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DE RUEHDG #0751/01 1361543
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151543Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0722
INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMISTA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 000751 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON DR
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DOMINICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, 
MAY 16 
 
REF: A. SANTO DOMINGO 0418 (GOVT'S RULES VIOLATIONS) 
     ¶B. SANTO DOMINGO 0699 (OAS REPORT) 
     ¶C. SANTO DOMINGO 0668 (PRD CLAIMS POSSIBLE FRAUD) 
     ¶D. SANTO DOMINGO 0180 (DIVERGING POLLS) 
     ¶E. SANTO DOMINGO 0039 (RHETORIC HEATS UP) 
     ¶F. 07 SANTO DOMINGO 2366 (SUMMARY OF CAMPAIGN) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Dominicans go to the polls on Friday May 16 in the 
fourth presidential election since 1994, when widespread 
fraud led to significant reforms to the electoral system. 
Since 1994, substantial USAID funds have been used to 
strengthen the Central Elections Board (JCE), make it more 
independent, and support civil society monitoring of the 
Board.  The results have been positive:  There is a consensus 
here that the current JCE is qualified and independent and, 
while not without any faults, may be the strongest Board 
to-date.  Polling shows that 72 percent of Dominicans rate 
their confidence in the Board as "high" or "average."  This 
JCE has faced the challenge of addressing the issue of the 
use of government spending to favor incumbent candidate 
Leonel Fernandez (Refs A-B). 
 
U.S. Interests 
-------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) U.S. interests regarding the election have focused 
on the strength of the democratic system, management of 
elections, and quality of the related government 
institutions, as well as the civil society organizations that 
monitor them (see Reftels).  The U.S. and foreign policy in 
general have played little-to-no role in the campaign.  The 
PLD and PRD both value highly their relationship with the 
U.S., support CAFTA, and are cautious about criticizing Hugo 
Chavez for fear of jeopardizing the significant aid the 
country receives via Venezuela's Petrocaribe program. 
 
The Polls 
--------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The latest poll, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Diario 
Libre, shows Fernandez, of the Dominican Liberation Party 
(PLD), leading Miguel Vargas Maldonado, of the Dominican 
Revolutionary Party (PRD), by 55 to 37 percent.  The results 
of this poll, which are similar to the findings of other 
surveys going back to the beginning of the year, suggest that 
Fernandez has a good chance to obtain the 50 percent that he 
needs to avoid a second-round runoff election.  There are 
five other candidates.  Amable Aristy Castro of the once 
dominant PRSC party is polling at 6 percent, while the other 
four candidates -- Eduardo Estrella, Trajano Santana, Pedro 
de Jesus Candelier, and Guillermo Moreno -- each receive 
about one percent in surveys. 
 
Election Observation 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The respected local NGO Participacion Ciudadana is 
carrying out a domestic election observation effort.  This 
operation, to which the USG has contributed US$400,000, will 
field 4,000 observers.  Participacion Ciudadana has 
comprehensively covered the pre-election period in its 
reports, including citing in detail the ways in which 
government spending is used to favor incumbent presidential 
candidate Leonel Fernandez. 
 
¶5. (SBU) International observation is being led by the 
Organization of American States.  The OAS mission is led by 
Argentinean diplomat Jose Octavio Bordon, and has been funded 
with $180,000 of USG resources.  On May 6, the OAS issued a 
"Pre-Electoral Report" which praised the performance of the 
JCE; criticized the ruling PLD party for spending state 
resources on the campaign; and, effectively put the 
opposition PRD party on notice that technical problems 
regarding the new electronic vote count were not significant 
enough to affect the outcome of the election (Ref B). 
 
¶6. (U) Fourteen EMBOFFs will be serving as volunteer 
observers under the OAS flag.  Both Participacion Ciudadana 
and the OAS are conducting quick counts on election day.  In 
addition, the polling firm Penn and Schoen will be carrying 
out an exit poll. 
 
Timetable and Statistics 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. (U) The last day that campaigning is permitted is May 14 
 
SANTO DOMI 00000751  002 OF 002 
 
 
and, traditionally, the political parties here respect the 
one-day cooling off period.  This had been considered one of 
the least violent campaigns in recent memory; however, 
election-related incidents in Barahona and Montecristi on May 
9 and 15 resulted in the deaths of four people.  The sale of 
alcohol is banned on May 15 and 16.  Public schools, which 
host most of the voting stations, are closed May 14-16 to 
facilitate the organization of voting day activities. 
 
¶8. (U) The polls will be open from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.  In 
past elections, the JCE has issued its "First Bulletin" of 
results late in the evening or in the early hours of the 
following day.  However, this year the Board hopes to 
publicize the preliminary vote count at 8:00 or 9:00 p.m. 
Early bulletins do not always contain a significant sample, 
so there is a possibility that the winner (or the fact that a 
runoff will be held) will not be known until midday on May 17. 
 
¶9. (U) There are 5.76 million registered voters and 4,005 
voting stations.  Some 155,000 of the voters are registered 
abroad, a significant increase since overseas voting was 
first permitted in 2004. 
 
(U) Please visit us at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/  
FANNIN