VZCZCXRO4596
OO RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCI #0160/01 1490642
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 280642Z MAY 08
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2006
INFO RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 0590
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 0575
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2453
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1889
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 0879
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 0874
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000160 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAGR EIND IN
SUBJECT: CPM LOSES GROUND IN LOCAL ELECTIONS DUE TO THEIR VIOLENT 
WAYS 
 
REF: KOLKATA 148 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:   West Bengal's ruling Communist Party of 
India - Marxist (CPM) led Left Front suffered a serious setback 
in the local level "Panchayat" elections in the state.  The 
CPM's control was diminished at all three levels of the 
Panchayat structure.  While land acquisition for industry 
remained a cause for its poor showing, the CPM's use of violence 
and thuggish tactics alienated many of their past supporters 
including their traditional Muslim base and was the more 
significant cause of their defeat.  The CPM's losses also 
indicate fissures among the Left Front.  In the coming weeks, 
the opposition Trinamul Congress (TMC) will have to flesh out an 
alternative platform if it wants to capitalize on its surprising 
success.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Panchayat system is divided into three broad 
categories: the District Level (Zilla Parishad), the Block Level 
(Panchayat Samiti), and the Village Level (Gram Panchayat).  In 
West Bengal, there were 17 Zilla Parishads, 329 Panchayat 
Samities, and 3,220 Gram Panchayats (over 41,000 seats) at stake 
in this year's election.  The TMC, unable to win even one 
district council five years ago, made inroads into the CPM's 
political base and for the first time won two district councils 
-- East Midnapore and South 24-Parganas -- leaving the Left 
Front/CPM in control of 13 out of 17 districts.  The Left Front 
and CPM's share of the block level Panchayat Samitis was down 
nearly 30 percent.   At the Gram Panchayat level, the CPM and 
Left Front losses there appear to be close to 50 percent.  The 
Statesman newspaper supplied the following 2008 results (numbers 
in parentheses show 2003 figures for comparison). 
 
                Districts               Blocks          Villages 
 
Left            13(15)          187(285)                1585(2303) 
 
Opposition      4               89              1498(897) 
 
Tie/Hung                                                137(20) 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) TMC supporters were as equally surprised at their 
victories as the Left Front.  The TMC, led by the firebrand 
politician Mamata Banerjee, had led the protests in 2007 against 
the GOWB's abortive bid to acquire land for setting up a 
chemical hub in East Midnapore's Nandigram.  The TMC made a 
clean sweep of the seats in the area.  East Midnapore and South 
24-Parganas are also heavily dominated by Muslim voters who 
usually vote for the CPM.  The TMC victory in these districts 
indicates Muslims also switched their alliance in favor of the 
TMC.  In addition, the TMC won in Singur, where it had mobilized 
people against land acquisition for Tata Motors' small car 
factory earlier, though it failed to stretch its victory to the 
rest of the district which was won by the Left Front. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The Muslim community vote may have been affected by 
fears of losing land, but distaste for the CPM's 
heavy-handedness is a more likely cause for its support of the 
TMC.  The CPM's use of force and violence, in Nandigram in 
particular, did not sit well with locals.  In Singur, there had 
been continued dissatisfaction about the compensation and 
rehabilitation package offered by the GOWB.  Although TMC 
leaders at first claimed they would shutdown the Tata project in 
Singur, they are already backing away from such rhetoric, 
indicating that the industrialization drive in West Bengal may 
still have legs. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The CPM's poor showing may also be an initial indicator 
of small cracks within the Left Front coalition.  Some of the 
small Left Front parties had been chafing under the CPM's 
domination of the coalition, particularly at the local level. 
Working President of the West Bengal State Congress Committee 
Pradip Bhattacharya told ConGen that prior to the local body 
elections, the Congress Party had approached some of the CPM's 
smaller Left Front partners, the Revolutionary Socialist Party 
(RSP) and Forward Bloc (FB), but was unable to convince them to 
leave the Left Front.  The media reported that the Left Front 
was divided over Nandigram and Singur, and during the election 
several clashes between the workers of CPM and the RSP took 
place leading to several deaths (reftel).  Bhattacharaya felt 
that the at the grassroots level Left party workers and the 
Opposition sometimes joined hands on common issues, but that 
 
KOLKATA 00000160  002 OF 002 
 
 
there was discord among the higher level leaders of the parties 
that prevented new coalitions from forming permanently. 
 
¶6.  (U) For its part, the CPM blamed its defeat on the publicity 
campaign launched by opposition parties.  CPM Party spokesman 
Shyamal Chakraborty admitted to the media that the CPM had 
failed to convince the people about the need for 
industrialization and its government's good intentions, but that 
the party was unable to reach out to the masses with its 
industrialization message before the opposition succeeded in 
"deceiving" voters.  Since the election Chakraborty, with the 
backing or party hardliners, has been elevated to the CPM's 
State Secretariat. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment:  The CPM's violent tactics, particularly in 
Nandigram and Singur, played a significant role in their losses 
in these elections.  Tellingly, their aggressiveness included 
battles with their Left Front partners (four RSP workers were 
killed during clashes with CPM cadres during the voting).  As 
well, there was growing public dissatisfaction over the public 
distribution system and corruption at the local level.  As a 
result, the TMC found itself unexpectedly victorious, and is now 
faced with the task of showing that it offers an alternative to 
the CPM.  Chief Minister Bhattacharjee will also have to face 
criticism from some WB leaders and the hardliners in the CPM's 
Central Committee, who may now try to tie his hands, and his 
industrialization plans, even more.  The CPM is likely to 
tighten up its ranks and retreat to its traditional ideological 
posture, at the cost of slowing down the industrialization drive 
in West Bengal.  The TMC unfortunately does not appear to have 
an alternative, viable platform in place that could take real 
advantage of this sudden chink in the CPM's armor. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment continued:  As indicated by the postponement 
of this week's talks between the UPA and the Left on the civil 
nuclear deal, the CPM's losses in W. Bengal combined with 
Congress' recent drubbing in Karnataka will put the brakes on 
resolving pressing national issues, as both parties take stock 
of the election results.  It will take time before it becomes 
clear whether the CPM's losses in the local elections were 
simply a response to its heavy-handedness in Nandigram and 
Singur or whether the poor CPM showing has deeper roots and 
signals the beginning of a more profound shift in West Bengal 
electorate's view of and receptivity to the CPM. 
JARDINE