VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHZP #0433/01 1482135
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 272135Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2099
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000433 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  9TH EDITION, VOLUME II 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (b), (c) and ( 
d) 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) New polling data revealing a horse race in the 
governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) and a run-away 
lead by Panamenista presidential candidate Juan Carlos Varela 
in his party's race were the Panama Post's big scoop.  Though 
available for the past couple of weeks, this new polling 
information is only now making its way into the public 
domain.  PRD presidential candidate Balbina Herrera's 
political confidante National Assembly Deputy Hector Aleman 
was dismissive of these "momentary" polls when asked for his 
reaction on the morning drive-time radio talk-show circuit on 
May 27.  The new polling data, which is being confirmed by 
additional polling to be reported SEPTEL, suggests that the 
political leaders who control powerful machines in the 
traditional parties -- the PRD's Juan Carlos Navarro and the 
Panamenista Party's Juan Carlos Varela -- are formidable 
opponents.  In this week's edition, the Panama Post includes 
the following stories: 
 
-- a new CID/Gallup poll indicates that there is a horse race 
in the PRD, Varela is pulling away in a decisive manner in 
the Panamenista party, but Democratic Change (CD) 
presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli remains the 
preferred candidate in the broader opposition; 
-- Varela finally shares some of his internal polling that 
shows his commanding lead; 
-- Patriotic Union (UP) VP Jose Raul Mulino reacts to the new 
polling by saying that if Varela wins the Panamenista 
nomination that UP would enter into an alliance "the next 
day" with Martinelli; and 
-- Martinelli launches his race for the presidential palace. 
 
End summary. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
New Poll Reveals Interesting Developments 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) President Torrijos' negatives are way up, the gap 
between Revolutionary Democratic Party presidential 
candidates Balbina Herrera and Juan Carlos Navarro is 
closing, Panamenista Party presidential candidate Juan Carlos 
Varela is pulling away from Alberto Vallarino, and Democratic 
Change (CD) presidential candidate remains the preferred 
opposition candidate, CID-Gallup de Panama's May 5-11 poll 
revealed. A review of this poll's findings includes: 
 
-- About twice as many respondents evaluated Torrijos' job 
performance as "bad" or "very bad" (36%) than evaluated his 
performance as "good" or "very good" (19%).  Some 45% 
assessed Torrijos performance as "regular."  Torrijos' 
negatives outpaced his positives, and, since February, 
Torrijos' approval rating fell 23 points.  Torrijos was 
marked down for:  managing poorly the economy; not fulfilling 
his campaign's "zero corruption" pledge; being perceived as 
not acting in the public's interest; and for not governing in 
a "transparent manner." 
 
-- Respondents had a grim outlook for the future.  Only 24% 
said they perceived the economic futures for their families 
to be better.  Some 74% had a negative or static outlook with 
30% saying their economic future looked worse and 44% saying 
it looked the same.  The cost of living was far and away 
Panama's principle problem.  Four out of five voters said 
that they believed that Panama was headed in the wrong 
direction.  Shockingly, one out of every six respondents 
reported having a family member who had been the victim of an 
assault or robbery over the past four months.  Coupled with 
this grim outlook, there was significant voter apathy.  While 
a majority of respondents indicated that they did not belong 
to any political party, majorities -- regardless of party 
affiliation, education or economic status -- did not voice 
any political opinion. 
 
-- The gap between Herrera and Navarro appears to be closing. 
 Herrera still leads Navarro by seven points on the question 
assessing PRD party member voter intent, but Navarro 
significantly closed the gap from February rising from 19 to 
36 points while Herrera fell nine points.  Navarro made a 
significant recovery from February to May, but still has 
ground to cover to pull even with Herrera. 
-- Varela is pulling away from Vallarino.  Varela leads 
Vallarino by either 24 or 34 points in the questions that 
assessed Panamenista party member voter intent.  (Note: 
There is a discrepancy between the report's graphic that 
indicates that Varela, at 58%, leads Vallarino, at 24%, by 34 
points, but the accompanying write-up only gives Varela a 24 
point lead.)  Regardless, Varela is opening up a significant 
lead over Vallarino. 
 
-- While the Panamenista race appeared to be clarifying, 
Martinelli nonetheless remained the preferred opposition 
candidate in the question that assessed opposition voter 
intent.  Martinelli recovered a bit rising from 22% in 
February to 25% in May and led over Varela by six points. 
Vallarino remained a distant third.  Six times more 
opposition voters in May (31%) responded "none" than did in 
February (5%). 
 
