VZCZCXRO9729
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHCO #0281/01 1300638
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090638Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY COTONOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0314
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1264
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0337

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000281 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W DBANKS 
PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BN
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTIES NEGOTIATE PENDING OFFICIAL ELECTION 
RESULTS 
 
REF: COTONOU 219 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Following the April 20, 2008 municipal elections, 
President Yayi has launched negotiations to bring representatives of 
opposition political parties into his government. Informal polling 
results published in the press continue to indicate that President 
Yayi's Force Cowry for an Emerging Benin (FCBE) grasped the majority 
of municipal posts nationwide, though it failed to win three major 
city halls in southern Benin. The National Independent Electoral 
Commission (CENA) has not yet released the official results of the 
April 20 election.  The CENA conducted another round of polling on 
May 1 in areas where the April 20 polls did not take place or were 
nullified (Reftel). END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Renaissance of Benin did well on May 1 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The CENA conducted new polling on May 1 in the six 
arrondissements in southern and central Benin where polling failed 
to take place on April 20 due to irregularities and logistics 
problems (Reftel). According to press reports, provisional results 
of the rescheduled polls point to the Renaissance of Benin (RB) 
party's victory in 5 arrondissements, followed by President Yayi's 
Force Cowry For an Emerging Benin (FCBE) in 1 arrondissement.  The 
new polls in these 6 areas did not impact the initial general trends 
of the April 20 polls, which put RB ahead in the south and FCBE 
ahead in the north. 
 
--------------------------------- 
FCBE's weakness in southern Benin 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Apart from FCBE's failure to win in the large southern cities 
of Cotonou, Porto-Novo and Abomey, its most striking defeat on April 
20 occurred in Ouidah, where the Liberal Democrats' Rally for 
National Reconstruction-Vivoten (RDL-Vivoten), unexpectedly grasped 
the majority of the city council's seats.  This defeat came in spite 
of the efforts of three ministers in Yayi's government, all natives 
of Ouidah, who campaigned hard for FCBE candidates. As reported in 
reftel, provisional results indicate that FCBE did not do well in 
Cotonou.  However, according to a well-connected source in Cotonou's 
city hall, the CENA may proceed with massive vote cancellations in 
some of Cotonou's polling stations due to errors made by election 
workers.  These cancellations could favor FCBE.  In spite of FCBE's 
failure to win the big cities in the south, provisional results 
continue to show that FCBE has taken control of 52 communes (mostly 
in Northern Benin) out of 77 nationwide. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
President Yayi starts negotiations with opposition 
parties 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶4. (U) According to a source close to RB party leader and former 
Beninese president Nicephore Soglo, party leaders are negotiating 
with Yayi over entering his government, but doubt Yayi's good faith 
and sincerity.  Press reports indicate that President Yayi is also 
negotiating with representatives of the G13, a group of minor 
parties which stood against FCBE in the municipal elections, and 
representatives of the Party of Democratic Renewal (PRD) and the 
Social Democrat Party (PSD). It appears doubtful that PRD leader 
Adrien Houngbedji, who nourishes presidential ambitions for 2011, 
will enter the government as he will want to run against Yayi's 
performance in 2011. 
 
------------------------------ 
CENA delays final poll results 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The CENA announced that it would publish the official 
election results on May 5 but did not. An official from CENA's 
Permanent Secretariat (SAP-CENA) told post that the CENA continues 
to tally the votes and that results would not be released for at 
least another 10 days.  He added that the CENA's president is coming 
under increasing pressure to release the results from the leaders of 
the political parties.  After the CENA releases the results, they 
still must be validated by the Supreme Court. The validation process 
may take some time because of appeals voters can make to contest the 
results. A Supreme Court judge told post that the Supreme Court has 
already received over 200 appeals from voters and that those could 
increase in number upon the CENA's release of the official results. 
He added that a large part of the election contestations might be 
declared inadmissible by the Supreme Court for lack of evidence. 
 
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COTONOU 00000281  002 OF 002 
 
 
Comment 
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¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: The results of the 20 April and 1 May municipal 
and local elections are a barometer for President Yayi to gauge his 
popularity and to re-direct his political management, particularly 
in Cotonou.  It appears that many in Cotonou did not vote for 
President Yayi's FCBE because they did not agree with his policy, 
the poor quality of some of the candidates FCBE presented, and 
suspicion of Yayi as a "northerner". FCBE's failure to take Cotonou 
was a major setback, and surprise, for President Yayi who now turns 
to his former opponents to bring them into the government. 
President Yayi is trying to bring these other parties into the 
government as he seeks to satisfy parties' claims to participate in 
his government and to build a coalition for his victory in the 2011 
presidential elections.  A win for him in 2011 will be contingent 
upon his ability to win back the political allies who supported him 
in 2006 while also implementing his political and economic agenda. 
END COMMENT. 
 
BOUSTANI