meeting these conditions, the EU should expand 
sanctions, asset freezes and/or its travel ban.  According to 
Kozulina, the mere threat of economic sanctions by the EU would 
"send Lukashenko into shock."  Kozulina expressed her father's firm 
belief that Lukashenko will response only to nonphysical force, 
rather than words; she said that "all the dialogue in the world 
[with Lukashenko] will lead to nothing." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) To Musso's objection that sanctions punish only the 
Belarusian people, Kozulina cited the recent freeing of five 
political prisoners as evidence that such steps by the USG have been 
effective, an argument Musso dismissed rather abruptly.  Musso 
further rejected Kozulina's call for EU economic sanctions out of 
hand, and expressed her view that the EU would consider increasing 
pressure on the regime only in the event that the parliamentary 
elections -- scheduled for September -- are mishandled. 
 
Upcoming Parliamentary Elections 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Kozulina detailed her intention to run in the September 
2008 parliamentary elections on the 110-candidate list of the United 
Democratic Forces (UDF), as a member of her father's Belarusian 
Social Democratic Party-Gramada (BSDP-G).  Expressing doubt that she 
would be permitted by the GOB to register her candidacy or that the 
elections would yield any opposition representation in parliament, 
Kozulina emphasized that her principal desire is to spread 
information to the public about human rights violations and 
political prisoners in Belarus through informational materials and 
an active door-to-door campaign.  When pressed by Musso for details, 
Kozulina described the procedures required for a candidate to 
register and expressed her doubt that even the radio and television 
time required by law to be allotted each candidate will be permitted 
by the GOB. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Musso and Holtzapfel agreed with Kozulina that close 
monitoring the candidates' registration process and progress of free 
and fair electoral campaigning is critical.  Musso suggested that 
reference to any violations of Belarusian laws governing the 
campaign process will be the firmest ground to stand on in joint 
criticisms.  Musso asked to be informed about the political process 
in the run-up to upcoming parliamentary elections and expressed her 
readiness to levy criticisms if and when violations are observed. 
Charge underlined our intention to cooperate with the EU, OSCE and 
Belarusian Helsinki Committee in election monitoring and 
information-sharing over the coming months. 
 
Kozulin's Vision of Role of EU, Russia 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) If elected to the Presidency in 2011, in addition to 
Kozulin's stated agenda to improve the human rights situation and 
expand a full range of freedoms for the Belarusian people, Kozulina 
described her father's intention to undertake a series of economic 
reforms aimed at transformation into a market-based economy.  In 
addition, Kozulina expressed his plan to carry Belarus towards 
 
VILNIUS 00000398  002 OF 002 
 
 
European standards of democracy. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) While a Kozulin administration would remain friendly with 
Russia, particularly cooperating in areas of transit and loans, 
Kozulina stated that a union between Belarus and Russia would no 
longer be possible.  While agreeing with Musso that a balance 
between Russia and the EU will be difficult to achieve, Kozulina 
believes the main focus of economic and political ties to be with 
the EU rather than Russia.  Kozulina stated that Russia is neither a 
model on human rights issues nor economic relationships; Europe is 
the best example for both.  Kozulina debunked their perception that 
her father has close ties with Russia and described her many 
unsuccessful attempts to meet with Putin or a representative of the 
Russian Embassy in Minsk during more than two and one-half years of 
her father's imprisonment (reftel).  Musso and Holzapfel were 
surprised that the GOR did not once express their concern about 
Kozulin to his family or send condolences upon his wife's recent 
death. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Kozulina expressed her appreciation to us for arranging 
this opportunity to meet with EU representatives and again 
highlighted the importance of the EU's support in securing her 
father's release and improved human rights in Belarus.  Charge 
underlined the Embassy's anticipation of further dialogue between 
Kozulina and EU representatives, with or without U.S. participation. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Post initiated this first meeting between Kozulina and 
representatives of the primary EU offices in Minsk.  We hope that 
there are further meetings.  While agreeing to disagree on the 
utility of economic sanctions and observing a somewhat challenging 
attitude of Musso towards Kozulina, it is sends an important message 
to both the regime and the opposition that the EU -- if a bit 
combatively -- has at last engaged with a key opposition figure. 
 
Moore 
Cloud