¶3. (C) (Editorial Note: State/INR provided post a copy of 
this poll.  Given the important developments revealed in this 
poll, post believed it important to share more broadly its 
assessment of this report.  Post is very grateful for INR's 
support.  Thank you very much, INR.) 
 
¶4. (C) Comment:  The results of this poll track closely with 
elements of a recently conducted Dichter and Neira poll, 
snippets of which post has gleaned from various contacts.  It 
appears that in the PRD, where it looked like Herrera might 
be pulling away from Navarro, instead there may be a horse 
race.  Conversely, in the Panamenista Party, where it looked 
like there was a neck-in-neck horse race, that Varela may be 
pulling away from Vallarino and developing a dominating lead. 
 Martinelli, however, sustains a small lead over Varela, may 
be closing with Herrera, but leads Navarro.  In her May 13 
breakfast with POLCOUNS, Herrera was exceedingly comfortable 
that Navarro was no longer a threat, and she spoke of getting 
organized for the general elections, planning a visit to 
Washington after she won the nomination, and taking time off 
between her presumed primary victory and the launch of her 
general election run to study English.  Vallarino campaign 
advisor Jose Manuel Teran told POLCOUNS over breakfast on May 
16, "The race (between Vallarino and Varela) is extremely 
close.  Don't believe what Varela or Vallarino tell you about 
having a commanding lead; it's not true."  If this poll is 
accurately reporting developing trends, then both Herrera and 
Vallarino may be in for a rude awakening.  It may explain the 
renewed vigor evident in Navarro's and Martinelli's 
campaigns. On May 16, Martinelli political advisor Jimmy 
Papadimitriu told POLCOUNS that Varela undermined the CD's 
alliance with MOLIRENA that was to be announced at 
Martinelli's May 18 campaign launch.  It is possible that 
Varela's surge in the Panamenista internal race caused 
MOLIRENA President Sergio Gonzalez-Ruiz to reconsider his 
next steps. 
 
------------------------------ 
Varela Shares a Poll (Finally) 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) Panamenista Party President and presidential 
nomination candidate "Juan Carlos Varela has the advantage in 
the Panamenista Party's primary elections and has increased 
his advantage over Alberto Vallarino since the December poll 
of this series," CID/Gallup reported in its March 2008 
private poll for Varela.  Varela provided POLCOUNS a copy of 
this internal campaign poll that he commissioned.  Among this 
polls key findings: 
 
