VZCZCXRO8338
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHNAG RUEHNH
RUEHPB RUEHPOD
DE RUEHHI #0537/01 1290950
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 080950Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7767
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 4682
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 HANOI 000537 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, EAP/EP, OES/EGC, OES/STC 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR ANE, G/ENV, EGAT/ESP (CHIP BARBER) 
STATE PASS TO EPA/OIA (DENNIS CUNNINGHAM AND MARK KASMAN) 
STATE PASS TO NOAA/NOS/OIA (JONATHAN JUSTI) 
HHS/OSSI/DSI PASS TO HHS/OGHA (WSTIEGER, LVALDEZ, CHICKEY) AND 
NIH/FIC (RGLASS) 
CDC FOR SBLOUT, KMCCALL, JGERBERDINE, MCOHEN 
USDA FOR FOREST SERVICE/INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS (CYNTHIA MACKIE AND 
KELLI YOUNG) 
BANGKOK PASS TO RDMA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ENRG ECON TBIO KGHG VM
SUBJECT: POSSIBILITIES FOR USG COLLABORATION WITH VIETNAM ON CLIMATE 
CHANGE 
 
Ref: A. Hanoi 108 B. 07 Hanoi 1869 C. Herrup 4/8/08 e-mail 
 
HANOI 00000537  001.2 OF 005 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Vietnam's unique position as a growing emitter 
facing imminent and serious impacts from climate change makes it a 
particularly attractive partner for collaboration with the United 
States.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned 
that Vietnam will be one of the countries most severely affected by 
climate change.  At the same time, Vietnam's greenhouse gas 
emissions will continue to grow at extremely high rates and it is 
quickly is joining the ranks of major developing nation emitters. 
The Government of Vietnam (GVN) has made a firm commitment to 
addressing climate change and, with World Bank and UNDP support, has 
already begun drafting a comprehensive national action plan. 
Efforts to assist Vietnamese climate change adaptation and 
mitigation can make a difference now, when it has just begun in 
earnest the process of ramping up industry and power generation. 
Though we understand that available funding and resources may be 
limited, targeted use of these resources for mitigation and 
adaptation interventions - increasing efficiency and productivity 
before the need for expensive retrofitting and remediation - can be 
successful in addressing the effects of climate change in Vietnam. 
The upcoming visit of Prime Minister Dung provides an opportunity to 
highlight existing and new efforts in a way that maximize their 
public diplomacy impact.  End Summary. 
 
Vietnam Will Face Severe Climate Change Impacts 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (U) A 2007 World Bank study listed Viet Nam as one of the top 
five countries most at risk from sea level rise.  Vietnam's 
coastline stretches 3,260 kilometers, with major population, 
agriculture, and industry concentrated in two broad river deltas, 
the Red River in the north and the Mekong in the south.  Already, 
Vietnam has witnessed increased temperatures and rising sea levels. 
The World Bank and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 
(IPCC) each predict that a significant rise in sea levels in Vietnam 
(Note: World Bank and UNDP predict one meter, IPCC predicts 69 
centimeters).  A one meter rise in sea level would flood half a 
million square hectares of the Red River delta and from 15,000 to 
20,000 km2 of the Mekong River delta and would destroy 2,500 km2 of 
mangrove swamps.  Vietnam would lose five percent of its land, seven 
percent of agricultural output and ten percent of GNP.  Per UNDP, 
rising sea levels in Mekong Delta would expose 45 percent of land in 
Vietnam's 'rice basket' to extreme salt water intrusion and crop 
damage, reducing rice productivity by nine percent and eroding 
Vietnam's remarkable progress to alleviate poverty - especially as 
climate change is most likely to affect the poorest citizens. 
Eleven percent (over ten million) of Vietnamese would lose their 
homes - the largest impact in the developing world.  Approximately 
1,000 km2 of cultivated farm land and sea product culturing area 
would become salt marshes.  Expected changes in weather patterns 
will lead to worse flooding (and erosion) during the rainy season 
and more severe drought during the dry season, along with increased 
frequency and severity of typhoons (which already caused damage 
valued at $ 750 million, or one percent of GDP, for 2007). 
Increasing water shortages and growing demand for water threaten 
water use conflicts.  Other negative impacts include biodiversity 
degradation, increase and spread of human and plant pests and 
diseases, damage to fisheries and injuries to coral reefs 
 
