VZCZCXRO4847
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0403/01 1360752
ZNY EEEEE ZZH
P 150752Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS E F T O SECTION 01 OF 04 PHNOM PENH 000403 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MLS, EAP/PD AND DRL; USAID FOR ANE; F 
FOR JIM MARTIN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM CB
SUBJECT: CAMBODIA PUBLIC OPINION: FAVORABLE TOWARD U.S. AND 
CPP 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED/NOFORN.  NOT FOR INTERNET 
DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1.  (SBU/NOFORN) In a recent Cambodia public opinion poll, 87 
percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of the United 
States.  International Republican Institute (IRI) conducted 
the public opinion survey in February 2008 and found public 
opinion of the U.S. higher than for any other country 
identified.  An increasing number of respondents believe the 
country is headed in the right direction -- 77 percent in 
February 2008 up from 71 percent one year ago.  Eighty-six 
percent of Cambodians polled agreed with a trial of top Khmer 
Rouge leaders.  When asked which party respondents choose for 
the upcoming National Assembly election, 59 percent stated 
they choose the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), compared to 
15 percent for the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP).  The SRP lost 
eight percentage points of support in this opinion poll 
compared to IRI's last survey in August 2007.  During this 
poll, interviews were conducted with 2,000 respondents from 
22 out of 24 Cambodian provinces.  Some survey information 
about attitudes toward foreign countries, party support in 
the upcoming National Assembly election, confidence in 
leaders, and other information was released to U.S. Mission 
staff only and was not shared with the political parties or 
with the public.  This information is marked "NOFORN" 
throughout this report.  The full IRI report is with the 
Cambodia Desk at the Department.  IRI presented other, 
unrestricted survey findings with the Council of Ministers 
and major political party representatives, and will hold a 
press conference the latter half of May to disseminated the 
survey's public findings.  We will share the public portion 
with other Embassies and orally brief them on some of the 
more sensitive findings.  From IRI's presentation to Deputy 
Prime Minister Sok An, there were indications that Prime 
Minister Hun Sen reviews IRI opinion poll data. 
 
Most Cambodians Hold A Favorable Opinion of the U.S. 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU/NOFORN) IRI conducted its most recent public opinion 
survey in January and February 2008, conducting 2,000 valid 
interviews resulting in a survey outcome with a (plus or 
minus) 2.8 percent margin of error.  During the survey, 87 
percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of the U.S.: 
54 percent responded they have a "very favorable" opinion of 
the U.S., 33 percent "somewhat favorable", four percent 
"somewhat unfavorable", eight percent "very unfavorable". 
Compared to an August 2007 IRI survey when more than 90 
percent of respondents held a positive opinion of the U.S., 
this year's percentage of favorable ratings are slightly 
lower.  However, in 2007 the survey question was worded 
differently, asking Cambodians how confident they were in the 
U.S. 
 
¶3.  (SBU/NOFORN) In the 2008 survey, the age groupings 
holding the most favorable views of the U.S. were ages 40 to 
49 (58 percent "very favorable" and 33 percent "somewhat 
favorable") and ages 30 to 39 (60 percent "very favorable", 
30 percent "somewhat favorable"); the age groups with the 
lowest percentage of favorable ratings were ages 60 and older 
(42 percent "very favorable", 39 percent "somewhat 
favorable") and ages 18 to 24 (50 percent "very favorable" 
and 35 percent "somewhat favorable").  Ninety-two percent of 
respondents who support the SRP held favorable opinions of 
the U.S. compared to 85 percent of CPP supporters, 91 percent 
of Human Rights Party (HRP), 89 percent Norodom Ranariddh 
Party (NRP), and 87 percent FUNCINPEC.  The U.S. received 
higher favorability ratings than all other countries in the 
poll:  (in order of favorability) Japan, the U.K., France, 
Australia, Thailand, Canada, South Korea, China, North Korea, 
Malaysia, India, Laos, Russia, Vietnam, Burma, Saudi Arabia. 
Of note, 77 percent of respondents gave favorable ratings for 
Japan; 74 percent for the U.K.; 71 percent for France; 70 
percent for Australia; 62 percent for China; 53 percent for 
North Korea; 39 percent for Russia; 34 percent for Burma; and 
20 percent for Saudi Arabia. 
 
Cambodia is Headed in the Right Direction 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) During the February 2008 survey, 77 percent of 
those surveyed believe the country is headed in the right 
direction, up from 60 percent in August 2006, 71 percent in 
January 2007, and 75 percent in August 2007.  The building of 
roads and schools, along with other infrastructure, is the 
top reason why respondents believe the country is headed in 
the right direction.  Twenty percent of those surveyed in 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000403  002 OF 004 
 
 
2008 believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, 
down from 37 percent in August 2006, 29 percent in January 
2007, and 22 percent in August 2007.  Among reasons stated 
why Cambodia is headed in the wrong direction were high 
prices of goods, corruption, and poverty. 
 
