VZCZCXRO3552
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0807/01 1480756
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 270756Z MAY 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0920
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0065
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0227
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 0072
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 0233

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KHARTOUM 000807 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, PRM, AF SE WILLIAMSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SP, USAID/W DCHA SUDAN 
NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, AND FAS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
NAIROBI FOR SFO 
NSC FOR PMARCHAM, MMAGAN, AND BPITTMAN 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
NEW YORK FOR FSHANKS 
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG 
 
AIDAC 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI UN SU
SUBJECT: USAID ASSESSMENT OF ABYEI IDPS IN AGOK 
 
REF:  KHARTOUM 0540 
 
KHARTOUM 00000807  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. Begin Summary:  On May 24, a USAID team including officers from 
USAID's Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) and Office of U.S. 
Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) conducted a one-day 
assessment of the humanitarian situation in and around Agok in 
southern Abyei Area.  The Agok area is currently hosting an 
estimated 50,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Abyei who 
fled fighting beginning May 14.  The USAID team found that the 
situation of the IDPs is precarious due to the rapidity with which 
they fled, an unpredictable security situation, and the encroaching 
rainy season.  UN agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) 
have rapidly responded to the immediate humanitarian needs, 
providing three-day food rations and some relief items, and working 
to transport sufficient quantities of food and relief items to Agok 
for distribution in the coming days.  USAID partners -- Mercy Corps, 
Save the Children (SC/US), PACT, GOAL, the UN Resident Coordinator's 
Office (UN/RCO), and UN World Food Program (WFP) -- are all on the 
ground in Agok and providing emergency response assistance to the 
IDP population.  End Summary. 
 
IDPs and Host Communities 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  According to the UN/RCO, an estimated 50,000 people have fled 
fighting in Abyei town and are gathered in 18 villages south of 
Abyei and the River Kiir in the Agok area.  At the onset of the 
crisis, the UN activated its contingency plan, which had factored in 
both the rapid displacement of as many as 75,000 people fleeing to 
the south and the blockage of critical northern supply routes to the 
North.  The UN agencies, along with the local government, have 
agreed on five distribution sites in the area, in order to better 
organize relief operations while ensuring coverage to at least 80 
percent of the IDPs.  On May 25, humanitarian agencies in Agok 
organized a headcount of the entire IDP and host community 
population, which will provide a more accurate estimate of numbers 
displaced and the assistance required. 
 
¶3. Prior to the recent fighting, Abyei town and the surrounding area 
was estimated to have 100,000 people residing there.  Approximately 
70,000 of these are returnees who came from the north since the 
signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), after many years 
of displacement, including 10,000 who arrived in March and early 
April, just before the census.  The remaining 30,000 people were 
residents who never left Abyei during the war.  Many returnees 
depended heavily on urban livelihoods.  The recent returnees had not 
had a chance to establish livelihoods or households in Abyei before 
fighting displaced them to the Agok area.  According to the UN/RCO, 
5,000 Twic Dinka who fled violence in Southern Kordofan State and 
arrived in Abyei in early 2008 were the most vulnerable group in 
Abyei before this recent crisis.  Most Twic Dinka have returned to 
their home areas in Twic County, bordering Abyei Area to the 
southwest.  (Note:  Reporting on the USAID team's trip to Northern 
Bahr el Ghazal and Warrab states, including Twic County, will follow 
septel. End note.) 
 
¶4. The USAID team drove along the main roads near Agok and observed 
the roads crowded with families carrying items, including suitcases, 
bags of food, and small household items.  Along the road the team 
observed that families have gathered their household items under 
trees and are attempting to set up shelters with plastic sheeting 
distributed by relief agencies.  According to relief workers, many 
Abyei IDP families have found family or friends to stay with in the 
Agok area.  Crowding in the host community tukals (huts) is clearly 
visible. 
 
¶5. At Abatok, one of the original five IDP distribution sites, the 
team noted that lack of grinding mills had created long lines of 
people waiting to grind the sorghum distributed in the food ration. 
OFDA funds the GOAL health unit which is directly across from this 
IDP gathering area.  The clinic is functioning on its regular 
 
KHARTOUM 00000807  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
schedule, and GOAL is working to resupply medicines to its rural 
clinics before the rains impede access.  GOAL also operates a clinic 
near Agok town, which the USAID team visited and noted that the 
clinic's caseload now includes IDPs.   The GOAL area coordinator 
informed the team that they are monitoring the health situation and, 
so far, the clinics operating in IDP areas have not reported an 
uptick in consultations.  (Note:  the team expects this situation to 
change, as the still fluid population movements stabilize and IDPs 
'settle' in an area for a longer period of time.  End note.) 
 