Increasing Vietnamese Greenhouse Gas Emissions 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶3. (U) According to the UNDP Human Development Report 2007/08, 
Vietnamese CO2 emissions increased from 0.3 tons per capita in 1990 
to 1.2 tons per capita in 2004, a 400 percent increase.  The 25.8 
percent annual growth rate was three times that of China and 12 
times higher than the average world growth rate.  Vietnam's share of 
global carbon dioxide emissions jumped from 0.1 percent in 1990 to 
0.3 percent in 2004.  The Asia Pacific Energy Research Center 
 
HANOI 00000537  002.2 OF 005 
 
 
predicts 6.2 percent annual growth in CO2 emissions over that time 
period.  The Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and 
Environment (MONRE) predicts CO2 emissions of 268 million tons by 
¶2020. (Note: fossil fuel burning also causes other air pollution 
issues in major Vietnamese cities). 
 
¶4. (U) As its energy consumption has grown, Vietnam has become 
increasingly dependent on fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas). 
Currently constituting 42 percent of Vietnamese energy generation, 
fossil fuels are expected to constitute 69 percent by 2030. 
Consistent with projections for continued rapid economic growth, the 
GVN and industry observers expect that Vietnamese power demand will 
increase steadily - up to 17 percent annually over the next two 
decades.  To meet that demand, Electricity of Vietnam (EVN), the 
state-owned power generation authority, forecasts that Vietnam will 
generate nearly 26,000 megawatts by 2010.  By 2025, EVN expects to 
generate 85,411 megawatts, over three times current generation 
capacity.  The Ministry of Industry (MOI) projects total coal 
consumption to reach 29-32 metric tons in 2010, 47-50 metric tons in 
2015, 69-72 metric tons by 2020, and 112-115, metric tons in 2025. 
By 2025, coal generation will increase by nearly sevenfold to 35,750 
megawatts and will form Vietnam's largest source of domestic energy 
-- 42 percent of power production.  Between 1998 and 2005, Vietnam 
signed more than 50 petroleum contracts with international oil 
companies to develop oil and gas resources and is planning a major 
refinery as well as gas-fired power plants.  Motor vehicle usage 
will continue to skyrocket, leading to additional emissions.  Per 
official statistics, as of December 2006, Vietnam had over 21 
million motorbikes (one for every four citizens, though observers 
believe that figure may under-represent the actual number).  Vietnam 
is the fastest motorizing nation in the world with motorbikes 
increasing by 15 percent (about two million units) each year. 
 
Now Is the Time to Intervene 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Vietnam's economy continues to boom with average annual 
economic growth of 7.5 percent during the last decade and 8.5 
percent growth in 2007.  The GVN aims to enter the ranks of 
middle-income developing countries by 2010 and achieve 
industrialized country status by 2020.  Goldman Sachs recently 
predicted continued eight percent annual growth through 2020 leading 
to a higher per capita GDP than Indonesia and the Philippines.  As 
noted above, Vietnamese industry and power generation will explode 
to support this sustained economic growth.  Therefore, now is the 
time to intervene in Vietnam - before the need to spend greater 
amounts to remediate and retrofit.  The United States can help 
Vietnam get it right the first time by working to increase the 
efficiency of energy generation and the productivity of industrial 
processes.  We can help reduce emissions before they reach 
problematic levels. 
 
