VZCZCXRO7062
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0356/01 1511215
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301215Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7390
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0324
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2285
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000356 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ENDS ON A LOW NOTE 
 
REF: SKOPJE 346 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (SBU) The final week before the June 1 parliamentary 
elections has been marked by continued tensions between 
ethnic Albanian parties DUI and DPA.  Although DUI property 
sustained most of the damage, there also were reports of DUI 
activist violence against an ethnic Macedonian spectator at a 
May 29 rally.  Consistent USG appeals to the government (GOM) 
to take action to prevent election violence resulted in a 
more detailed and comprehensive Election Day security plan. 
Effective implementation of the plan would improve the 
chances of successful elections and could help ameliorate 
some of the harm Macedonia has sustained as a result of 
campaign violence and intimidation.  Political parties of all 
stripes have understood the high stakes in these elections, 
but blame their rivals for damaging the country's NATO and EU 
prospects by engaging in intimidation and other unfair 
tactics.  With the campaign period over at midnight tonight 
and the elections just a day away, the media are encouraging 
Macedonia's citizens and politicians to participate in "clean 
and European elections."  End summary. 
 
DUI/DPA INCIDENTS CONTINUE 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In the last week before the June 1 elections, the 
forceful International Community (IC) message against 
election-related violence did not succeed in diminishing the 
number of violent incidents, especially in the eAlbanian 
parts of the country.  On May 28, a DUI election office in a 
Gostivar neighborhood was stoned for the second time, and on 
May 29 a DUI office in Gostivar was destroyed, allegedly by 
DPA supporters.  On May 29, the two eAlbanian parties held 
their final pre-election rallies --DUI's in Tetovo and DPA's 
in Gostivar-- which resulted in a number of alleged DUI/DPA 
incidents. 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to the Ministry of Interior (MOI), the 
first incident occurred on the road between Gostivar and 
Tetovo where DUI activists were reportedly assaulted by DPA 
activists.  After the altercation, the DUI supporters 
continued to their rally, while MOI investigators opened an 
investigation into the case.  A second incident happened 
when, during their rally, DUI activists observed an 
eMacedonian in the crowd and physically assaulted him.  The 
eMacedonian was later taken to the hospital and provided a 
statement to the police, who immediately arrested one of the 
suspects in the assault.  Shortly after the DUI rally, a 
group of DUI supporters intercepted the eAlbanian deputy 
commander of the Grupcin police station and 3 or 4 of his 
officers.  The supporters surrounded the policemen and did 
not release them until the DUI suspect arrested in the 
earlier assault on the eMacedonian victim was released from 
police custody, which occurred shortly thereafter. 
 
U.S. ANTI-VIOLENCE MESSAGE GETTING THROUGH?.. 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Throughout the pre-election period, the Mission at 
all levels has conveyed a strong unified message in support 
of free and non-violent elections.  On May 26, the Ambassador 
met with the Prime Minister to deliver that message; the DCM, 
jointly with EUSR Ambassador Fouere and ODIHR Ambassador 
Barry, met with the Minister of Interior to urge the 
government once again to take decisive action against 
election-related violence (reftels).  On May 27, the DCM met 
also with the Chief of Counterintelligence and delivered an 
equally forceful message against election violence and an 
appeal to the MOI to do everything in its power to prevent 
incidents.  The Ambassador will participate in a May 31 joint 
press event with EUSR Fouere and the election monitoring NGO 
MOST and make a final appeal to the citizens of Macedonia to 
exercise their right to vote in a civilized and calm manner. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On May 29, Director of Police Todorovski briefed 
Post's police advisor on the MOI election security plan. 
Presenting a slightly improved version of the 2006 
parliamentary elections plan, the MOI's leadership took into 
consideration IC comments, especially regarding the 
deployment of the special police forces, the "Alphas." 
 
SKOPJE 00000356  002 OF 003 
 
 
Todorovski said that all Alphas will be clearly identifiable 
as police officers and that 15 politically active Alpha 
officers had already been re-assigned from the 
Tetovo/Gostivar region.  On Election Day, all non-uniformed 
police officers in the vicinity of polling stations will be 
clearly identifiable as police officers, with Rapid 
Deployment Unit (RDU) officers waiting in reserve near 
potential "hot spots."  Todorovski added that non-police 
persons found to be in possession of weapons would be 
arrested immediately. 
 
