VZCZCXRO1854
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBW RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0339/01 1441118
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231118Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7364
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0315
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2279
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000339 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION TROUBLES 
CONTINUE 
 
REF: SKOPJE 333 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) In the run up to the June 1 parliamentary election, 
tensions between ethnic Albanian parties DUI and DPA 
continued sporadically over the past week, with DUI 
sustaining most of the property damage to its facilities. 
The State Electoral Committee (SEC) announced May 20 the 
completion of accrediting election monitors and the printing 
of the ballots for the June 1 early elections.  Opposition 
ethnic Macedonian party SDSM alleged heightened pressure and 
intimidation aimed against its activists, and criticized the 
government for spending public money for self-promotion and 
for allegedly supporting the "clone" SDPM party.  With the 
latest, reportedly VMRO influenced, opinion polls showing the 
governing VMRO with a three-to-one lead over SDSM, VMRO 
dismissed claims of unfair practices as unnecessary.  End 
summary. 
 
DUI/DPA INCIDENTS... 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Despite the continuous and forceful International 
Community (IC) message to eAlbanian politicians to stop 
pre-election violence (reftel), incidents have continued. 
The media reported that on May 16 DUI activists in Gostivar 
were attacked and two injured, allegedly by DPA supporters, 
some of them members of the "Alpha" special police units. 
DPA publicly refuted these allegations on May 20.  On May 18, 
a DUI office in Tetovo and a DPA office in Glogi near Tetovo 
were reportedly attacked and damaged.  On May 21, DUI's 
Gostivar electoral headquarters chief Besir Jashari told us 
that on May 20 unknown persons driving 20 vehicles without 
license plates attacked five DUI offices and stole DUI 
election materials. 
 
...RECRIMINATIONS CONTINUE 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Mutual recriminations continued both in private and 
in the media.  On May 19, DUI publicly accused Minister of 
Interior Jankuloska and Deputy Minister of Interior Elmazi (a 
DPA appointee) of participating in DPA Thaci's "butchery." 
Not to be outdone, on the same day DPA's elections 
spokesperson released footage of Gostivar mayor and prominent 
DUI figure Bejta brandishing a gun and making comments "that 
normal citizens will find shocking."  Accusing DPA of 
manipulating the public, Bejta said the footage had been 
filmed during a hunting trip last year.  In a May 21 meeting 
with the Ambassador, DPA's former president, and prominent 
eAlbanian intellectual, Arben Xhaferi assessed both eAlbanian 
and eMacedonian politicians as "politically and 
democratically immature."  Saying that the country simply had 
to go through this "bad period," Xhaferi nevertheless pledged 
to try "to stop the madness, because you cannot build a 
political future on dead bodies."  However, the media has not 
reported Xhaferi making any subsequent forceful statements 
against the violence. 
 
 
SEC: MONITORS AND BALLOTS READY FOR ELECTIONS... 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4. (SBU) On May 20, the State Electoral Committee (SEC) 
approved the accreditation requests of about 230 
international and 320 domestic election monitors.  The SEC 
also finalized the ballots format and randomly determined the 
order in which candidates will appear on the ballot.  The SEC 
will provide bilingual ballots in municipalities with more 
than 20% minority residents.  Thus, in 52 municipalities the 
ballots will be only in Macedonian; in 26 in Macedonian and 
Albanian; in four in Macedonian and Turkish; in one in 
Macedonian and Serbian; and in one in Macedonian, Roma, and 
Albanian. 
 
...BUT ODIHR IS CONCERNED 
------------------------- 
 
 
SKOPJE 00000339  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) On May 21, ODIHR Ambassador Barry told the 
Ambassador that ODIHR Short-Term Observer teams (STOs) were 
well under the originally planned numbers, due to a 
smaller-than-predicted number of volunteers and some 
subsequent dropouts.  He also noted that he was concerned 
about the SEC's lack of a security plan, especially for 
potential election "hot spots" in primarily eAlbanian areas. 
Barry said that District 5, including the city of Bitola, is 
the only primarily eMacedonian area reporting complaints, 
most related to governing VMRO's misuse of administrative 
resources.  Ambassador Barry added that the Ministry of 
Interior's (MOI) response to pre-election violence was 
"uninspiring," noting that neither Minister Jankuloska, nor 
MOI's Safety Director seemed to be very engaged. 
 
