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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000192 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON KIRF KDEM IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS REELING AFTER BIG BJP WIN IN KARNATAKA 
 
REF: CHENNAI 119 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The May 25 announcement of the state assembly 
election results in Karnataka gave the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 
a major victory.  The party took 110 of the 224 seats in the 
assembly, leaving it three seats shy of an absolute majority.  The 
BJP quickly secured the support of five of the six independents 
elected to the assembly, putting it in a position to form its 
first-ever government in South India.  Congress, which had high 
expectations that Karnataka could stem the tide of state-level 
victories by its adversary BJP, won 80 seats and saw a number of its 
senior party leaders losing.  BJP's strong showing in Karnataka 
shows it is continuing to build momentum in advance of the next 
year's national parliamentary elections and is a portent of bad 
things to come for Congress.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
BJP on the verge for the first time in South India 
--------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The May 25 announcement of the results of Karnataka's state 
assembly elections gave 110 of the 224 available seats to the BJP 
(up from 79 in 2004), 80 to Congress (up from 65 in 2004), and 28 to 
the Janata Dal (Secular) (down from 58 in 2004).  The big gains were 
met with jubilation by BJP leaders throughout India.  Arun Jaitley, 
who headed the BJP's Karnataka efforts, described the win "as a 
dream story" and BJP president Rajnath Singh declaring that his 
party is now the "front-runner" in India's next parliamentary 
elections.  The BJP's victory came on strong performances in 
Bangalore and it its traditional stronghold in the state's northern 
districts.  The party got off to a good start in the three-stage 
polling by securing a majority of seats in Bangalore during the 
first stage of polling, and then surging in the central and northern 
districts in the the second two stages.  The one area where the 
party failed to do well in was the southern part of the state (with 
the exception of Bangalore). 
 
Terror and inflation fuel BJP surge 
--------- 
 
¶3.  According to media reports, the BJP played on voter resentment 
over rising prices as well as the fear of increased terrorism.  A 
May 10 bomb blast in the northern city of Hubli underscored the 
BJP's claim that Congress is soft on terror.  Although the explosion 
did not cause any injuries, the fact that it targeted a court which 
is trying several terror suspects highlighted the issue in 
Karnataka, only to receive further emphasis days later when the May 
14 Jaipur bombings received wide national coverage.  Explaining the 
party's victory, a state-level BJP leader told post the party had 
raised the "appropriate issues" that "resonated" in urban areas and 
the state's northern strongholds. 
 
BJP wins on caste calculations 
--------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The BJP's decision to project B.S. Yeddyurappa, a member 
of the Lingayat caste, as the party's Chief Ministerial candidate 
worked in the its favor.  Yeddyurappa was able to consolidate 
Lingayat votes behind the party, while still drawing support from 
other backward castes such as Kurubas and Idigas.  As a result, the 
BJP increased its vote share by 5.3 percent, up to 33.8 percent.  A 
media contact explained that while BJP consolidated the Lingayat 
vote and drew in other backward castes, the remaining castes were 
divided among the the various secular parties.  The contact added 
that the Muslim votes expected to go completely to the Congress 
ended up dividing between Congress and the the JD(S). 
 
Congress had no response to terror and inflation 
--------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Despite losing ground to the BJP in assembly seats, the 
Congress actually still won the largest vote share, with 34.6 
percent of the vote to BJP's 33.8 percent.  The party failed to 
sweep the southern districts as it expected, instead sharing them 
with the JD(S).  It then underperformed in the more BJP-friendly 
central and northern districts with a number of its senior party 
leaders losing their seats. 
 
 
CHENNAI 00000192  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Despite the focus on Congress's failure to designate a 
Chief Ministerial candidate as the cause for its troubles, B.K. 
Chandrasekar, a senior Congress leader told post that the real 
problem was the lack of a clear strategy to counter the BJP's 
campaign on terror and inflation.  Local Congress officials pointed 
the blame at the national party leadership, which they said was 
indecisive in the face of the BJP's disciplined campaign. 
Chandrasekar added that a stint in opposition will do the party good 
in the long run. 
 
BSP and SP irrelevant 
--------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Both of the caste based national parties -- the Samajwadi 
Party (SP) and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) -- failed to win 
a single seat.  SP's state party chief, the former Chief Minister S. 
Bangarappa, was routed by the BJP's chief ministerial candidate 
Yedduriappa by one of the biggest margins of the election -- 45,000 
votes.  The Karnataka BSP, headed by a former state industries 
minister P.G.R. Sindhia, saw the party's successful Uttar Pradesh 
strategy fail to work in Karnataka.  But Sindhia drew consolation 
from the fact the party had increased its vote share from 1.7 to 2.7 
percent.  Sindhia told post "we gave a tough fight to the Congress" 
which ended up helping the BJP in ten closely contested 
constituencies. 
 
Business wants stability; 
Christians fear BJP government 
--------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Business contacts told post their major hope is that the 
new BJP-led government will stay in power for a reasonable amount of 
time.  They said that a succession of unstable coalition governments 
has meant that much-needed infrastructure projects have fallen to 
the wayside, with the the deteriorating infrastructure leading many 
businesses to look toward neighboring Tamil Nadu as a more inviting 
investment destination.  An American business contact said he would 
expect BJP to focus on Bangalore's infrastructure, but worries 
whether they will remain in power long enough to get anything done. 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Christian groups in Karnataka are apprehensive about the 
BJP's victory.  A church leader noted that Christian votes went as a 
block to the Congress and said he worries that they will be targeted 
by the BJP as it looks to replicate the "Gujarat-type model" (i.e., 
consolidate the Hindu vote by targeting religious minorities) in 
Karnataka. 
 