ELECTION DAY CONCERNS 
--------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Senior party officials across the political spectrum 
told us this week they fully support peaceful and 
"uneventful" elections on June 1.  The PM's Chief of Staff 
and VMRO election campaign chief Protoger said PM Gruevski 
was planning to issue a statement May 30 calling on all 
eligible voters to vote in a free and peaceful process on 
Sunday.  SDSM VP Ivanovski and DUI VP Arifi shared concerns 
about special Alpha police harassment in Tetovo and Gostivar, 
and alleged that DPA and VMRO teams were planning to 
cooperate in "stuffing ballots early in the morning, just 
after polls open on June 1."  DPA VP Dogani and VMRO's 
Veljanovski dismissed such accusations, but confirmed that 
VMRO and DPA teams would monitor all polling stations "to 
protect the votes."  DUI's Arifi said DUI would also have 
monitors in all polling stations and would be able to "solve 
all problems on its own," as long as the police act 
professionally.  SDSM's Ivanovski said he expected DUI/DPA 
clashes "in all areas where DPA is slightly stronger than 
DUI." 
 
...EXPECTATIONS ABOUT VOTER TURNOUT 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) VMRO's Veljanovski told us May 29 VMRO needs about 
400,000 people out of the over 1.7 million eligible voters to 
come out and vote.  With such a turnout, "92 eMacedonian MP 
seats will be at play," he said.  SDSM's Ivanovski predicted 
a higher turnout of eMacedoniana than in 2006, and a slightly 
lower eAlbanian turnout, especially in Electoral District 6, 
in which only 50% of registered voters actually reside in the 
District. 
 
...PROJECTED RESULTS 
-------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Asked about election result predictions, DPA's 
Dogani claimed his party would be victorious in all eAlbanian 
areas, except for Kichevo, Zajez and Oslomej, where "DPA 
supporters have been threatened by DUI."  At any rate, Dogani 
added, DPA will end up with at least two more MP seats than 
rival DUI.  DUI's Arifi refrained from commenting on likely 
election results, but said VMRO would look at DUI as a 
potential coalition partner only if "VMRO and DPA fail in 
their attempt to falsify the election results."  According to 
VMRO's Veljanovski, the ratio in the eMacedonian camp will be 
either 60/30, or 65/25 MP seats in favor of VMRO against 
SDSM.  Contrary to Gruevski's recent public statements in 
support of DPA, Veljanovski said VMRO did not favor one 
eAlbanian party over the other and would be open to forming a 
governing coalition with the winner, or even "an eAlbanian 
party that has 2-3 fewer MP seats than its rival." 
 
LAST POLLS AND MEDIA APPEALS BEFORE THE ELECTIONS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶9. (SBU) On May 26, media reported on the results of the last 
opinion poll before the June 1 elections conducted by the 
Skopje-based Institute for Democracy on May 24-25.  The polls 
show that VMRO, with 31.3% support, kept its three-to-one 
lead over SDSM (11.2%), while DUI enjoys the support of 9.1% 
of the respondents and DPA of 5.6%.  Over 40% of the 
respondents said they had not decided whom to vote for.  A 
local political analyst dismissed the validity of the opinion 
poll, since it had been conducted only in Electoral District 
1, and as such was not representative of the whole country. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Hours before the end of the campaign period at 
midnight tonight, all media have come out with strong 
 
SKOPJE 00000356  003 OF 003 
 
 
messages of support for a free and peaceful election process 
and an appeal to citizens to vote "wisely, responsibly and in 
a European way."  A total of 2,898 polling stations will open 
Sunday at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m.  The State Electoral 
Committee is expected to announce the preliminary results 12 
hours after the end of voting.  The Embassy is deploying 24 
election monitoring teams, plus two teams assigned to ODIHR. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Macedonian politicians of all stripes have received 
the message that the election campaign intimidation, 
violence, and other problems have already marred the image of 
their country.  A peaceful and orderly Election Day could 
still make it possible for Macedonia to pass this important 
test and put the country back on track for its NATO and EU 
candidacies.  Election Day violence and intimidation, 
however, would probably result in a failing grade that could 
derail the country and lead to serious tensions in both the 
eAlbanian and eMacedonian communities, and between the two. 
Milovanovic