-- "Support for Marco Ameglio is every day less; more of his 
followers are joining the ranks of Varela than of Vallarino," 
this poll asserted.  From December to March, support for 
Varela grew from 36 to 55 percent, while support for 
Vallarino remained essentially steady falling only two points 
over the same period from 34 to 32 percent. 
-- Both Varela and Vallarino "are weaker in the Greater 
Panama City area than they are in the interior." 
-- The primary reason for Varela's advantage was that "he is 
perceived as being a much more honest person than Vallarino." 
 A majority (55 percent) said Varela would be the best 
candidate to fight corruption. 
-- More women than men support Varela, whereas more men than 
women tend to support Vallarino and Ameglio. 
-- "It is important to note that among those people who 
declared themselves to be Panamenistas, only thirty-eight 
percent are enlisted in the party," the poll stated. 
"Another twenty percent say that they are thinking about 
enlisting in the party but have not done so.  Half of these 
people would vote for Varela if they were enlisted." 
-- Eight out of 10 respondents indicated that they intended 
to vote for the Panamenista Party in the general elections. 
A total of 89 percent of those polled indicated that the 
country was headed in the wrong direction. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Technical data:  This poll, commissioned by Varela, 
was carried out from February 29 to March 4, 2008 by CID 
Gallup Panama.  Only self-identified Panamenista Party 
members or sympathizers were included in this poll.  All 
interviews were conducted in homes and face-to-face.  (In 
another portion of the accompanying technical data, this poll 
states that some interviews were conducted via telephone.) 
Interviews were done in homes that were randomly selected and 
distributed according to demographic data.  This poll 
included residents in greater Panama City, Chiriqui and Bocas 
del Toro provinces, and "central provinces."  The poll did 
not include rural parts of Panama province, the city of 
Colon, Darien province or the San Blas islands.  A total of 
1,206 individuals were interviewed. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: The Panama Post has finally gotten its hands 
on an internal Panamenista poll.  While the poll that Varela 
finally delivered is nearly two months old, it is the only 
snapshot of the internal party dynamics that the Panama Post 
has seen to date.  Varela, with his "Clean Hands" slogan, has 
strived to make honesty a core theme of his campaign. 
Additionally, he has been placing significant emphasis on 
signing up new party members.  If this poll is accurate, both 
strategies should pay dividends for Varela.  Vallarino has 
been competing with Varela to enlist more party members, a 
counterproductive strategy for Vallarino if this poll's 
indicators are correct.  Traditionally, the Panamenista Party 
has been stronger in rural Panama, not in urban areas, hence 
the emphasis of both candidates in the primary at looking for 
support outside of Panama City.  The May CID/Gallup reported 
in paras 2-4 would seem to suggest that Varela is indeed 
building momentum inside the Panamenista party and pulling 
away rapidly from Vallarino. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
If Varela Wins, UP Will Join with Martinelli 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) "If Varela wins the Panamenista presidential 
nomination, then the next day Patriotic Union (UP) will form 
an alliance with Martinelli," UP VP Jose Raul Mulino told 
POLCOUNS after discussing the latest polling data.  Mulino, 
who said that prior to his conversation with POLCOUNS he was 
not aware of the results of the latest Dichter and Neira and 
CID/Gallup polls, was not surprised that Herrera had slipped, 
was mildly surprise that Navarro had made up so much ground, 
and was very surprised that Varela was pulling away so 
strongly from Vallarino.  Mulino reiterated that he led the 
UP faction that supported an alliance with Vallarino, but 
added, "Vallarino is the best prepared to take on Balbina, 
the best prepared to be president.  Varela though is too 
immature and ill-prepared for a tough fight with Balbina and 
lacks presidential stature."  Asserting that Balbina was 
dangerous, Mulino explained that ultimately he would have to 
support the strongest candidate against Balbina.  "If the 
opposition choices are between Varela and Martinelli, then 
I'll go with Martinelli." 
 
¶9.  (C) Mulino wants the opposition to win very badly and 
strongly believes that Balbina was a significant threat. 
"This lady shot at me in San Miguelito.  I had to hide under 
a bridge.  People have not forgotten how radical and 
dangerous she is."  Nonetheless, Herrera would be the ideal 
PRD candidate for the opposition to confront:  "We can remind 
people of her past and draw simple, stark contrasts with her." 
 
¶10. (C)  Bio note:  Mulino is not in good health.  He said 
that he was still recovering from the back surgery he had 
about three months ago and that he had had to be re-admitted 
to intensive care when he developed a dangerous thrombosis. 
Complaining that he had to take seven pills every night and 
still suffered significant back pain, Mulino said he was only 
now able to begin mild exercise, for example, walking for 
thirty minutes.  Mulino said he was at high risk for 
"arterial blockages" and therefore was taking potent blood 
thinners, thinners that made it difficult to address any 
minor bleeding such as bleeding associated with dental 
check-ups, blood tests, or minor cuts.  "I'm trying to reduce 
the stress in my life.  If I get stressed, I simply stop 
doing what ever stresses me.  I try to live in the here and 
now and to enjoy life more."  Mulino added that he did not 
have any aspirations to seek an elected office and did not 
seek any ministerial or other high-level government positions. 
 
¶11. (C) Comment:  POLCOUNS was struck by how quickly this 
Vallarino supporter was prepared to shift to backing 
Martinelli should Varela win the Panamenista presidential 
nomination.  Reportedly, Mulino wrote an early draft of 
Vallarino's campaign launch speech.  Mulino was very 
conscious of the fact that what UP does -- that is who it 
backs -- in the May 2009 elections would probably be the most 
thing for the next 25 years of this new party. If UP and 
MOLIRENA ally themselves with CD, the Panamenista Party -- a 
party that lays claim to the top of any opposition ticket -- 
would be isolated in the opposition and be stripped of 
traditional allies. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Surprise, Surprise: Martinelli is Going to Run 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) To nobody's surprise, CD Party President Ricardo 
Martinelli threw his hat into the ring to run for president 
at a campaign launch event on May 18.  Promising greater 
access to opportunity for all Panamanians -- not just PRD 
members or Panamenista party members or the wealthy -- 
Martinelli took advantage of this campaign launch to 
re-introduce himself and to develop some basic message for 
his campaign: 
 
