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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 001321 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/14/08 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura: Japan is considering plan for 
prime minister to attend World Food Summit (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(2) Battle between Fukuda, Ozawa in Diet to continue into fall 
(Asahi) 
 
(3) Rocky path lies ahead of prime minister (Nikkei) 
 
(4) Bill amending Road Construction Revenues Special Exemption Law 
adopted in second vote: DPJ lacks strategy in pursuing government, 
ruling camp (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(5) Kasumigaseki confidential: Senior Foreign Ministry officials 
visit U.S. in succession (Bungei Shunju) 
 
(6) Poll on Constitution (Asahi) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura: Japan is considering plan for 
prime minister to attend World Food Summit 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN ONLINE NEWS (Full) 
May 14, 2008, 12:13 
 
Kyodo 
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura revealed at a news 
conference this morning that the government was considering a plan 
for Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda to attend the United Nations Food 
and Agricultural Organization's (FAO) World Food Summit in Rome 
slated for June 3-5. 
 
Machimura emphasized: "Given that Japan is the host nation of the 
upcoming Group of Eight (G-8) Hokkaido Toyako Summit, it will be 
very significant for the prime minister to attend the World Food 
Summit. If it were realized, the prime minister would be able to 
meet with leaders of the G-8 ahead of the G-8 summit." 
 
UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has asked leaders of all UN member 
states to attend the World Food Summit. French President Sarkozy and 
some other leaders have indicated their plans to take part in the 
food summit. 
 
(2) Battle between Fukuda, Ozawa in Diet to continue into fall 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
May 14, 2008 
 
Despite declining public support for the cabinet of Prime Minister 
Fukuda, there are no moves in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to 
"dump Fukuda". The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which has 
control in the House of Councillors, also remains unable to force 
the government to dissolve the House of Representatives. The battle 
between Prime Minister Fukuda and DPJ President Ozawa will be 
carried over to the extraordinary Diet session in the fall. 
 
Fukuda dependent on plan to shift highway tax revenues to general 
budget 
 
 
TOKYO 00001321  002 OF 009 
 
 
On the night of April 27, when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
candidate was defeated in the by-election in Yamaguchi 2nd District 
for a Lower House seat, Prime Minister Fukuda said: "I will neither 
call a general election nor step down." This remark came when former 
Prime Minister Mori and former Upper House Chairman Mikio Aoki 
visited the Prime Minister's Official Residence. Hearing the prime 
minister's remark, many LDP members felt a sense of relief. 
 
A senior faction member who supported Fukuda in the party 
presidential election last fall explained why there are no moves 
afoot to "dump Fukuda" in the party despite declining public support 
for his cabinet: "Not dissolving the Lower House is the best way to 
shore up the prime minister's political base." 
 
The LDP wants to avoid an early dissolution of the Lower House 
because: (1) it will not be able to fight evenly with the DPJ in a 
general election, with low public support ratings for the cabinet; 
and (2) it does not want to lose its two-thirds majority in the 
Lower House. The term of office of the incumbent Lower House members 
expires in the fall of next year. Keeping in mind the timeframe, the 
LDP is apparently aiming to prolong the life of the current 
administration and carry out a cabinet reshuffle when it runs out of 
steam before facing a general election. 
 
Former Prime Minister Koizumi said to Diet Affairs Committee 
Chairman Tadamori Oshima and others when they dined together on the 
night of May 12: "The government should not dissolve the Lower House 
this year. It might be O.K. to do that after the G-8 Summit next 
year." 
 
Fukuda has reiterated: "We are too busy to dissolve the Lower House 
before the Lake Toya Summit in July." After the Summit, though, he 
will lose his good excuse. He thus has proposed a plan to 
incorporate highway-related tax revenues into the general budget 
starting next fiscal year. 
 
If the prime minister's approach is undermined, it will end up just 
benefiting the DPJ. Given this, even the road-policy clique in the 
Diet finds it difficult to take action to "dump Fukuda." Meanwhile, 
if the LDP puts up the banner of reform, the party will not be 
pressed by the DPJ to dissolve the Lower House. In the LDP, there is 
the calculation that it will be possible that the administration 
will maintain its slender existence while dodging attacks from the 
road-policy clique and the DPJ until a bill to shift the tax 
revenues into the general budget is drafted at the end of the year. 
 