¶6. At the IDP site at Madingjok-Thiang, an OFDA-funded Mercy Corps 
school that is not fully constructed is now serving as a shelter for 
IDPs.  The USAID team met with several IDP families and surveyed the 
households' assets.  Many families here were preparing sorghum from 
the food distribution and had cooking pots and other small household 
items.  Many IDP families observed at this site, and along the road, 
had managed to carry baby goats with them as they fled.  Several 
groups of children at this site were making clay/mud statues, 
including figures of commanders, tanks, trucks, and helicopters. 
Most of the IDPs observed by the team are women and children. 
 
¶7. The UN/RCO reported that Abyei IDP families have reported 80 
children missing.  At least 10 children have been reunited with 
their families through the efforts of the UN Children's Fund 
(UNICEF) and SC/US. 
 
¶8.  Malnutrition is suspected to be high among the IDPs.  According 
to the UN/RCO, 20 percent global acute malnutrition (GAM) is not 
unusual for the Abyei area at this time of year, as people's food 
stocks run low and the rains bring water-related illness, such as 
malaria and cholera.  Agencies expect the GAM is higher, perhaps 
significantly, among the IDPs.  Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) plans 
to conduct a nutrition survey in the coming week to identify trends 
in malnutrition among the displaced population.  MSF is also 
establishing a therapeutic feeding center in Agok to treat severely 
malnourished cases. 
 
Food Aid 
-------- 
 
¶9.  Earlier in the week, WFP, along with its NGO partners, 
distributed three-day emergency rations to the IDPs and host 
community, as a stop-gap measure until IDPs settle in an area and 
can be counted.  Upon completion of the headcount on May 25, WFP 
will organize a 15-day distribution of a full-ration (ie 2100 
kilocalories/person/day) to both the IDPs and host community, which 
was already deemed to be in need of increased food assistance this 
year due to last year's severe flooding.  WFP is mobilizing staff 
and transport assets from around the region, including as far as 
from Juba and Wau, to assist in this operation. 1000 MT of 
commodities intended for Bentiu in Unity State is being diverted to 
Agok, though delivery there has not been received as yet.  With 
transport routes from the north either closed or insecure, 
effectively cutting off resupply from WFP's main hub in El Obeid, 
and the rains beginning to cut off areas in the south, WFP will need 
to manage the complex logistics extremely effectively.  Already WFP 
is mobilizing to send additional commodities up to this area from 
its Mombasa pipeline, which has not been necessary for the past two 
years due to more effective and cost-efficient transport options 
from the north. 
 
¶10.  It remains to be seen what the longer-term food assistance 
response will look like, given the uncertainty of the situation at 
this point.  Without a clear picture of the duration of the 
displacement, it is difficult to predict the amount and type of food 
assistance needed.  What is clear, however, is that people's 
livelihoods have been disrupted, most probably for a significant 
period of time; a large percentage of the IDPs can not easily adapt 
to farming, having lived in urban areas much or most of their lives; 
and that the host community is already in a fragile food security 
situation themselves.  (Note:  In addition, it appears there will 
 
KHARTOUM 00000807  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
likely be movement of IDPs further away from Abyei and Agok, as this 
population is extremely nervous about the prospect of continued 
fighting as well as the threat lingering in their minds of the 
return of the Antonov.  WFP is considering bolstering its storage 
capacity in areas like Turalei and Wunrok in Twic County for this 
reason. End note). 
 
 
Humanitarian Response 
--------------------- 
 
¶11.  The USAID team met with the UN coordination team on site in 
Agok.  The team reported that most sectors are covered and 
sufficient relief items are en route or able to be dispatched as 
needed.  The May 25 headcount will enable the UN to establish a 
realistic planning figure for food and NFIs.  The agencies are 
currently planning a three-stage response and are focusing on 
meeting the immediate emergency needs of the Abyei IDPs. 
 
--IMMEDIATE RESPONSE: In the next two weeks, agencies aim to provide 
a 15-day food ration to both IDPs and host families, and NFI kits to 
IDPs.  At the time of the USAID team's visit, the UN coordination 
team reported that it was not possible to plan for a longer range 
response because it remained uncertain if the IDPs would continue 
moving south, particularly if Sudanese military airplanes circle 
again over IDP sites and terrorize the population.  (Note:  UN and 
NGO staff on the ground in Agok reported witnessing an Antonov drop 
ordnance near the River Kiir on May 19.  Representatives from the 
UN, NGOs, and the local authorities told the USAID team that the 
IDPs were extremely scared by the circling of the Antonov.  End 
Note.)  Further military aircraft activity could drive the IDPs 
further south.  Agencies expressed concern that relief structures, 
such as the white WFP rubbhall stores, could become targets and put 
the population at risk of aerial attack. 
 