The Government of Vietnam Is Committed 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) In the past, Vietnam consistently joined international 
climate change efforts and now has initiated a strong internal 
effort to address climate change.  Vietnam signed the UN Framework 
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on November 16, 1994 and 
ratified it on August 20, 2002.  In March 2002, Vietnam conducted 
the National Strategy Study to assess the country's GHG emission 
reduction potentials and costs.  Vietnam established the Clean 
Development Mechanism National Executive and Consultative Board on 
April 29, 2003 to approve projects eligible for CDM.  Through June 
2007, the CDM had approved nine project design documents for CDM 
projects with another 30 in the pipeline.  Vietnam ratified the 
Kyoto Protocol on May 29, 2005. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung raised climate change at his 
last meeting with the "Consultative Group" of international donors 
 
HANOI 00000537  003.2 OF 005 
 
 
in December 2007.  Over the next few months, the GVN quickly jumped 
into action, tasking MONRE with spearheading the creation of a 
National Target Programme on Response to Climate Change (NTP) - the 
national strategy to address climate change.  On March 28, 2008, the 
GVN cabinet met to review the first draft of the NTP, with a second 
draft sent to the Cabinet last week.  We expect the NTP to receive 
approval from the Office of Government and move to the National 
Assembly within the next month or two.  Early drafts of the NTP 
comprehensively discuss impacts - water, agriculture, forestry, 
fisheries, energy and transportation, human health, as well as 
Vietnam's need to limit greenhouse gas emissions and import better 
technologies.  MONRE Minister Pham and Vice Minister time have 
repeatedly requested climate change assistance from Ambassador 
Michalak, with a particular interest in financing mechanisms for 
adaptation and mitigation efforts (Refs A and B). 
 
¶8. (U) Other Vietnamese policies and laws buttress its commitment to 
reducing its carbon footprint.  For example, the new Vietnamese 
National Energy Policy focuses on environmental conservation and 
sustainable development, energy efficiency, and developing new and 
renewable energy sources.  Several recent GVN energy efficiency 
decrees, decisions, and circulars have urged energy saving and 
efficiency.  Other GVN agencies have initiated their own responses 
to climate change.  The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural 
Development (MARD) recently announced a 1.9 trillion dong 
(approximately USD 120 million) plan to cope with impacts of climate 
change on the farming sector and, through its Forest Protection 
Bureau, has developed significant aforestation plans.  Finally, in 
March 2008, the GVN approved a national pilot policy and program on 
payments for ecosystem services (PES) 2008, the first of its kind in 
Asia.  USAID, through its Asia Regional Biodiversity Conservation 
Program, is currently working with GVN to incorporate payments 
reductions in forest-based greenhouse gas emissions into the 
national PES scheme. 
 
Vietnam: A Steady Partner in International Efforts 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Vietnam plays a leading role in international global health 
initiatives.  As one relevant example, international donors hold 
Vietnam up as a model for its response to avian influenza, both for 
its strong domestic initiatives and for its consistent participation 
in global efforts.  Learning from its experience with Severe Acute 
Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the GVN took quick action to contain 
avian influenza, and has been rewarded with a notable drop in the 
number and intensity of animal outbreaks and human infections. 
Through the Partnership on Avian and Human Influenza, Vietnam works 
closely with donors to develop a comprehensive and sustainable 
response to avian influenza.  Unlike Indonesia, Vietnam remains 
committed to sample sharing and coordinating with international 
vaccine efforts. 
 
A Broad and Fruitful History 
of U.S.-Vietnam Cooperation 
---------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) The GVN sees the United States as a critical source of 
financial and technical assistance in many areas.  Over the past ten 
years, Washington has effectively invested limited aid dollars to 
support Vietnam's transition to a market economy by strengthening 
trade liberalization.  Two USAID-funded programs, the Support Trade 
Acceleration (STAR) and the Vietnam Competitiveness Initiative 
(VNCI), both have had great success in their support for Vietnam's 
efforts to create a modern market economy and the requisite legal 
framework.  Last September, pursuant to the U.S. National Nuclear 
Security Administration's (NNSA) Global Threat Reduction Initiative 
(GTRI), the USG brokered cooperation with the Russian Federation and 
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to assist Vietnam in 
converting its only civilian nuclear reactor from high to low 
enriched uranium fuel and return spent high enriched uranium to 
 
HANOI 00000537  004.2 OF 005 
 
 
Russia.  NNSA continues to assist Vietnam to develop the necessary 
physical and regulatory safeguards to establish a civilian nuclear 
power sector.  Finally, the United States and Vietnam have a long 
history of collaboration on health issues, including HIV/AIDS, avian 
influenza, and the fight against other infectious diseases.  We work 
very closely with our GVN counterparts and have been consistently 
impressed with their skills and engagement. 
 