In May and June, reports of recommendations will be produced by 
experts' conferences under the sponsorship of the prime minister on 
creating a consumer agency, global warming countermeasures, reform 
of the social insurance system, and the like. Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Machimura said: "Prime Minister Fukuda's policy identity 
will be demonstrated." If public support rises, the government would 
be able to regain the political initiative. In such a case, the 
government would be able to shake up the DPJ by taking up such 
issues as raising the consumption tax rate in the run-up to the DPJ 
presidential race in September. 
 
For Fukuda, who has sealed off the possibility of using the right to 
dissolve the Lower House, shuffling the cabinet is one of a few 
cards left for him. In the meeting with Mori and Aoki, Fukuda 
discussed the best timeframe for shuffling the cabinet, focusing on 
sometime between the July Summit and September. By reshuffling the 
 
TOKYO 00001321  003 OF 009 
 
 
cabinet, the prime minister wants to make a fresh start, but he must 
avoid a decline in his political strength as a result of a scandal 
involving a new cabinet minister or dissatisfaction at a new lineup. 
The prime minister intends to carefully find the best timing for a 
cabinet shuffle. 
 
Ozawa confident in long-term strategy 
 
DPJ President Ozawa emphasized in a press conference yesterday: "Our 
party will be able to win a victory in at least more than 150 
(electoral districts). We would like to start full-scale 
preparations for the election while carefully selecting 
candidates." 
 
In mid-April, Ozawa visited five prefectures in one week. A close 
aide said, "The first round of preparations for the election has now 
ended." In late May, Ozawa is scheduled to go on a tour of electoral 
districts to which he gives priority, such as Kyushu and Okinawa. 
 
To maintain his grip on the party until the September presidential 
race, Ozawa will try to keep a tense atmosphere in the party with a 
continuous call for a general election. His basic stance remains 
unchanged, but the victory in the Yamaguchi by-election has made 
Ozawa more confident in managing the party and in being reelected 
party president. As a result, Ozawa has begun to take a long-term 
strategy to continue to attack the Fukuda administration in the Diet 
until the LDP self-destructs, instead of resorting to a censure 
motion against Fukuda, since he is unlikely to dissolve the Lower 
House at an early date. 
 
Ozawa left for South Korea on the day after the government took an 
override vote on a bill to revive the provisional gasoline tax rate 
on April 30. After returning home, he enjoyed some ocean fishing. He 
expressed this view in a study meeting of local assembly members on 
May 12: "They will not dissolve the Lower House when its 
inconvenient for them." 
 
Behind his confidence is not only the victory in the Yamaguchi 
by-election. In opinion surveys by news companies, DPJ support 
ratings have outpaced LDP's. This is also a favorable factor for 
Ozawa to be reelected in the DPJ presidential election. Vice 
President Seiji Maehara has asserted that a rival candidate against 
Ozawa should be fielded. Former Policy Research Council Chairman 
Yukio Edano also said in a TV program: "We will take a vote and show 
it to you." But many DPJ members take the view that Mr. Ozawa will 
surely be reelected. 
 
Although the ruling coalition tried to lead the Upper House DPJ to 
an intraparty split over the highway construction-related policy, 
such never took place. This is also behind the party's confidence. 
Even if dissolving the Lower House is delayed to early next year as 
a result of the long-term battle between Fukuda and Ozawa, there are 
many materials for the main opposition party to attack the ruling 
camp, such as the expiration of the Special Law on Maritime 
Self-Defense Force's Refueling and the new system that charges the 
elderly for medical care. 
 
One of the leadership gives this explanation about the change in 
Ozawa's mental attitude: "There will be one more year if he is 
reelected in the presidential election. He will be in the position 
of driving the other side into a corner. There is no need for him to 
act hastily. 
 
TOKYO 00001321  004 OF 009 
 
 
 
(3) Rocky path lies ahead of prime minister 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Excerpts) 
May 14, 2008 
 
The Diet yesterday readopted a bill designed to keep road-related 
tax revenues earmarked for building highways. This has put an end, 
at least for the time being, to the fierce battle between the ruling 
and opposition camps over a series of contentious issues, including 
the selection of the new Bank of Japan governor and deputy governors 
and the question of road-related revenues. With the term of the 
incumbent Lower House members scheduled to expire in 16 months, the 
political situation is likely to revolve around the possible timing 
for Lower House dissolution for a snap general election. No matter 
how matters turn out, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is certain to 
continue walking a rough and thorny path. 
 
