VZCZCXRO7425
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0704/01 1281326
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071326Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0758
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0201
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000704 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, SE WILLIAMSON, PRM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM KPKO SOCI UNSC SU
SUBJECT: IDPS FACE CHALLENGES ON ISSUE OF RETURN 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The issue of whether to remain in camps or return 
to their homelands is one that internally displaced persons (IDPs) 
continue to struggle with as the conflict in Darfur stretches into 
its fifth year.  Fresh displacements highlight the dangers of 
returning too soon, however even humanitarian workers agree that 
some areas are secure enough for families to move back.  In a recent 
series of meetings, international and local NGOs discussed 
conditions for returns and concerns for the future. END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
Discussion of Returns Tapers 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Wariara Mbugua, Chief of UNAMID Civil Affairs, told 
fieldoff that while it used to arise on a daily basis, the issue of 
returns had slowly dropped from the public discourse.  IOM 
(International Organization for Migration) staff noted that 
discussions in the camps had become highly politicized, although it 
was unclear whether the growing divisions within IDP groups were 
truly ideological or rather a result of pressure from umdas who were 
bribed by the government to promote returns.  With discussion at a 
minimum, no one believed that returns were actually occurring, 
despite a recent Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) press release 
suggesting that 4000 IDPs were returning to their lands in North 
Darfur (reftel). 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
New Arrivals Highlight Dwindling Motivation to Return 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The recent influx of an estimated 9500 IDPs to Zam Zam camp 
outside El Fasher in North Darfur would appear to suggest that 
conditions are not yet ripe for IDPs to consider returning to their 
lands.  However, OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of 
Humanitarian Affairs) suspects that at least some members of this 
group, most of whom presented themselves at the camp with no rations 
card (the most important document for a Darfuri IDP and proof of 
prior food aid registration), are not exactly who they say they are. 
 However, unraveling their true identity and motives for lying may 
be impossible.  (Note: OCHA, IOM and WFP conduct verification 
activities in an attempt to discourage migration of villagers to 
camps for better services, and to avoid providing services to 
voluntarily internally displaced Persons. End Note.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) One theory is that they had heard that Zam Zam camp would 
soon be expanding to fit another 10,000 people, and they arrived 
early to ensure that they are given spaces.  It is also possible 
that the group became fed up after five years of insecurity and 
destitution and finally left their villages.  However, in this case 
there is likely political agenda behind the movement, as OCHA 
suspects that the group is from areas south and southwest of El 
Fasher - areas exclusively controlled by SLA-Minni Minawi.  As the 
camp currently has no coordinator, they may be trying to benefit 
from the current lack of oversight.  "They all know the system by 
now," OCHA Humanitarian Affairs Officer sighed. 
 
¶5. (SBU) One further possibility, a bit more worrying, is that this 
group decided to move because of a perceived economic boom in El 
Fasher.  The Zam Zam camp is 16 km from El Fasher, giving residents 
access to the labor markets of the regional capital.  The UNAMID 
deployment has created significant demand for materials to make and 
furnish housing, additional local staff (guards, drivers, etc.) and 
food and other retail products.  However, IDP camps, with their free 
access to health care, education and food rations, were already 
becoming institutionalized without the increasing attractions of the 
"big city."  One OCHA representative said that in 2005, he believed 
that the IDPs would eventually return home.  However in 2008, after 
living through 3 more long years of conflict with no end in sight, 
he is no longer confident in future returns.  "Look at Abu Shouk 
(another IDP camp in the immediate El Fasher vicinity)," he said, 
"it's already like a suburb."  With the younger generation spending 
their formative years accustomed to the standards of living in the 
IDP camps (generally higher than average villages, which lack water 
and health services), traditions will begin to break down, he 
predicted. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Osman Mansour of Sudanese NGO SUDO (Sudan Social 
Development Organization) agreed, citing a growing divide in the 
camps between tribal leaders and the youths.  Youths are 
increasingly adapting to "city life," becoming more educated, and 
losing their connection to tribal roots.  "You can see it in 
workshops, when contentious issues arise.  These kids look at their 
elders, and their faces say 'who is this ignorant old man and why 
should I care what he thinks?'"  Mansour added that tribal leaders 
had recently walked out of a workshop that had been organized to 
promote dialogue between young and old, citing the youngsters' 
disrespectful attitude. 
 