Strong Showings for CPP; Decreasing Support for SRP, 
FUNCINPEC, NRP 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU/NOFORN) Responding to an open-ended question about 
which party they would choose for the July 2008 National 
Assembly election, 59 percent of those polled stated they 
choose the CPP, a one-percent increase over the August 2007 
poll results.  During the February 2008 poll, 15 percent of 
respondents said they choose the SRP, eight percentage points 
less than during the August 2007 poll.  Twelve percent of 
respondents were undecided, an increase of six percentage 
points over 2007.  (NOTE: It appears that the SRP decline in 
support from 2007 moved to the undecided group. END NOTE.) 
IRI Country Director John Willis pointed out that support for 
the CPP in this survey roughly matched CPP wins in the April 
2007 commune council elections -- the CPP won 61 percent of 
commune council positions.  However, according to the survey, 
the SRP has seen a decrease in support since the April 2007 
commune council elections.  During those elections, the SRP 
won 25 percent of commune council positions compared to the 
18 percent of 2008 survey respondents who either stated they 
will choose the SRP in the National Assembly elections, or 
who are undecided and will very likely vote for the SRP in 
any election.  Although IRI's official survey presentation 
did not include this information, John Willis told Emboffs 
that the SRP had a relatively high amount of support among 
civil servant survey respondents.  Seven percent of 
respondents stated they will choose the Human Rights Party 
(HRP) in the National Assembly elections, and three percent 
of undecided respondents stated they would be very likely to 
vote for the HRP in any election.  Both FUNCINPEC and the 
Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) appear to have lost support 
since the 2007 commune council elections when FUNCINPEC won 
five percent of positions and the NRP won eight percent. 
During the February 2008 survey, three percent chose 
FUNCINPEC and five percent NRP.  Of undecided respondents, 
one percent said they were very likely to vote for FUNCINPEC 
in any election, and two percent said the NRP. 
 
Does CPP Stand for the Confident, Positive Party? 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6.  (SBU/NOFORN) When the statistics are broken down by 
political party support, the survey shows that 91 percent of 
CPP-supporting respondents believe that Cambodia is headed in 
the right direction compared to 52 percent of SRP, 43 percent 
of HRP, 62 percent of NRP, and 66 percent of FUNCINPEC 
supporters.  In response to the question, "How confident are 
you in the following leaders?" 88 percent said confident 
compared to 11 percent unconfident in Hun Sen.  When asked 
about Sam Rainsy, 58 percent said confident and 36 percent 
said unconfident.  For Prince Norodom Ranariddh, those 
percentages were 50 and 45, respectively.  For Kem Sokha, 38 
percent confident and 23 percent unconfident.  In response to 
questions about how confident respondents are that a 
particular party can solve national problems such as the high 
price of goods, drug trafficking, health care, high crime, 
corruption, degradation of the environment, and land taking, 
for all problems, the CPP brought in a higher percentage of 
"very confident" responses than the SRP, HRP, NRP and 
FUNCINPEC.  FUNCINPEC received the lowest confidence votes 
across the board.  When survey participants were asked 
whether the CPP would let go of power if the CPP lost the 
National Assembly election, 40 percent said they believed it 
was likely and 37 percent said unlikely -- the remainder 
responded that they didn't know. 
 
What are the Issues? 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU/NOFORN) According to the poll results, many 
Cambodians choose their party based on beliefs about who will 
improve infrastructure -- 40 percent stated building roads 
was their reason for voting, 36 percent said schools, 15 
percent said health clinics, and 12 percent said bridges. 
Lower down on the list were building pagodas and irrigation 
canals.  Twelve percent of all respondents stated they would 
vote for their preferred party because the party "ended the 
Pol Pot regime".  Eleven percent cited living conditions, and 
eight percent said corruption issues.  The responses broke 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000403  003 OF 004 
 
 
down somewhat differently when the political party of 
respondents was taken into account.  CPP voters made up the 
vast majority of those concerned with infrastructure.  The 
SRP and HRP supporters indicated they vote for their parties 
because of corruption issues and living conditions. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Respondents were asked several different questions 
about why they would vote for a particular political party. 
In one question the most popular responses out of a limited 
set of possible responses were:  has capable leaders, and has 
solutions that affect your daily life.  In a different 
question with a different set of possible responses the most 
popular responses were: fight corruption, build roads, and 
create jobs. 
 