Prime minister could shuffle his cabinet this summer 
 
Kenji Hirata, secretary general of the Upper House Democratic Party 
of Japan, was asked in a press conference yesterday whether or not 
his party would submit a censure motion against the prime minister. 
In response, Hirata simply said: "We will make a decision at a 
certain time. We have yet to discuss the matter in concrete terms." 
 
A censure motion is not binding. The DPJ is keeping a possible 
motion in reserve, thinking that even if one was adopted by the 
Upper House, the prime minister might ignore it. The DPJ also thinks 
it would be better to expose the Fukuda cabinet's blunders through 
Diet debates. The major opposition party also regards an extremely 
unpopular Prime Minister Fukuda as an easy target. 
 
If the current Diet session ends without the submission of a censure 
motion, the next political climax is likely to come in the fall. The 
prime minister has cut off his retreat, vowing to use road-related 
tax revenue for general purposes starting in fiscal 2009. His 
failure to deliver on his promise would let down the general public 
and young lawmakers. 
 
The DPJ then would submit a censure motion against the prime 
minister, labeling him as reluctant to implement reform. The DPJ 
also anticipates that the adoption of the motion by the Upper House 
would drive the prime minister to bay, making it extremely difficult 
for him to run his administration while under pressure from the 
public and the ruling parties. 
 
Whether or not the prime minister can actually transfer road 
revenues into the general account could determine his fate. 
 
The prime minister might shuttle his cabinet shortly after the July 
G-8 Lake Toya Summit to show his own political identity. The prime 
minister could also decide to dissolve the Lower House sometime 
between the fall and next spring once a basic plan to reform the tax 
system, including road-related revenues, is put together. 
 
Fukuda may resign as prime minister after the Summit 
 
Even if the prime minister can display strong leadership in freeing 
up road revenues, there is no doubt that plummeting approval ratings 
for the Fukuda cabinet will work like a series of body blows. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001321  005 OF 009 
 
 
In recent opinion polls, cabinet approval rates fell to about 20 
PERCENT . The ruling bloc was shocked more by the fact that the DPJ 
has overtaken the LDP in popularity. There is a "rule" in the LDP 
that the administration collapses when the support rates for the 
cabinet and party totaled together fall below 50 PERCENT  in total. 
In a recent Nikkei poll, the combined figure was 54 PERCENT , close 
to the danger zone. 
 
According to this rule, a big event could occur around the G-8 
Summit in July. Such members as Taro Aso and Kaoru Yosano, who are 
regarded as possible successors to Fukuda, have enhanced their 
presence, releasing proposals or books. The LDP might begin paving 
the way for the next prime ministerial race following Fukuda's 
resignation after the G-8 Summit. 
 
LDP wants to avoid an election 
 
The LDP is visibly reluctant to face an election anytime soon. Faced 
with declining popularity and the mounting headwind resulting from 
the controversial medical system for the elderly and other matters, 
the LDP thinks it is difficult to retain its current strength 
allowing it to readopt bills in the Lower House. 
 
Former LDP Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa, delivering a speech 
at a political fund raising party jointly held yesterday by the Koga 
and Tanigaki factions, expressed a negative view about early Lower 
House dissolution for a general election. 
 
Rising prices and the deteriorating economic climate resulting from 
soaring oil prices also deserve attention. Given ballooning social 
security expenses, discussing fundamental tax reform without tax 
hikes is inconceivable. It is unknown if the ruling parties are 
really willing to discuss tax increases -- a topic unsuitable for an 
election -- when the economy is slowing down. 
 
Finding subjects appealing to the general public is not easy. A dump 
Fukuda move is not gaining momentum in the LDP, either. 
 
The opposition parties are also devoid of a silver bullet that can 
put an end to the Fukuda administration. As such, the Fukuda 
administration might continue "flying low" until next year. 
Lawmakers are also likely to continue making moves with a view to 
political realignment after the next Lower House election. 
 