--MEDIUM-TERM RESPONSE:  As additional information on the security 
situation and IDP intentions is gained, the organizations will 
address food security, education, sanitation, protection, nutrition, 
and water needs through longer-term solutions.  The USAID team noted 
that provision of seeds and agricultural tools will be essential to 
assist the population in the medium term, if it becomes clear that 
IDPs will remain in their current locations, which are suitable for 
farming and gardening.  Investing in public latrines and water 
points will be needed to prevent the deterioration in the health of 
the population. 
 
--LONG-TERM RESPONSE:  USAID has received several reports that 
indicate Abyei town is nearly destroyed.  Many USAID partner 
compounds have either been destroyed, occupied, or looted.  In 
addition, many USAID-funded projects in Abyei are assumed to be 
damaged or destroyed, including water points, community 
infrastructure projects, and health facilities.  If and when IDPs 
can return to Abyei, NGOs and UN agencies will have to rebuild 
compounds and restart programming from scratch.  Looking forward to 
this possibility, the UN/RCO is advocating for a proper town 
planning of Abyei to take place before reconstruction begins. 
 
Constraints 
----------- 
 
¶12. The UN coordination team in Agok reported that the current major 
constraint to the humanitarian operation is trucking capacity to 
transport relief items from Juba and Wau to Agok and within the Agok 
area to distribution sites.  In addition, the UN team reported a 
limited supply of fuel in Agok.  Supply routes from the north have 
been closed by insecurity along the border areas, and at present, 
the UN is planning to supply the Agok operation from Juba.  WFP 
reports it is talking with transporters that are already working on 
pre-positioning food throughout Southern Sudan to see if it might be 
possible for them to increase their deliveries.  Another option 
would be for these contracted private transporters to take over the 
 
KHARTOUM 00000807  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
deliveries that WFP-owned trucks are now doing, in order to free 
them up for the Abyei response.  WFP noted that transporters from 
the north, including the drivers of the IOM trucks that delivered 
NFI items to Agok recently, are extremely hesitant to be working in 
this area right now, and that some of them have actually been 
threatened, though no reports of physical harm have been received. 
 
 
USAID Assistance 
---------------- 
 
¶13. Mercy Corps, GOAL, PACT, and SC/US are all involved in the 
relief effort for Abyei IDPs.  All of these NGOs are current 
USAID/OFDA partners that had ongoing programs in Abyei and Agok. 
GOAL continues to operate the health facilities south of the River 
Kiir and has assigned health care staff to assist with the emergency 
medical efforts in Agok and Turalei in Twic County.  PACT is 
drilling 17 new boreholes in the area with USAID/OFDA funding and 
reported that all are on schedule to be finished in the coming 
weeks.  Four of the new boreholes have been relocated to serve the 
needs of the IDPs.  SC/US is partnering with WFP on the food 
distribution and is also providing NFI items, and implementing child 
protection activities.  Mercy Corps and a local NGO had the only 
compounds in Agok.  Both compounds are currently serving as 
operational and residential bases from which the UN and other relief 
organizations manage their response.  Mercy Corps trucks, vehicles, 
fuel, and staff (many of which are displaced local staff from Abyei 
themselves) are supporting the logistics of the Abyei IDP response. 
WFP, USAID/FFP's main partner in Southern Sudan, is leading the 
transport and distribution of food aid. 
 
Comment 
-------- 
 
¶14. The full impact of the Abyei crisis will not be known until the 
risk of further conflict dissipates or escalates.  This is already 
the worst humanitarian situation in Southern Sudan since the CPA was 
signed.  Humanitarian agencies are carefully planning flexible 
response modalities, in case another round of fighting here or in 
other tense border areas causes another wave of displacement. 
Relief agencies have responded quickly and effectively to this 
crisis.  However, stocks of relief supplies, as well as emergency 
response funding, have been depleted in the south, leaving agencies 
unable to respond rapidly to another major emergency. 
 
¶15. One seasoned aid worker, who was in Southern Sudan during the 
war and who knows the Three Areas well, said that if conflict starts 
again in Abyei, it could lead to a wider conflict in northern Sudan. 
 Peace is fragile in the Nuba Mountains, southern Blue Nile State, 
and eastern Sudan where the CPA did not address the underlying 
causes of the 1983-2005 civil war.  Aid workers described to the 
USAID team the scenarios they were preparing to respond to including 
short-term, long-term, and a return to war.  A local official told 
the USAID team that they were managing the emergency response while 
hoping for a political solution, but stated that, "if politics don't 
work, maybe military will." 
 
The US Embassy will continue to push for a political solution to the 
crisis and work to de-escalate political tensions between the two 
parties involved.  The US Embassy will also push for UNMIS to assist 
in establishing a humanitarian supply cooridor from El Obeid and 
Kadugli to Benitu to ensure that needed relief items can reach Agok 
quickly.  The US commends the rapid response of the UN and NGOs. 
 
POWERS