VZCZCXRO9670
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBW RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0314/01 1301258
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091258Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7328
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0302
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2270
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000314 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION COALITIONS READY FOR MAY 11 
CAMPAIGN START 
 
REF: SKOPJE 292 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (SBU) A week before the May 11 official kick-off of the 
election campaign (reftel), the State Electoral Committee 
(SEC) approved 19 party lists, including the VMRO-led 
coalition "For Better Macedonia" and the opposition SDSM-led 
"SUN - Coalition for Europe."  Minority and small parties 
traditionally allied with SDSM have abandoned the opposition 
to join PM Gruevski's VMRO coalition.  In exchange for 
generous promises of ministerial positions and special 
minority rights legislation, Gruevski appears to be trying to 
accumulate ethnic minority votes that would help him achieve 
double-majority votes on legislation affecting ethnic 
minority interests.  He also appears to be leaning toward a 
renewed partnership with his eAlbanian governing partner DPA. 
 High-level eAlbanian DUI officials have warned that a repeat 
of the VMRO-DPA coalition would signal a rejection of the 
will of eAlbanian voters; they have suggested that such an 
outcome could lead to the "federalization" of the country.  A 
recent opinion poll shows higher approval ratings for three 
of the big four parties (VMRO, DPA and DUI), while SDSM's 
approval rating is slightly lower.  The clear front-runner, 
VMRO, is gearing up for a decisive victory.  With ODIHR 
Long-Term Observers deployed to the field and a Code of 
Conduct signed by over 30 party leaders, most preliminary 
preparations are over and the parties are ready to kick-off 
the official campaign season.  End summary. 
 
SEC APPROVES 19 PARTY LISTS 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On May 5, the SEC confirmed the MP candidate lists 
of 19 parties, coalitions and independents.  The SEC was 
expected to determine the parties' order on the ballot 
through a random drawing on May 9.  A May 2 SEC decision 
stipulated that the Supreme Court --rather than the 
Administrative Court-- would deal with allegations of 
electoral rights infringements. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The ruling VMRO party has formed the coalition "For 
A Better Macedonia" with 18 other parties, including 10 
minority parties.  Opposition SDSM's coalition "SUN - 
Coalition for Europe" comprises eight parties, including 
former VMRO allies NSDP and LP.  Three prominent NSDP 
members, including former Minister of Defense Elenovski and 
former Minister of Economy Rafajlovska, splintered off in 
protest of NSDP's new coalition arrangement.  On the 
eAlbanian side, traditional rivals DUI, DPA and (the much 
less influential) PDP were joined by the newly-formed DUA in 
submitting candidate lists. 
 
SMALLER PARTIES GRAVITATE TOWARDS PRESUMED VICTOR 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In a May 7 meeting with PolOff, Democratic Party of 
the Turks (DPT) President Hasipi stated that, after six years 
in coalition with SDSM, the DPT was hesitatingly joining the 
VMRO coalition and "choosing the lesser of two evils." 
Less-than-elated with his new coalition partner, Hasipi 
admitted that VMRO had given him a good deal: he received a 
high position on the candidate list and a promise of a 
Minister position in the new government. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Democratic Party of Serbs (DPS) President 
Stoiljkovic told us May 8 he had left his traditional 
coalition partner SDSM, after 17 years, with the help of a 
good "incentive package" from VMRO.  In exchange for his 
participation in VMRO's coalition, Stoiljkovic claimed he had 
secured a guaranteed MP seat for himself; chairmanship of a 
promised new agency on minority rights; one deputy minister 
position; "several directorships of public enterprises;" and 
MFA slots for "two foreign-educated sons of DPS members." 
Probably overestimating his influence in the coalition, 
Stoiljkovic said he had asked Gruevski to delay Kosovo 
recognition by a few months.  He added that he had warned 
Gruevski that, as soon as Macedonia recognized Kosovo, he 
would leave Parliament in protest. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Boris Stojmenov, President of VMRO-Makedonska and 
 
SKOPJE 00000314  002 OF 003 
 
 
owner of influential Kanal 5 TV, told PolOff May 8 it was 
"quite natural" that his party had joined Gruevski's 
coalition.  Admitting that "some in the coalition have been 
pressing me to make Kanal 5 a VMRO party channel," Stojmenov 
asserted he would not succumb to the pressure.  Stojmenov 
interpreted Gruevski's promise to give him the Minister of 
Economy job as evidence of Stojmenov's influence over 
Gruevski, while playing down the role his TV station may have 
during the campaign season. 
 