(4) Bill amending Road Construction Revenues Special Exemption Law 
adopted in second vote: DPJ lacks strategy in pursuing government, 
ruling camp 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
May 14, 2008 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) yesterday strongly 
objected to the enactment of the bill amending the Road Construction 
Revenues Special Exemption Law by an override vote in the Lower 
House. It has also clarified its determination to continue the 
pursuit of the special-purpose road construction revenues issue 
through Diet debate.  However, the truth is that the battle over 
road funds, the biggest point at issue in the current Diet session, 
has passed a crucial stage. The DPJ will find it difficult to come 
up with new issues to confront the LDP before the end of the Diet 
session, only a month away. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001321  006 OF 009 
 
 
DPJ President Ozawa at a press conference lashed out at the Fukuda 
administration for adopting the bill by taking another vote: 
"Adopting a bill that was once rejected is an act of disloyalty to 
the people. The ruling parties have left a stain in the annals of 
the constitutional government." Deputy President Kan, showing his 
resolve to do battle, said, "We don't consider the matter settled 
for the time being." 
 
He then added, "We want to propose in the form of a bill our concept 
for reallocating road funds as general expenditures, depending on 
the situation." He noted that the DPJ bill would include drastic 
reforms, such as transferring the authority to construct roads, 
excluding highways, to local governments and abolishing the Regional 
Development Bureau, which the DPJ views as the "hotbed for wasting 
tax money." The aim is to pursue the government and the ruling 
parties, using this bill as a driving force. 
 
However, for some in the DPJ, the current Diet session is 
practically over, as one junior lawmaker noted. That is because 
since there are no strategic opportunities left, such as the recent 
lowering of gasoline prices, so it will be difficult to hold public 
interest, as one DPJ-connected source explained. 
 
The DPJ pins high hopes on making an issue of the new medical 
service system for elderly people (over 75). Four opposition parties 
plan to jointly present a bill possibly later in the month aimed at 
abolishing the system. If the ruling parties vote it down or take no 
action in the Lower House, then the opposition camp might consider 
resorting to playing their reserved card of submitting a censure 
motion against Prime Minister Fukuda. 
 
However, the government and the ruling parties are also looking into 
relief measures, including additional measures to reduce burdens of 
low-income earners. The public tends to pay attention to measures 
proposed by the government and the ruling parties, instead of the 
opposition camp's proposal for scrapping the system, which has only 
a slim possibility of being acted on. 
 
Ozawa during his press conference categorically said, "The DPJ wants 
to increase its readiness for an election either in July or in 
August, but it could even be in June." Ozawa's interest again 
appears to have shifted to preparations for the next Lower House 
election. 
 
(5) Kasumigaseki confidential: Senior Foreign Ministry officials 
visit U.S. in succession 
 
BUNGEI SHUNJU (Page 235 & 236) 
June 2008 
 
Senor Foreign Ministry officials have been put to a test over 
Japan-U.S. cooperation on the North Korea issue. 
 
The purpose of visits to Washington by three senior officials, 
including Administrative Vice Minister Mitoji Yabunaka, who joined 
the ministry in 1969, was to find out the Bush administration's real 
intention on the issue of delisting North Korea as a state sponsor 
of terrorism. Yabunaka entered ministry in 1969 (MOFA class of 
1969). Despite their efforts, channels of communication between 
Tokyo and Washington have not worked well. So, the Japanese side is 
concerned about such a situation. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001321  007 OF 009 
 
 
In March, Yabunaka sent Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Director 
General Akitaka Saiki (MOFA class of 1976) to Washington to have him 
ask Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill the result of his 
talks with North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan in 
Geneva. Deputy Foreign Minister Kenichiro Sasae (MOFA class of 
1974), Saeki's predecessor, also visited Washington, following 
Saiki. 
 
In April, Saiki flew to Beijing to get briefed on the result of 
U.S.-North Korea talks from Hill. Immediately after that, Yabunaka 
made a trip to Washington. After visiting the White House, the vice 
presidential office, the State Department and the Defense 
Department, Yabunaka met with Deputy Secretary of State Richard 
Armitage, a brain-trust policy advisor to Sen. John McCain, a 
Republican presidential candidate, former Assistant Secretary of 
State Susan Rice, a brain-trust advisor to Sen. Barack Obama, a 
Democratic presidential candidate, and former Deputy Assistant 
Secretary of Defense Curt Campbell, a brain-trust policy advisor to 
Hilary Clinton, a Democratic presidential candidate. The visits to 
the U.S. by Yabunaka, Sasae, and Saiki -- Japan's successive chief 
delegates to the six-party talks -- symbolize the present situation 
that the North Korea issue has become the only issue that would sway 
the Japan-U.S. alliance. For Japan, which has to resolve the 
abduction issue, removal of North Korea from the U.S. list of state 
sponsors of terrorism is a matter of vital importance. 
 