SDSM CRITICIZES GOM FOR HARASSING SDSM ACTIVISTS... 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) On May 20, SDSM informed election monitoring NGO 
MOST of recent harassment of SDSM activists who had tried to 
put up posters in Bitola.  Allegedly, VMRO activists tore 
down the posters, while the Bitola police station remained 
passive.  Media reported May 22 that the brother of the SDSM 
candidate in Stip was arrested and briefly detained for 
filming a May 20 VMRO rally from an apartment balcony.  The 
police charge that he gained access to the apartment by 
falsely claiming to be an MOI official.  SDSM spokesperson 
Stankovic told us that the filming took place from the 
apartment of the Secretary General of the local SDSM branch, 
and that the SDSM official and the other two people present 
were all handcuffed and charged with false identification. 
The police reportedly confiscated the camera and the video 
tape. 
 
...SUPPORTING "CLONE" SDPM 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In a May 19 conversation with the DCM, the Prime 
Minister Gruevski's Chief of Staff, Martin Protoger, claimed 
VMRO had no influence with opposition SDSM "clone" party 
SDPM, which is running candidates with names similar or 
identical to five SDSM candidates' names.  The DCM suggested 
to Protoger that, since SDPM's president is an ex-VMRO member 
and a current VMRO appointee in the Ministry of Labor, VMRO 
has the political influence to persuade him to withdraw from 
the elections.  Pointing to the three-to-one lead enjoyed by 
VMRO, Protoger asserted his party "does not need tricks to 
win," and pronounced SDPM's methods were "maybe unethical, 
but not illegal."  The DCM emphasized that Macedonia needs a 
clean election, and that if the clone party stays on the 
ballot it will provide strong grounds for criticism, both 
domestic and international.  Protoger pledged to recommend to 
the Prime Minister that he issue a public statement deploring 
the clone party.  The DCM raised this again with Protoger on 
May 23. 
 
¶8. (SBU) By May 22, Gruevski had not made such a statement, 
and the ballots went to print with the SDPM's candidates on 
them.  The SEC's spokesperson told us May 22 that the ballots 
needed to be printed and the Supreme Court had not ruled on 
SDSM's complaint regarding SDPM's candidates.  The SEC vice 
president Jakupi added that while he considered SDPM's 
participation a violation of the Electoral Code, the Public 
Prosecutor had the responsibility to pursue any charges 
against SDPM.  According to the media, the Public Prosecutor 
started an investigation against SDPM last week, following 
reports that many of the "clone candidates" had allegedly 
been put on the ballot without their knowledge.  However, 
there was no indication that the Public Prosecutor's 
investigation would be concluded before the election. 
 
...SPENDING OF PUBLIC FUNDS 
--------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) May 18, SDSM accused Gruevski's government of having 
spent 35 million euros of government funds on self-promoting 
advertising over the past 18 months, including some 700,000 
euros during the past 30 days.  In response, the government 
announced it would stop all government-funded information 
campaigns for the duration of the election.  On May 22, PM 
 
SKOPJE 00000339  003 OF 003 
 
 
Gruevski spoke at the grand opening of a 10,000-seat sports 
hall built with public funds.  The majority of the very 
receptive crowd had reportedly received government-provided 
tickets. 
 
OPINION POLLS 
-------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) According to the latest opinion polls of the 
Institute for Democracy, 30.2% of respondents said they would 
vote for VMRO, while 10.6% were in favor of SDSM.  Among the 
eAlbanian voters, 9.2% supported DUI and 5.6% supported DPA. 
PM Gruevski is still the politician with the highest approval 
rating (32.2%), while SDSM's Sekerinska comes second with 
12.2%, followed by DUI's Ahmeti with 9.1% and DPA's Thaci 
with 4% approval.  Soon after the publication of the polls, 
SDSM disputed their accuracy, saying the Institute of 
Democracy is related to VMRO activist Gorgi Ivanov and GOM 
spokesperson Bocevski. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) The election campaign continues to be tarnished by 
violence and intimidation, primarily in the ethnic Albanian 
communities, which continue to be directed mostly against 
DUI, as well as the appearance of "clone candidates" on the 
ballot.  On May 21, the Ambassador briefly answered questions 
from the media and again called on the government and 
political leaders to end the violence and intimidation and 
ensure the perpetrators are legally punished. In the coming 
days we will continue to privately and publicly send the 
message that any further violence, intimidation, or election 
irregularities will significantly damage Macedonia's 
democratic image. 
MILOVANOVIC