Sok An and Staff, CPP, NRP, and FUNCINPEC React 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶9.  (SBU/NOFORN) IRI has thus far presented unrestricted 
survey results in separate meetings with Deputy Prime 
Minister and Minister of the Council of Ministers Sok An and 
his staff, and CPP, NRP and FUNCINPEC representatives.  A 
USAID officer who attended the meeting with Sok An reported 
that Sok An recalled part of a conversation with the Prime 
Minister about previous poll results indicating that Hun Sen 
is reviewing IRI poll data.  Sok An also made general 
comments related to survey questions about policy solutions 
to corruption, poverty and land-taking.  When IRI showed 
presentation slides of poll results regarding democratic 
concepts such as free media, transparency, and selecting 
leaders, Sok An asked questions about how these work in the 
U.S., specifically:  What are the rules in the U.S. regarding 
candidates' use of TV air time during election season? 
"Doesn't the U.S. have a problem with some stations being 
pro-Democrat, such as CNN, and others pro-Republican, such as 
FOX?"  What is the rule in the U.S. regarding disclosing the 
source of donations to political parties?  And, what country 
in the world puts term limits on the Prime Minister? 
 
¶10.  (SBU) In separate meetings with CPP, NRP and FUNCINPEC, 
party members generally had few questions.  CPP Cabinet Chief 
and Central Committee Member Senator Tep Ngorn stated that 
the CPP is concerned about corruption.  During the meeting 
with NRP members, NRP Secretary General and parliamentarian 
You Hokry expressed apprehension related to some of the 
restricted results shared only with parties being released to 
the general public. 
 
Dream Team Wake-Up Call? 
------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (SBU/NOFORN) Similar to the 2007 public opinion survey, 
IRI asked respondents in February 2008 who they would vote 
for if Sam Rainsy formed a coalition with Kem Sokha and 
Prince Norodom Ranariddh.  In February, 40 percent stated 
they would vote for the coalition, showing a 13 percent 
"coalition bonus" over the total percentage points if one 
just added the percentage support for each of the three 
candidates.  In the 2007 poll, 49 percent of respondents 
stated they would vote for the coalition, and 46 percent 
stated they thought this coalition would win the election. 
Asked about a coalition between Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha, 37 
percent of respondents in the 2008 survey stated they would 
vote for the coalition, compared to a total of 22 percent if 
one simply adds the percentage of support for each of the two 
candidates on their own.  (Comment:  The realistic time for 
coalition-building was in the fall of 2007; the last 
opportunity for parties to form pre-election coalitions 
passed on May 12, with the deadline for parties to register 
with the National Election Committee.  End Comment.) 
 
Khmer Rouge Tribunal On Solid Ground with Cambodians 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU/NOFORN) Eighty-six percent of Cambodians polled 
agreed with a trial of top Khmer Rouge leaders (69 percent 
"very much agree" and 17 percent "somewhat agree") compared 
to five percent responding that they disagreed with a trial 
(two percent "somewhat disagree" and three percent "very much 
disagree").  In response to a question about whether those 
surveyed are aware of the Khmer Rouge Tribunal (KRT) that is 
putting top Khmer Rouge leaders on trial, 71 percent said 
they were aware; 29 percent said they were not.  The age 
groups most aware of the KRT were those age 60 and older and 
age 50 to 59 (79 percent of each group said they were aware) 
with the younger age groups being less aware:  66 percent of 
age groups 18 to 24 and 25 to 29 stating they were aware of 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000403  004 OF 004 
 
 
the KRT. 
 
Survey Respondent Demographics 
------------------------------ 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Half of the 2,000 survey respondents were female; 
96 percent were Khmer.  The survey was conducted in all 
provinces except Mondulkiri and Oddar Meanchey, remote 
provinces with small populations.  Respondents from rural 
areas made up 85 percent of respondents, and urban the 
remaining 15 percent.  Thirty-one percent of those surveyed 
reported a monthly family income of USD 21 to 50 per month, 
another 31 percent earned USD 51 to 100.  Five percent 
reported income of USD 10 or less, and four percent reported 
income of more than USD 300.  The breakdown of age 
distribution was as follows:  14 percent age 18 to 24, 14 
percent 25 to 29, 23 percent 30 to 39, 22 percent 40 to 49, 
16 percent 50 to 59, and 12 percent 60 and older.  Twenty-one 
percent of respondents had received no formal education, 49 
percent had a primary-level education, 30 percent 
secondary-level or higher. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14. (SBU/NOFORN) We are not surprised by the overall 
favorable Cambodia public opinion toward the U.S. given the 
positive statements we have heard from everyday Cambodians 
throughout the country.  We take particular heart in 
Cambodians' favorable opinions compared to public opinion in 
many other countries -- a 2007 Pew Global Attitudes Survey 
showed that only two out of 47 countries surveyed matched 
Cambodia's high percentage of favorable ratings of the U.S. 
 
¶15.  (SBU/NOFORN) We note that the recent IRI survey was 
conducted before the recent surge in prices worldwide that 
has also harshly affected Cambodia and its substantial 
proportion of impoverished citizens.  IRI is not able to 
mount another survey before the July 27 National Assembly 
elections that could show observers how inflation has 
affected public opinion.  The ruling CPP party might stand to 
lose ground due to perceptions that the government is not 
doing enough to curb high prices. 
CAMPBELL