Kimihiro Ishigane (MOFA class of 1981), secretary to then Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, serves now as secretary to Prime 
Minister Fukuda. Jun Niimi (MOFA class of 1983), former secretary to 
a chief cabinet secretary, is now minister at the embassy in 
Washington. Niimi is in charge of dealing with the U.S. Congress. 
However, Japanese government officials are unable to analyze the 
U.S. side's responses. The Fukuda government appears to have formed 
a "North Korea shift." Foreign Ministry officials have mounting 
frustrations. 
 
(6) Poll on Constitution 
 
ASAHI (Page 14) (Full) 
May 3, 2008 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. Bracketed figures denote 
proportions to all respondents.) 
 
Q: Do you think it's now realistic to revise the Constitution, or do 
you otherwise think it's still up ahead to do so? 
 
Realistic 52 
Still up ahead 35 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "it's realistic") Why? (One choice 
only) 
 
Because the nation is now institutionally ready with a national 
referendum law in place 20(11) 
Because there are now specific plans, such as the Liberal Democratic 
Party's draft of a new constitution 15(8) 
Because there is now a better understanding in the nation 57(30) 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "it's still up ahead") Why? (One 
choice only) 
 
TOKYO 00001321  008 OF 009 
 
 
 
Because the ruling and opposition parties are squaring off in the 
Diet 19(7) 
Because Prime Minister Abe, who was positive about revising the 
Constitution, has stepped down 5(2) 
Because there's still no momentum in the nation 71(24) 
 
Q: When you look at the Constitution as a whole, do you think it 
needs to be revised? 
 
Yes 56 
No 31 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes") Why? (One choice only) 
 
Because we want to create a new constitution with our own hands 
9(5) 
Because there is something wrong with Article 9 13(7) 
Because new rights and systems should be incorporated 74(42) 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no") Why? (One choice only) 
 
Because the Constitution has taken root in the nation and there's 
nothing wrong to revise it 29(9) 
Because Article 9 could be changed 51(16) 
Because it helps guarantee freedom and rights 17(5) 
 
Q: Constitution Article 9 stipulates that Japan renounces war and 
maintains no war potential. Do you think it would be better to 
change this provision? 
 
Yes 23 
No 66 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes") How would you like 
Constitution Article 9 to be changed? 
 
Only describe the existence of the Self-Defense Forces 56(13) 
Define the SDF as a military entity as in other countries 38(9) 
 
Q: What do you think about SDF activities overseas from now on? How 
far do you think the SDF should be allowed to act overseas? Pick 
only one that is closest to your opinion. 
 
The SDF should not be allowed at all to act overseas 15 
The SDF should be allowed to act overseas with no use of force 64 
The SDF should be allowed to use force if necessary 17 
 
Q: In the Diet, the ruling parties currently dominate the House of 
Representatives, with the opposition parties controlling the House 
of Councillors. As it stands, legislative measures and government 
appointments can hardly get through the Diet. However, opposition 
standpoints can be easily reflected. Do you think the present Diet 
situation is favorable? 
 
Yes 26 
No 62 
 
Q: When it comes to budget plans and laws for Diet approval, the 
Constitution currently empowers the House of Representatives over 
the House of Councillors. Concerning this, there is an opinion 
saying the Constitution should be revised to give more authority to 
 
TOKYO 00001321  009 OF 009 
 
 
the House of Representatives. Do you agree to this opinion? 
 
Yes 23 
No 58 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Apr. 19-20 over the 
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. 
Respondents were chosen from among the nation's voting population on 
a three-stage random-sampling basis. Among randomly generated 
telephone numbers, those actually for household use with one or more 
eligible voters totaled 3,600. Valid answers were obtained from 
2,084 persons (58 PERCENT ). 
 
DONOVAN