VZCZCXRO7872
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0203/01 1401434
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191434Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2534
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000203 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: FULANI VILLAGERS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ECONOMY 
THAN ELECTIONS 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  A recent road trip into villages throughout 
Middle Guinea reveals that villagers just thirty minutes off 
the main road are unaware that the Guinean Government is 
organizing legislative elections in six months.  Villagers 
were generally preoccupied with basic cost of living issues 
and spoke of elections only in vague, hopeful terms.  Most 
people agreed that Guinea's political and economic situation 
is worse now than ever before, for which they blame Prime 
Minister Kouyate, but did not seem to see any clear solution 
in sight.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  On May 8 and 9, Poloff visited five different Fulani (a 
Guinean ethnic group also known as Peuhl) villages between 
Mamou and Labe in order to get a sense of villagers' 
perspectives on upcoming legislative elections, the economy, 
and Guinea's political situation.  In a small village located 
directly on the main road, Poloff met with a man who claimed 
to be a member of the ruling Party for Unity and Progress 
(PUP), and the recently appointed president of the local 
electoral commission.  Another stop was a weekly market that 
straddled the main road, attracting villagers from throughout 
the prefecture, where Poloff chatted with a gathering of 
several elderly gentlemen.  Poloff also visited three small 
villages located between 30 to 60 minutes outside of the 
urban center of Labe, via rough dirt roads.  In one village, 
more than 40 men gathered after evening prayers to discuss 
their views.  In another village, Poloff met with three 
middle-aged farmers, who were also brothers, and their 
grandfather, on their shared family compound. 
 
-------------------------------- 
THINGS ARE WORSE NOW THAN BEFORE 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  Without exception, villagers agreed that Guinea's current 
political and economic situation is worse now than it was in 
2006 and early 2007.  Many blamed Prime Minister Kouyate, who 
they said has failed to make any meaningful progress towards 
improved governance.  The PUP member outside of Pita told 
Poloff that the government is completely blocked.  When asked 
who is responsible for the lack of progress, he said "I can't 
say at my level, all we see is that the system is not 
working."  A village elder outside of Labe said "there has 
been no change, nothing has changed."  Other villagers told 
Poloff that no one is content, but they continue to hope for 
change.  In another village, farmers said that people 
initially had great confidence and hope in Kouyate, but that 
this sentiment has dissipated in response to unfulfilled 
promises. 
 
-------------------------- 
FEELING THE ECONOMIC PINCH 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Cost of living issues took center stage during village 
discussions.  At the market gathering, elders told Poloff 
that a single "measure" of rice used to cost about $.02, but 
now costs closer to $.66, while fornio (a local grain) has 
increased from $.11 to $.56.  They also said that dried fish 
is becoming exorbitantly expensive at $2.22/measure.  When 
asked how people are coping with the prices, the elders said 
that the villagers have been able to tolerate the prices so 
far, but that they will no longer be able to do so once the 
rainy season starts (usually in June). 
 
¶5.  The PUP representative said that the rising prices are 
particularly painful and he had "never seen it like this." 
In another village, elders said that everyone is preoccupied 
with the high cost of living, but that the government is not 
doing anything to offer economic relief.  Farmers living on a 
multiple-family compound told Poloff that they can no longer 
make ends meet and have already started cutting back on 
consumption.  They said that they are only doing subsistence 
farming, but that it is not enough to support their families, 
and they can no longer afford to buy staple goods at the same 
rate.  One farmer pointed out that food itself is not the 
only issue, saying that it used to cost $.44 to transport a 
bag of rice from Labe to the village, but that the price of 
the trip has doubled, and now costs about $1.11. 
 
¶6.  When asked why they thought prices were rising, most 
villagers said that they are aware that world prices are 
increasing, which is impacting local markets.  However, they 
all thought that the Guinean Government should be doing more 
to alleviate economic pressures.  The PUP representative told 
Poloff that the government's recent export ban is an 
excellent initiative that will bring food prices down.  When 
Poloff asserted that an export ban is not sound economic 
 
CONAKRY 00000203  002 OF 002 
 
 
policy, he disagreed and said that it may "pinch" farmers 
initially, but everyone will benefit from the lower prices. 
In another village, elders told Poloff that neighboring 
countries have already started implementing economic relief 
measures, and that the Guinean Government needs to respond 
soon in order to avert a food crisis. 
 
---------------------------- 
NOT THINKING ABOUT ELECTIONS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7.  Although villagers seemed to be reasonably well aware of 
global market forces and their impact on the local economy, 
many people were unaware that Guinea is organizing 
legislative elections in just six months.  People with 
regular access to main roadways did know that elections are 
on the horizon and were able to comment on initial 
preparations.  However, those living in the quiet village 
communities appeared surprised when Poloff asked about 
elections.  One elder said "yes, we have heard something 
about elections, but we do not know if they have set a date, 
or even what the elections are for."  A farmer in another 
village essentially said the same thing.  When Poloff 
questioned whether there had been any discussions about 
elections on the local radio, villagers said that there had 
been some vague announcements, but no one really knows what 
is going on. 
 
¶8.  Those villagers who were aware of impending elections 
told Poloff that they hope the elections will be different 
from past elections, and that they will result in a more 
fairly elected legislature.  The PUP representative, who is 
also the recently elected president of the local electoral 
commission, said that "elections are the answer if we elect 
good, honest people."  However, he also said that his 
electoral commission, which consists of three members, has 
not held any meetings yet, and that they do not have any 
operational resources. 
 
¶9.  After informing people in more remote villages that the 
Guinean Government is in fact organizing elections for late 
2008, Poloff asked what people thought about elections in 
general.  One elder said that he was "not really interested 
in politics because nothing ever changes."  Another villager 
said that they only ever hear from the politicians in the few 
months of campaigning before elections, and then they all 
disappear.  "They speak about the many projects they will 
bring us, but then we never see anything materialize," one 
villager said.  Despite this sense of pessimism, villagers 
said that they do want to see a national voter registration 
campaign, which may help bring more transparent, credible 
results.  A group of farmers said that the if the prime 
minister organizes the elections, as opposed to the 
president, there's a "better chance for transparency." 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  Although the comments from these Fulani villagers 
represent only a small sample of the population in Middle 
Guinea, they provide useful insights into what villagers are 
thinking about Guinea's current political and economic 
situation, at least in one part of the country.  There was 
very little interest in the political machinations of the 
capital, or even much knowledge of the day to day politics. 
People were deeply concerned about the immediate cost of 
living issues, but also the broader development issues.  One 
villager said that "if the government would just give 
everybody jobs, we would have peace."  Most villagers seemed 
to feel that the current government is not the answer, but 
they didn't have another solution to offer.  The lack of 
awareness of, as well as interest in, elections indicates 
that this government and the National Independent Electoral 
Commission have a steep road to climb if they are going to 
implement free and fair, transparent, credible elections in 
Guinea.  END COMMENT. 
CARTER