GRUEVSKI GEARING UP FOR A BADINTER MAJORITY WITHOUT DUI? 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Gruevski's "For A Better Macedonia" coalition 
includes one Turkish, one Serbian, two Bosniak, one Vlach and 
five Roma parties.  The coalition seems certain to win at 
least six minority MP seats in the next Parliament.  That, in 
addition to DPA's MPs, could help secure for Gruevski the 
Badinter (double) majority of ethnic minority MPs he needs to 
pass some laws.  The big question remains how many of the 
still undecided eAlbanian votes DPA will win. 
VMRO-Makedonska's Stojmenov said Gruevski's recent public 
support for DPA was meant "to help DPA get more eAlbanian 
votes," but cautioned that it would be "bad for the country's 
security" if Gruevski again chose DPA as a governing partner. 
 
 
DUI RAISES THE SPECTER OF FEDERALIZATION 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Unhappy with these developments, DUI President 
Ahmeti said at a May 7 rally that, if VMRO chose as a partner 
the eAlbanian party that received fewer votes (presumably 
DPA) than the eAlbanian front-runner (presumably DUI), that 
would mean that "the eMacedonians, and not we, are making 
decisions about our future."  DUI's election headquarters 
chief went even further, confirming on May 8 to EmbOff that 
he had told the Kosova Press Agency that "if the eMacedonians 
ignore the eAlbanians' political will, that may lead the 
eAlbanians to look for a different political and societal 
organization, including federalization." 
 
SDSM FIGHTING WITH CLONE SDPM 
----------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Social Democratic Party of Macedonia (SDPM) has 
stirred up passions here. Clearly intended to mislead SDSM 
(the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia) supporters, the 
SDPM list has candidates with similar or identical names to 
those of the SDSM-led coalition (e.g. Rada Sekerova (SDPM) 
against Radmila Sekerinska (SDSM); Zoran Zasev against Zoran 
Zaev, etc).  This trick was relatively successful in the 2006 
elections when SDSM lost 3,500 votes in District 4 in 
Southeastern Macedonia, in addition to 1,500 invalid ballots, 
all because of confusion with the clone SDPM.  Widely 
believed to be supported by VMRO, SDPM has been attacked by 
the media, who located some of the SDSM "doubles," most of 
them unemployed or elderly, and who are at best dimly aware 
of their political role. 
 
VMRO, DPA AND DUI UP IN OPINION POLL 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶10. (SBU) A May 5 opinion poll by the local Democracy 
Institute showed approval for VMRO was at 29.2%, higher than 
a few weeks ago, while SDSM's 9.8% rating was slightly lower. 
 According to the same survey, both DUI and DPA increased 
their support, from 9.9% to 10.8% for DUI, and from 5.1% to 
5.7% for DPA.  Not surprisingly, Gruevski is still the most 
trusted politician, with 29.5% approval, followed by DUI's 
Ahmeti at 11.2% and President Crvenkovski at 7.5%.  The 
Democracy Institute survey showed SDSM's Sekerinska, with her 
3.2% approval rating, trailing even behind DPA's Thaci at 4.5% 
 
ODIHR OBSERVERS DEPLOYED; NDI CODE OF CONDUCT SIGNED 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) ODIHR HOM Ambassador Barry briefed IC principals 
May 6 that ODIHR Long-Term Observers (LTOs) had been deployed 
earlier that day.  LTOs, and observers of the Macedonian NGO 
MOST will liaise in the field, while LTOs are preparing 
 
SKOPJE 00000314  003 OF 003 
 
 
ODIHR's interim report on the political situation before the 
elections.  Unlike in the past, ODIHR will have only limited 
local IC support, with approximately two teams per bilateral 
mission.  In addition, two parliamentary delegations will 
take part in the monitoring: one from the Council of Europe, 
and one from OSCE's Parliamentary Assembly. 
 
¶12. (SBU) In a highly-publicized event in Parliament May 8, 
more than 30 party leaders signed the NDI Code of Conduct for 
free and fair elections.  Organized under the motto, "We Can 
and We Must. Fair Elections 2008," NDI Country Director 
Henshaw described the campaign as "a clear signal to party 
activists and supporters that Macedonia must have fair 
elections." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) On May 7, MOST accused "the four big parties" 
(VMRO, SDSM, DPA and DUI) of having violated the election 
regulations by starting their campaigns before the official 
May 11 start.  The parties' response was to redouble their 
efforts in preparation for the rapid deployment of their 
campaigns as soon as the official signal is given this 
weekend.  Violent incidents are still isolated and with no 
casualties.  Disconcerting reports of nightly shooting in the 
predominantly eAlbanian Skopje municipality of Cair are seen 
as related to the elections. 
NAVRATIL