VZCZCXRO4599
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH RUEHTRO
DE RUEHGO #0306/01 1231004
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021004Z MAY 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7457
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1099
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4646
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8187
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5749
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3622
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1501
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000306 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR USAID/OFDA, EAP/MLS, AND S/ES-O-CMS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: PREPARATIONS FOR CYCLONE NARGIS 
 
RANGOON 00000306  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Cyclone Nargis is headed for Burma's 
Irrawaddy Delta and expected to make landfall this evening. 
Embassy Rangoon has issued warden messages and phoned coastal 
beach resorts.  The DATT's office is attempting to establish 
direct contact with the regional commander of the effected 
area through their military liaison.  Post is also in contact 
with the Myanmar Red Cross and United Nations officials 
coordinating possible international responses.  The GOB has 
traditionally declined international assistance, as they did 
after the 2004 Tsunami.  We expect the regime to be 
especially averse to accepting foreign assistance at this 
time, due to the political sensitivities surrounding the 
upcoming constitutional referendum.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Cyclone Nargis is headed for Burma's Irrawaddy 
Delta and expected to make landfall at approximately 1830 
today.  Our latest information indicates Nargis's path is 
headed very close to Rangoon.  The storm's wind speed is down 
to 115 knots per hour and it is expected to lose strength 
when it hits land.  Nargis is projected to have sustained 
wind of up to 70 knots by the time it hits Rangoon.  Embassy 
Rangoon has issued warden messages and phoned Beach resorts 
on the West Coast to warn American tourists of the incoming 
storm.  Most beach resorts have already closed due to the 
start of the rainy season. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Burma's last major cyclone occurred in May, 2004, 
in Rakhine State, although other smaller ones have hit, 
including one last year.  17 people were killed but flooding 
affected almost 70,000 people.  The Military's regional 
commanders are responsible for coordinating relief and 
security measures for natural disasters in their areas, along 
with the Myanmar Red Cross.  The DATT's office has 
established contact with their military liaison officer, who 
asked for a formal request in writing to establish a direct 
liaison with the military commanders of the effected areas. 
They have not received a reply so far.  Myanmar Red Cross 
representatives told us that the Department of Metrology and 
Hydrology had alerted Township General Administration Offices 
where the storm was likely to strike.  The Township offices 
were instructed to prepare and coordinate with local NGOs, 
including the Red Cross.  Some townships have already done 
this.  The Myanmar Red Cross is also in touch with the local 
office of the International Federation of the Red Cross, 
which is expected to take a lead role in any international 
humanitarian response, in cooperation with the United 
Nations. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) There have been some notices in the paper of the 
impending storm, and we were informed today that all domestic 
flights have been canceled for Saturday, May 3.  The only 
domestic flights leaving Rangoon today are to Mandalay, where 
the GOB has decided to move all airplanes.  The United 
Nations is in contact with its relevant operational partners 
to track the situation as it develops over the weekend and 
assess impact and damage from the storm.  If needed, they 
will convene an emergency coordination meeting to evaluate 
the situation and a possible response. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The UN expects the Irrawaddy Delta region to be hit 
hard, possibly resulting in major damage to rice crops. The 
local United Nations Response Coordinator, Julie Belanger, 
told pol/econ chief today that given Burma's poor 
communication infrastructure and the regime's penchant for 
secrecy, it may take a few days to access storm damage and 
resulting needs.  Belanger noted the cyclone was hitting at 
the worst possible time, immediately before the regime's May 
10 constitutional referendum.  Paranoia and secrecy are at an 
all-time high, and she fears the regime may even refuse the 
UN travel permission to assess storm damage. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment:  The GOB traditionally has turned down 
international assistance, as it did after the 2004 Tsunami 
and after a cyclone and major flooding last year.  We agree 
with Belanger that the regime may be especially averse to 
international assistance at what they consider a politically 
sensitive time.  To better assess the situation, we will 
 
RANGOON 00000306  002 OF 002 
 
 
maintain contact with the UN and local NGO Metta, which was 
allowed access to areas in the Irrawaddy Delta after the 
Tsunami that foreigners were forbidden to visit.  Post will 
 
SIPDIS 
keep State Ops, CMS, and OFDA posted regarding damage 
assessments.  End comment. 
VILLAROSA