We Can Build on Existing Climate Change Collaboration 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶11. (U) For a number of years, USAID has supported efforts to help 
address Vietnamese environmental issues.  From 1993 to 2005, USAID's 
U.S.-Asia Environmental Partnership program developed a number of 
activities in Vietnam, including the promotion of cleaner energy 
production and cleaner fuel standards.  USAID's regional Eco Asia 
program now focuses primarily on cleaner coal technologies and 
promoting the standardization and increased usage of compact 
fluorescent light bulbs.  In 2007, Vietnam became the 20th nation to 
join the U.S.-led Methane to Markets Partnership, an international 
initiative that advances cost-effective, near-term methane recovery 
and use as a clean energy source.  Since 2005, USAID has supported 
the USD 5 million Asia Regional Biodiversity Conservation Program 
(ARBCP), which has been instrumental in developing the new national 
payment for ecosystem services (PES) policy.  Currently, USAID is 
extending this program, with additional funding, through 2010, 
including a specific focus on integrating forest carbon into the PES 
system, and establishing systems and capacities for monitoring the 
impacts of climate change on key river systems.  The United States 
Forest Service (USFS) has worked for several years on forestry 
projects in Vietnam, often in partnership with USAID initiatives. 
On April 22, 2008, USFS signed a Letter of Intent with the 
Vietnamese Forest Protection Department for future cooperation that 
included a specific reference to climate change.  The United States 
Geographic Survey (USGS) has begun to work with Vietnamese 
environmental scientists to study the health of the Mekong Delta in 
the face of climate change and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 
Administration (NOAA) continues to work on coastal management issues 
in northern Quang Ninh province. 
 
U.S. Efforts Can Plug Into Multilateral Initiatives 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶13. (U) Earlier this year, several donors, including the United 
States, formed a committee to coordinate climate change efforts in 
Vietnam.  Representatives from over twenty countries, international 
organizations and NGOs have met to review GVN initiatives and to 
begin to discuss multilateral and bilateral assistance.  Chaired by 
the Danish Ambassador and the Resident UN Representative, the 
committee has provided input to the draft GVN NTP and has begun to 
coordinate assistance programs.  The Dutch Government and UNEP have 
funded a capacity development program for Clean Development 
Mechanism (CDM) projects in Vietnam and the GVN worked closely with 
the World Bank, UNDP, and Danida in drafting the initial NTP. 
 
Vietnam Can Serve as a Model 
for Interventions Elsewhere 
---------------------------- 
 
¶14. (U) The United States can leverage assistance to Vietnam to 
support broader climate change initiatives.  We can use Vietnam as a 
laboratory to devise programs and practices that we can then modify 
and adopt to other Southeast Asian nations or to Vietnam's larger 
regional neighbors, China and India.  The GVN's sustained history of 
adopting innovative solutions to a variety of national issues, make 
it a natural location to work on climate change.  Vietnam has been a 
model for avian influenza and HIV/AIDS responses.  We believe it 
could fulfill the same role with climate change.  The success of 
other U.S. environmental initiatives has already spawned requests 
for similar programs abroad.  For example, recent progress on 
 
HANOI 00000537  005.2 OF 005 
 
 
payments for ecosystem services (PES) under the USAID-supported 
ARBCP, discussed above, have resulted in requests from the 
governments of Cambodia and Lao PDR for ARBCP assistance to develop 
their own PES policies and projects. The GVN's demonstrated resolve, 
creativity, flexibility, and openness to cooperative partnerships, 
combined with its ability to quickly implement policy initiatives, 
make it possible to initiate innovative programs and approaches here 
that may be scaled up for application in China and India. 
 
If We Decide to Collaborate, 
Now Would be Good Time to Act 
----------------------------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung plans to visit 
the United States at the end of June.  This could create a possible 
setting to announce a package of climate change related initiatives. 
 We have already detailed several mitigation and adaptation 
proposals in correspondence to various U.S. agencies (Ref C) and ask 
that these agencies strongly consider these or other ways to support 
Vietnamese climate change initiatives. 
 
MICHALAK 
 
 
 
 
6