VZCZCXRO6958
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0747/01 1371109
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161109Z MAY 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0830
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000747 
 
DEPT A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C, AF/E 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS PHUM KDEM SU
SUBJECT: DRAFT SPLM CONSTITUTION SETS STAGE FOR CONVENTION DYNAMICS 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 728 
 
¶1. (SBU) The SPLM's 119-member Interim National Council (INC) held 
its final session May 12-13 in a marathon push to finalize 
transformative foundational documents for the SPLM on the eve of the 
party's second national convention. Before its dissolution (the INC 
will be replaced by a 250-member National Liberation Council) the 
INC effected critical changes in two documents - the party's 
manifesto and constitution - in an effort to streamline the party's 
executive structures.  This has sparked fierce debate within the 
party leadership, and has resulted in Pagan Amum's departure from 
the SPLM's senior-most ranks (reftel) and may have set the stage for 
Riek Machar's ouster from the party' senior ranks and perhaps even 
from the Government of Southern Sudan itself. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The draft SPLM Constitution will streamline the party's 
executive structure for the first time in 14 years.  Changes to the 
party's top positions, endorsed by the INC but subject to the vote 
of convention delegates, is as follows: one elected SPLM chairman, 
one elected vice chairman, one elected secretary general, two 
appointed deputy secretary generals, an appointed national 
treasurer, and six assistants to the Secretary General.  Current 
SPLM Chairman Salva Kiir is the presumptive winner of the party 
chairman race, with the entirety of the Bahr el Ghazal and Equatoria 
regions as well as Jonglei state pledging their votes to him in 
advance. 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to party insiders, Kiir's stated preference for 
the single vice chairman slot (reduced from the current three vice 
chairmen positions per the INC) is Southern Sudan Legislative 
Assembly Speaker and Equatorian James Wani Igga.  One of the three 
current vice chairmen, Blue Nile Governor Malik Agar, has told us 
that he does not want to remain in the position and has called for 
the Northern Sector's 500 delegates to back Igga's candidacy.  The 
move to a single vice chairman is likely to sideline the third 
current vice chairman, GOSS Vice President Riek Machar, fueling 
speculation that Machar may stand against Kiir for the party 
chairmanship.  While some Sudanese media on May 15 announced that 
Nhial Deng Nhial would also stand against Kiir, in a conversation 
with Acting CG May 9 Nhial claimed he had no interest in remaining 
politically-engaged in the SPLM, beyond participating in the 
National Liberation Council, preferring instead to open a private 
law practice in Juba.  Nhial returned to Sudan only recently from 
self-imposed exile in Scotland. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ancillary fallout from the consolidation of available vice 
chairman slots has impacted the decision-making behind who will - or 
should - become the party's next Secretary General (SG).  Current SG 
Pagan Amun has refused to compete for the position and Unity State 
Governor Taban Deng Gai appears to be the sole candidate for the 
position, according to party leadership and other delegates gathered 
here in Juba.  Kiir reportedly asked Upper Nile SPLM member John Luk 
Jok if he wanted the position, but he apparently declined the offer. 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Convention will also transform the Interim Political 
Bureau into a full "Political Bureau," and reduce its size from its 
present 37 members to 21 - with quotas for five northern 
representatives and five women.  The Political Bureau will remain 
the party's most instrumental executive body, and these 21 members 
will shape the SPLM's vision and actions going forward.  In 
addition, the Political Bureau must approve the Chairman's 
selections for the Northern Sector and Southern Sector Deputy 
Se-c-retary Generals.  The INC will be replaced by a 250-member 
National Liberation Council (NLC), envisioned as the "grand 
parliament of the party." The NLC has authority to approve the six 
programmatic assistants to the Secretary General. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Current SPLM Deputy SG Abdelaziz el Helou told Acting CG he 
would prefer to stand down from the position in order to concentrate 
on the party's organization and leadership in Southern Kordofan 
(where he is from) although he is prepared to serve in any capacity 
at "the request of the people."  Deputy Secretary General Yasir 
Arman has similarly evinced a degree of ambivalence about his 
position within the party leadership, but has told us he remains 
committed to serving in any role that will benefit the party.  By 
contrast, Southern Sector Deputy Secretary General Anne Itto 
actively lobbied INC members to keep her position during the INC's 
fifty-plus hours of meetings before the start of the convention. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: Although it is unlikely to succeed, a challenge by 
Machar against Kiir for the position of SPLM Chairman bears close 
scrutiny.  Moreover, there is likely to be fierce competition for 
the 21 "streamlined" Political Bureau seats.  Although we detected a 
degree of ambivalence among several party heavy-weights such as 
Agar, Nhial, and Arman, this may in part reflect an effort on their 
part to downplay expectations - and perhaps a desire to be courted - 
which is only natural at the start of the convention when the 
 
KHARTOUM 00000747  002 OF 002 
 
 
outcome remains difficult to predict.  The standing in the party 
following the convention of Arman and other northerners may signal 
the extent to which the SPLM remains nationally-oriented and loyal 
to John Garang's "New Sudan" vision, or whether it will take on a 
more secessionist bent.  While most southerners assume the South 
with secede in 2011, standing before SPLM delegates from the 
entirety of Sudan at the opening of the convention May 15, Chairman 
Kiir's keynote speech was true to the national vision of the party, 
with a heavy emphasis on democratic transformation in all of Sudan 
and on CPA implementation. 
 
FERNANDEZ