KHARTOUM 00000704  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
Minimum Security, Services Necessary 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Mansour, whose organization runs the Justice and Confidence 
Center in Al Salam IDP camp in El Fasher, said that IDPs will only 
return to their lands when they have security, and when they see 
development taking place in their villages.  99% of NGOs and aid 
organizations focus on IDP camps, Mansour claimed.  No one is 
focusing on the remaining communities, both rural and urban, and 
some residents are now leaving their villages and cities for camps 
that provide better services.  "Whether you call it relief or 
development," he said, "you have to help the host towns and rural 
villages, as well as the camps." 
 
¶8. (SBU) With each year, Mansour lamented, it became less and less 
likely that returns would happen.  "A lot of people are benefiting 
from this conflict," he said, "and right now, nothing is more 
valuable than the money they are making."  When asked about the way 
forward, Mansour believed that a powerful show of international 
force, including the arrests of high ranking leaders known to have 
committed crimes, together with a quiet amnesty and visible 
development program geared at providing economic alternatives for 
fighters would be "a good start."  Rahm Talla Mahmoud, a respected 
tribal elder and Chairman of the Darfur Peace and Reconciliation 
Council (DPRC), agreed with this view.  According to his experience, 
largely centered on conflict mediation in IDP camps, returns will 
not proceed until adequate security has been restored, services are 
available in the villages and those who have committed crimes during 
the conflict are brought to justice. This last demand is a refrain 
that rebels and IDPs, especially Abdul Wahid Nur supporters, 
frequently flog and which would certainly guarantee more war. In 
settling the CPA that ended a much more destructive war, no one has 
been brought to justice. 
 
------------------------- 
Concerns for the Future 
------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) As IDP camps become increasingly institutionalized, and 
local labor markets in nearby host cities begin to absorb more and 
more IDPs into what the LA Times recently called the "war economy," 
the debate on if and when to return to homelands has been 
significantly curtailed.  Darfuris see a UNAMID force which cannot 
even secure the city in which it is based, a ceasefire commission 
which has stopped meeting due to the lack of a ceasefire, and 
continued GOS aerial bombardment campaigns as signs that the 
low-grade conflict will continue indefinitely.  Faced with that 
reality, it is tempting to cut one's losses, and ties with the past, 
in order to focus on a potentially more prosperous future as a 
result of "forced urbanization". 
 
¶10. (SBU) In addition, the issue of land ownership is likely to 
generate some degree of conflict amongst returning IDPs.  Oxfam 
representatives reported that the GOS had recently been offering 
land to IDPs who agreed to return to villages.  With few records, 
many conflicting interpretations of the law, and no clear method for 
resolution of land disputes, this practice has the potential to 
cause clashes if or when the security situation ever improves enough 
for large scale returns.  When asked about its role in possible 
return disputes, the Chairman of the North Darfur Land Commission 
seemed genuinely baffled by the suggestion that an upsurge in IDP 
returns could affect the work of his commission.  He admitted that 
the Land Commission had done no contingency planning for such an 
event, believing that pre-war land ownership boundaries were well 
known, and as such, there would be minimal conflicts. 
 
--------- 
Comment 
--------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Even if a political solution to the current crisis in 
Darfur were to be reached, there are questions about both the 
international and local communities' abilities to support widespread 
IDP returns.  While some international humanitarian organizations do 
work in villages to rehabilitate basic services, the majority spend 
the bulk of their resources on the camps, providing immediate, 
rather than sustainable, relief.  This is both understandable and 
necessary in the current environment.  However once the problem of 
security has been resolved, there will still be significant 
challenges to provide quality services and economic opportunities in 
the villages that rival those to which IDPs have become accustomed 
in the camps, and therefore community development and recovery 
program planning must begin now. At the same time, such efforts must 
not be manipulated by a GOS seeking to reinforce its bloody facts on 
the ground created in 2003-2005 and beyond. 
 
KHARTOUM 00000704  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) The security situation is clearly not yet conducive at 
this time for widespread IDP returns.  However, as we continue to 
press for political progress on the peace process, we cannot forget 
that social progress will also be necessary to reintegrate a 
traumatized population whose lifestyles have radically changed 
during years of conflict.  If we are serious about ending the 
suffering as quickly as possible once a political agreement has been 
reached, organizations that have the flexibility to do so should be 
encouraged to begin planning for longer term development projects in 
addition to their immediate relief efforts. 
 
FERNANDEZ