Comment: BJP's "Gateway to the South"? 
--------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Some analysts quickly began talking about Karnataka as 
the BJP's "gateway" to the once impenetrable South India.  While its 
Karnataka win is impressive, the party still faces a tough road 
ahead in the rest of South India.  BJP's Karnataka success has been 
a long time in coming:  the fruit of almost twenty years of 
concerted efforts resulting in consistently increasing shares of the 
statewide vote.  But the BJP has remained a marginal player in the 
three other South Indian states.  Despite the BJP-related Rashtriya 
Swayamsevak Sangh's well-publicized street battles with the 
Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) in Kerala, the BJP has 
never won a state assembly or parliamentary seat in the state.  In 
neighboring Tamil Nadu, the BJP's vote share is stuck between 5 and 
7 percent in the face of the dominance of the two warring 
Tamil-based Dravidian parties.  As such, it is left to pin its hopes 
on alliances with either the AIADMK or DMK.  Andhra Pradesh is 
likely the BJP's next best opportunity in the South after Karnataka, 
but the BJP has seen declines in its electoral fortunes after its 
promising early forays into the state.  The party now finds itself 
squeezed between the ruling Congress party and the powerful regional 
Telugu Desam Party.  Given the BJP's long road to the Chief 
Ministership in Karnataka, one should not expect a major turnaround 
in the other South Indian states anytime soon. 
 
Comment: Congress snatches 
defeat from the jaws of victory 
--------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Nonetheless, BJP leaders have every reason to be 
 
CHENNAI 00000192  003 OF 003 
 
 
jubilant.  This was a major victory in a state where nobody -- 
Congress leadership especially -- expected the BJP to win enough 
seats to almost claim a majority on their own.  Between the party's 
historical strength in the state and the fact that its two rivals 
had embarrassed themselves in last year's coalition debacle, 
pre-election expectations were set high for Congress (reftel).  As a 
result, the party's efforts to downplay the result by pointing to 
their still strong vote share and overall increase in seats rings 
hollow.  They needed to win and their failure to do so sends the 
message that Congress somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of 
victory in a bellwether election that sets the table for the timing 
of national elections.  There is consensus among political observers 
that neither the Congress Party not the BJP will be in a position to 
form a government in Delhi on its own after the national elections, 
due by May 2009.  They will have to rely on alliances with dozens of 
smaller regional or special interest parties.  To the extent the 
Karnataka win provides the BJP with momentum and the aura of a 
winner, it increases its appeal with this pool of potential 
coalition partners.  Conversely, the weakened Congress Party will 
see its allies and potential allies begin to distance themselves 
from the party as the national elections approach. 
 
Comment: A deeper malaise in the Congress Party 
--------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Though our interlocutors all point to the potency of the 
twin issues of terrorism and inflation, something deeper lies at the 
foundation of Congress's malaise.  BJP's decision to designate B.S. 
Yeddyurappa as its Chief Ministerial candidate demonstrates the 
party's willingness to empower local leaders, a stark contrast to 
the Congress which is afraid of local leaders developing independent 
political power bases which may threaten the central leadership. 
The party fosters multiple state leaders who keep each other in 
check and end up always looking to the party high command in Delhi 
for answers.  Local Congress officials told us they blamed national 
party officials for their indecision in dealing with the BJP's 
attacks.  In a nation as vast and diverse as India, Congress will 
fall further behind both the BJP and the regional parties if its 
candidates always find themselves turning to Delhi for answers. 
 
Embassy Comment: Congress falls back on outdated formula 
 
¶13.  (SBU) As the pressure mounts on the Congress Party from a 
succession of state assembly elections losses and relentless attack 
from the opposition and its own allies, it has started to revert 
back to the outdated and tired formulae that kept the party in power 
for decades after independence -- hollow slogans about secularism, 
promises of quotas and subsidies to every interest group, attacks on 
"communalism" and brazen pandering to caste and community vote 
banks.  The party leadership fails to understand that the country 
and the electorate have changed dramamtically since the days of 
Indira Gandhi and such strategies no longer strike a chord with 
Indians.  Most of the inner circle surrounding the Congress Party 
leadership in Delhi consists of people who have seldom won an 
election.  They know little about the needs and hopes and ambitions 
of the modern Indian electorate, devise confused and muddled 
election strategies, but walk away unscathed from successive losses 
with their influence in the inner circle intact. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) As the Congress Party stumbles from one setback to 
another, it has become more risk-averse.  It has not undertaken any 
significant domestic or foreign policy initiative in the last year, 
except for an irresponsible super-populist budget which provided an 
unprecedented $17 billion debt write off for farmers but failed to 
mobilize any lasting popular support.  It is unlikely that the 
Congress Party will unveil any bold initiative in the run up to 
national elections, due by May 2009.  What the party needs to do is 
reinvent itself as a modern party catering to the desires and 
aspirations of the modern day Indian.  Its record during its four 
years in power inspires little hope that it will be able to be able 
to do so.  End comment. 
 
KAPLAN