VZCZCXRO7747
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0773/01 1401521
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 191521Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0873
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000773 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG 
NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM SU
SUBJECT: SPLM NATIONAL CONVENTION: THE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES 
 
¶1. (SBU) The SPLM National Convention recessed abruptly on May 17 to 
allow for a six-hour extraordinary session of the Interim National 
Council.  The future of Dr. Riek Machar - and the embattled GOSS 
Vice President's legacy of untrustworthiness and brutality within 
the South - brought decisions on the SPLM's executive structure to a 
near stand-still.  The leadership body was reconstituted one day 
after its formal dissolution in order to pacify the rank and file 
delegates gripped by rumors that Machar's ouster from the party 
leadership would push him to foment violence among his fellow-ethnic 
Nuer that would divide and destabilize the region.  Intra-party 
elections, scheduled to start May 18, have been delayed. 
 
¶2. (SBU) While a significant number of SPLM party officials, 
including GOSS Regional Cooperation Minister Benjamin, GOSS 
Representative to the U.S. Ezekiel Gatkuouth, and Presidential 
Affairs Minister Luka Biong Deng, have gone out of their way to 
downplay its relevance to USG officials, the schism over the "vice 
chairman question" continues to grow.  The May 12 INC saw Kiir 
supporters win outright the debate on the party's draft 
constitution, which held there would be only one vice chairman. 
Less than one hour after it convened, Mansour Khalid told poloffs 
that the leadership body was equally divided, despite a continued 
push by party chairman Salva Kiir Mayardit that "the time for change 
is now." 
 
¶3.  (SBU) GNU Humanitarian Affairs Minister Haroun Run Lual told 
poloffs May 17 that Machar was called upon to publicly defend his 
relationship with ex-SSDF commander Paulino Matiep and respond to 
rumors about clandestine meetings with Nuer officials.  Machar 
dismissed both as nonsense.  Kiir informed the assembled leadership 
that Matiep had told him that he was in Unity State to consult with 
traditional healers before traveling to America for additional 
medical treatment.  Matiep told a similar story to CG Juba the week 
of May 12. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Crafting a compromise that meshed democratic practices with 
the status quo, the May 17 INC revised its earlier decision on the 
party's draft constitution, opting to keep the SPLM's current vice 
chairman structure.  All three of the Vice Chairmen shall be 
elected, but ranked according to respective vote totals.  Despite 
pressure from his state delegates, current Vice Chairman and Blue 
Nile State Governor told CG Juba May 18 that he has "zero interest" 
in remaining in his position.  Observers argue that Kiir will have 
to work to establish whom should fill the slot in order to prevent 
Machar from filling it with his own candidate, as he did during the 
Unity State SPLM Congress.  Operating assumptions in Juba are that 
Kiir's preferred candidate -- Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly 
Speaker James Wani Igga -- will win the top slot, with Machar as a 
close -- and perhaps "stabilizing" -- second. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Rather than end intra-party speculation about forthcoming 
leadership changes, Juba is now transfixed by additional intrigue. 
The INC used the "any other business" agenda point to reverse itself 
on the membership ceiling for the National Liberation Council (NLC), 
upping the total from 250 to 270.  While the NLC is not expected to 
meet more than once a year (if at all) the democratically-elected 
body is charged with electing the Secretary General.  With one-third 
of the elected seats "set-asides" for SPLM Northern Sector 
representatives, and credible reports by many (including fellow 
Deputy Secretary Anne Itto) alleging that Deputy Secretary Yasir 
Arman manipulated final delegate selection in the sector, diplomatic 
corps observers believe the SPLM has bought breathing space for a 
dark-horse candidate.  Despite his emphatic denials that he would 
accept the position, the popular push at the moment is for the 
retention of SG Pagan Amum. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) According to multiple sources, SG Amum sustained five 
solid minutes of applause following his status report on the party 
during the convention's May 16 session.  SPLM Youth-wing leader told 
CG Juba May 17 that he intended push the youth vote to Amum, and was 
meeting with Shilluk elders and party heavy-weights such as James 
Kok and Yasir Arman on the issue.  While Haroun told poloffs that 
Arman and Amum have feuded in the past, Arman recognizes the value 
of Amum's presence in an NCP/SPLM elections struggle as considerable 
more valuable than that of Taban Deng Gai.  Gai appears to have 
reached the same conclusion, reportedly consulting with Amum before 
accepting Kiir's May 11 anointment to be future SG. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: The verdict still isn't in on Pagan Amum's futre 
in he party following the convention.  Though he is viewed by many 
as overly emotional and outspoken, most SPLM members acknowledge his 
strengths as a party strategist and don't want to see him leave his 
post as Cabinet Affairs Minister in the GNU (as he has threatened to 
do if removed as Secretary General).  Northern members of the SPLM 
especially support Amum's adherence to Garang's vision of unity. 
One of the ironies of the first few days of the convention was that 
 
KHARTOUM 00000773  002 OF 002 
 
 
while the formal convention convened with a message of national 
unity to delegates from the entirety of Sudan, southerners are 
negotiating for the top spots in the party in order to retain tribal 
unity in the South with an eye on the referendum in 2011. 
 
FERNANDEZ