-- Panama is at a historic moment and must take advantage of 
this opportunity that may never return. -- Noting that Panama 
was experiencing phenomenal economic growth, Martinelli 
acknowledged that many Panamanians felt that these newfound 
riches were not reaching them.  "They are not reaching the 
PRD bases.  They are not reaching the bases of the opposition 
parties.  They are not reaching independent Panamanians.  The 
riches are staying in the pockets of those who govern. "My 
candidacy and that of Democratic Change is more than a 
political proposal.  It is a movement that aims to break with 
the continuity of this phenomenon and to change this 
country."  The riches of Panama needed to be shared with all 
Panamanians regardless of political affiliation or social 
status.  "We need to act now because this golden opportunity 
may be the only opportunity that Panama will get." 
 
-- Panama needs to avoid populist answers. -- "One does not 
need to look far to see that danger that approaches.  It is 
sufficient to observe what has happened in our brother 
country, Venezuela."  Drawing a direct parallel, Martinelli 
said that Venezuela some ten years ago also had the kind of 
golden opportunity enjoyed by Panama today, "but instead of 
electing somebody who understood the economy, they elected a 
man named Hugo Chavez."  Today, Venezuela was perched on the 
edge of "an economic abyss."  "I am not going to let that 
happen to Panama." 
 
-- It is time to look to new political alternatives (read: 
Martinelli). -- For the 32 years that the PRD had been in 
power, Martinelli asserted, the PRD had not solved Panama's 
problems:  40 percent of Panamanians continued to be poor, 
the riches did not reach those who need them, insecurity had 
increased, prices had increased, the cost of living had 
risen, and corruption continued.  "The leadership of the PRD 
represents continuity and with continuity there cannot be 
change."  Shifting and broadening his attacks, Martinelli 
then took on "traditional governments that have led Panama 
for the past 40 years."  "What have they done over the past 
40 years to eliminate poverty," he asked.  "We need somebody 
different who will fight for all Panamanians so that 
opportunities reach those most in need, so that all 
Panamanians benefit from progress without regard for their 
political affiliation." 
 
-- "I've created jobs." -- Unlike his political challengers, 
Martinelli said that he had created jobs his entire life.  He 
explained that every since he was young he had worked hard 
and worked long hours, starting when he was very young 
polishing shoes and selling newspapers.  He said he joined 
the hardware story 99 -- what would become Super99, his 
supermarket chain -- when it was nearly bankrupt.  Through 
hard work his business grew until all was lost in looting in 
December 1989 in the wake of the U.S. invasion.  Not giving 
up, Martinelli said he rebuilt his businesses into the 
successes that that were today. 
 
¶13. (C) Comment: In his drive for Panama's presidency, 
Martinelli has laid out a basic message:  don't lose this 
opportunity; avoid populist adventurism (read: Herrera); look 
to new political alternatives; I'll spread opportunity; I 
have the experience to bring that opportunity to you.  Though 
his campaign put on a very professional event, Martinelli's 
own performance fell short.  He plowed through his speech, 
not allowing his 4,000-person strong crowd to join in by 
failing to pause for his applause lines, for example.  Clad 
only in a campaign golf shirt and jeans, Martinelli sought to 
portray an every-man image.  Popular reggaeton musician DJ 
Black and jazz musician Roberto Blades (brother of jazz 
musician and Torrijos' Minister of Tourism Ruben Blades), 
warmed up crowd with live music, including several songs 
prepared for the campaign.  On May 16, Martinelli political 
advisor Jimmy Papadimitriu told POLCOUNS that Martinelli had 
hoped to announce an alliance with MOLIRENA, an alliance that 
was derailed by Varela.  Some MOLIRENA leaders  (e.g., 
Wigberto Quintero) were on hand.  According to Papadimitriu, 
Varela threatened Martinelli that he would go negative on 
Martinelli if Martinelli "prematurely" announced an alliance. 
 Martinelli warned Varela that if Varela went negative, 
Martinelli would take off the gloves and go after Varela and 
would not spare any money in the effort.  While he is 
positioning himself as the new alternative, Martinelli will 
need to come to terms with the relationship he has cultivated 
with Varela deciding whether to try to co-opt or compete 
against Varela as well as the PRD. 
EATON