VZCZCXYZ0006 
RR RUEHWEB 

DE RUEHDM #0376/01 1491028 
ZNR UUUUU ZZH 
R 281028Z MAY 08 
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS 
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5024 
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC 
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS DAMASCUS 000376 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA; STATE PLEASE PASS TO USDA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINR EAGR ECON SY
SUBJECT: SYRIA AND UG99 DAMAGING WHEAT FUNGUS (C-TN8-00647) 
 
REF: A. STATE 38800 B. DAMASCUS 311 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) In response to ref A, ICARDA has not confirmed any 
reports of Ug99 stem rust in Syria. Should a possible 
outbreak occur, ICARDA's staff pathologist is capable of 
conducting in-house laboratory analysis to quickly determine 
whether the disease is Ug99. Although SARG Agriculture 
Ministry contingency plans for Ug99 are unknown, ICARDA 
experts believe application of fungicides could control an 
outbreak if it is identified early enough. ICARDA's main 
contribution to combatting Ug99 comes from identifying lines 
and varieties of wheat that are genetically resistant to the 
disease, and making these strains available to national 
programs throughout north Africa, the Near East and Southwest 
Asia. Although Ug99 is not yet present in Syria, persistent 
drought conditions, late frosts, and a recent increase in the 
price of diesel are contributing to a difficult year for 
Syrian wheat and barley farmers. Consequently, the latest 
estimate of the 2008 wheat crop projects a yield of only two 
million tons -- a decline of 60 percent below average. End 
summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
No Reports of Stem Rust in Syria 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) According to the Aleppo-based International Center 
for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), there 
have been no reports of Ug99 stem rust yet in Syria. While 
there have been isolated reports of leaf rust and yellow 
(stripe) rust, the continuing three-year drought in Syria has 
not been conducive to the development of wheat rust and other 
foliar diseases. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Unusual Problems for Wheat and Barley Farmers 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Even without the presence of Ug99, Syrian wheat and 
barley farmers are having a difficult year (ref B). Current 
cumulative rainfall to date is just 211mm, down from an 
average cumulative rainfall of 319mm since 1978. A warm 
winter, coupled with a late spring frost, has exacerbated the 
drought conditions and decreased this year's wheat and barley 
crop. Furthermore, the SARG's May 3 decision to increase the 
price of subsidized diesel (mazout) by 357 percent convinced 
many farmers to cease irrigation. Facing higher costs for 
irrigation, harvesting, and transportation to market (only to 
sell at below-market government-fixed prices), many farmers 
are trying to recoup production costs by selling their 
irrigated crops for grazing sheep. Normally, Syria produces 
4.7 to 4.9 million tons per year (mt/yr) of wheat, while 
domestic demand averages four mt/yr. A recent albeit 
informal USDA estimate of the 2008 crop projects a yield of 
only two million tons -- a decline of 60 percent. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Monitoring Programs and Laboratory Tests for Ug99 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4. (SBU) ICARDA contributes to monitoring and surveillance of 
Ug99 through the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative (BGRI), which 
was launched in April 2008. ICARDA's staff pathologist is 
capable of conducting laboratory examinations of wheat rust 
samples at the ICARDA campus to quickly determine whether or 
not the disease is Ug99. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Ministry of Agriculture's Plan for Containing Outbreak 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Due to the strained bilateral relationship, Post has 
no direct communication with the Syrian Ministry of 
Agriculture. While ICARDA enjoys better relations with the 
Ministry of Agriculture, ICARDA staff are reluctant to 
jeopardize this relationship by sharing information about any 
SARG plans with Post. Even so, ICARDA experts emphasized 
that the extent to which they could control an outbreak by 
the rapid application (spraying) of fungicides would depend 
on identifying the disease in the early stages of infection. 
 
------------------------------- 
ICARDA's Efforts to Combat Ug99 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) ICARDA has been working closely with FAO, USDA, and 
other national and international organizations to combat the 
spread of Ug99 since the Global Rust Initiative (GRI) was 
launched in 2005. ICARDA experts believe the most effective 
strategy for controlling the disease is by growing wheat 
varieties that are genetically resistant. Consequently, 
ICARDA's primary contributions are to identify lines and 
varieties of wheat that are genetically resistant to Ug99, 
and make these strains available to national programs 
throughout north Africa, the Near East and Southwest Asia. 
CORBIN