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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBW RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #0373/01 1371624
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161624Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2308
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0226
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 000373 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK BI-WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - May 16, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Belarusian Helsinki Committee Elects New Chairman (para. 2) 
- Opposition Youth Banned From Traveling Abroad (para. 3) 
- Outlawed Small Business Association Registered in Ukraine (para. 
4) 
- Prosecutor Questions Belsat Coordinator (para. 5) 
- Opposition Leader Jailed and Youth Briefly Detained (para. 6) 
- Opposition Activist Fined (para. 7) 
- Civil Society Activists Banned To Mark Disappearance Anniversary 
(para. 8) 
- Dissident Author Jailed (para. 9) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Belarus Continues Selective Privatization (para. 10) 
- Belarus Reports 10.4 Percent GDP Growth In Jan-April (para. 11) 
- Belarus Faces Inflation Rate Hike (para. 12) 
- Customs Agency to Force Individuals out of "Shuttle" Business 
(para. 13) 
 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
- Belarus' Commodity Trade Deficit Down in Jan-March (para. 14) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 15) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Belarusian Helsinki Committee Elects New Chairman 
 
Thirty-six regional and Minsk city members of the Belarusian 
Helsinki Committee (BHC) elected Oleg Gulak as Chairman at its 
annual convention May 11.  Gulak committed to making no "drastic 
changes" in the BHC's activities and said that monitoring the 
September 2008 parliamentary elections is at top of the committee's 
agenda.  He noted that the organization would continue to focus on 
human rights monitoring as well as analytical and educational work 
and training. 
 
¶3.  Opposition Youth Banned From Traveling Abroad 
 
Opposition youth and European Humanities University freshman Oleg 
Grubich was banned from leaving Belarus May 10.  Border guards 
removed the activist from a Vilnius-bound train on the grounds that 
Grubich allegedly dodged the military draft.  The activist expressed 
concern that BKGB harassment could hinder his study and research. 
In a separate incident, border guards briefly detained Malady Front 
(MF) leader Artur Finkevich upon his arrival from Vilnius May 14, 
informing him that he had been banned from traveling abroad. 
Finkevich linked the ban with BKGB attempts to hinder international 
MF activities and cooperation with foreign groups. 
 
¶4.  Outlawed Small Business Association Registered in Ukraine 
 
Leader of the Belarusian Small Business Association For Free 
Development of Entrepreneurship, Victor Gorbachyov, announced on May 
7 that the NGO obtained registration in Ukraine.  Gorbachyov stated 
that it was "a shame" the NGO had to seek registration abroad and 
that the GOB was reluctant "to establish contacts with dissident 
entrepreneurs in Belarus."  He also noted the importance of 
expanding ties with Ukrainian small business groups and furthering 
economic reforms in Belarus. 
 
¶5.  Prosecutor Questions Belsat Coordinator 
 
On May 13, the Minsk city prosecutor's office questioned Eduard 
Melnikov, a Belarusian Association of Journalists board member and 
Polish-based Belsat TV channel coordinator.  The prosecutor 
interrogated Melnikov about his work for Belsat and his possible 
connection to a group of cartoonists charged with slandering 
Lukashenka in 2005, which Melnikov denied.  Melnikov linked his 
questioning to a BKGB search of his apartment on March 27. 
 
¶6.  Opposition Leader Jailed and Youth Briefly Detained 
 
A Minsk district court sentenced European coalition leader Nikolay 
Statkevich to 10 days in jail over participation in a May Day rally 
 
VILNIUS 00000373  002 OF 003 
 
 
on May 1.  On the same day, the police also briefly detained more 
than 20 youth opposition activists.  While they were released 
without charge after two hours, prominent MF leaders Zmitser 
Dashkevich, Artur Finkevich, Yevgeniy Afnagel, Zmitser Fedoruk, and 
Pavel Yukhnevich were charged with participation in an unsanctioned 
demonstration and will stand trial upon receipt of a summons. 
Fedaruk asserted they will likely go to trial shortly before another 
protest to prevent their participation. 
 
¶7.  Opposition Activist Fined 
 
On May 14, a Vitebsk district court fined local opposition activist 
Sergey Kovalenko 1,050,000 rubles (USD 490) for carrying a 
white-red-white flag in downtown Vitebsk on April 26.  Kovalenko was 
charged with violating street demonstration regulations.  Kovalenko 
was detained on April 26 at the Chernobyl march and held for two 
days; his trial was delayed until May 14 in order to accommodate his 
request for a Belarusian-Russian interpreter to be present at the 
hearing. 
 
¶8.  Activists Prohibited from Marking Disappearance Anniversary 
 
Minsk city authorities banned a commemorative event planned for May 
7 in downtown Minsk to mark the 9th anniversary of the disappearance 
of former Interior Minister and opposition leader Yuri Zakharenko. 
Brest city authorities refused permission for a similar rally, 
saying that the central street intended for the demonstration was 
closed for repairs.  Civil society activists in both Minsk and Brest 
appealed the refusals unsuccessfully. 
 
¶9.  Dissident Author Jailed 
 
On May 15, a district court in Stariye Dorogi sentenced freelance 
journalist, publisher, and writer Viktor Hoursik to 15 days in jail. 
 The administrative charges against Hoursik stemmed from his 
participation on April 19 in a commemorative ceremony unveiling a 
cross in honor of local residents massacred by pro-Soviet partisans 
in 1943.  Hoursik also wrote a book describing the tragedy.  The 
local authorities removed the cross from the site on April 23. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶10.  Belarus Continues Selective Privatization 
 
An unnamed official from the Belarus State Property Committee told 
Prime-Tass news service on May 2 that the GOB plans to sell state 
shares of 74 joint-stock companies and privatize eight state-owned 
businesses in 2008.  The plan is consistent with the GOB's selective 
approach to privatization, which Lukashenko highlighted in his 
interview with Reuters on May 12.  Moreover, he issued a decree on 
April 14 that allows gradual removal of all limitations on ownership 
of shares by 2011, except for one hundred "strategically important" 
joint-stock companies, primarily in petrochemical and food 
industries, which will remain majority-owned by the GOB. 
 
¶11.  Belarus Reports 10.4 Percent GDP Growth 
 
According to a report by the Statistics Ministry, as of May 1, the 
country's GDP grew by 10.4 percent in 2008.  Belarus ranked second 
among the seven countries of the 12-member CIS that posted their 
first-quarter GDP data.  Belarus' 10.4 percent GDP growth was 
surpassed only by Azerbaijan.  Belarus led the CIS in industrial 
growth -- 13.6 percent -- and ranked second in growth of retail 
trade -- 20.8 percent.  Ukraine topped the race with 26.7 percent. 
 
¶12.  Belarus Faces Rising Inflation 
 
The Statistics Ministry announced on May 12 that the country's 
inflation as of May 1, 2008 was 5.3 percent, as compared with 2.8 
percent during the same period in 2007.  According to official data, 
which is generally believed to be distorted, between January and 
April food prices increased by 5.1 percent, consumer goods 2.1 
percent, and consumer services 10 percent.   In Minsk, prices jumped 
18.2, 6.3, and 14.8 percent respectively. 
 
¶13.  Customs Agency Forces Individuals Out Of "Shuttle" Business 
 
Sergey Borisyuk, the Deputy Chairman of the State Customs Committee, 
said in a news conference on May 13 that beginning on May 15, 
customs officers will monitor the frequency of foreign travel and 
the number of goods brought by individuals into Belarus.  Current 
regulations permit each individual entering Belarus to import 
tax-free up to 5 kilos of food products and either 35 kilos or 1,000 
euros worth of consumer goods at a time.  Many Belarusians residing 
in border areas have built successful businesses by shuttling 
competitively-priced consumer products into the Belarusian market. 
New regulations will restrict such actions by frequent travelers and 
 
VILNIUS 00000373  003 OF 003 
 
 
could render such businesses unprofitable.  Nevertheless, 
implementation of the new regulations will remain at the discretion 
of customs officers. 
 
------------------- 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
¶14.  Belarus' Commodity Trade Deficit Down in Jan-March 
 
According to the Statistics Ministry report issued May 12, the 
country's deficit in commodity trade between January and March 2008 
reached USD 750.1 million, as compared with USD 856.1 million in the 
first quarter of 2007.  The country's year-to-date exports rose 69 
percent to USD 8.02 billion and imports grew by 56.5 percent to USD 
8.77 billion.  Belarus' first quarter trade deficit with CIS 
countries was USD 2.7 billion, versus USD 1.2 billion in the same 
period of 2007.  The biggest deficit of USD 3.14 billion was in 
trade with Russia, and the largest surplus of USD 308.2 million was 
in trade with Ukraine.  The country's trade with non-CIS countries 
in the first quarter registered a surplus of USD 1.94 billion. 
 
---------------------- 
¶15.  Quote of the Week 
---------------------- 
 
Aleksandr Lukashenko to Reuters, speaking about running in 2011 
presidential elections: 
 
"If the situation in the country and in my life remains as is, I, of 
course, will be running for another term...As long as I am a healthy 
person, the people [of Belarus] do not criticize me that much, and 
the West has begun to understand [me].  It is possible [I will be 
running].  Hope for the worst." 
 
Moore 
Cloud