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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000167 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: AN ELECTION PRIMER FOR INDIA'S NEXT BIG VOTE:  SHOWTIME IN 
KARNATAKA 
 
REF: Chennai 119 and previous 
 
¶1. Summary:  Voters in the South Indian state of Karnataka head to 
the polls in May to select 224 members of the state's legislative 
assembly.  More than 10,000 candidates are vying for these seats in 
elections that will take place in three stages, from May 10 to May 
¶22.  The main contest will take place between India's two largest 
national parties, the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP).   The local Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) party is likely to place 
third, and other other parties, such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and 
Bhujan Samaj Party (BSP), may play an important role, as well.  All 
eyes are on Karnataka for this election, as India's chattering 
classes ponder the 2009 national elections and whether the Congress 
Party can stem the tide of painful state-level electoral losses it 
has suffered in recent months. 
 
¶2. This is the first of a series of cables on these elections, and 
seeks to explain the basic framework of the polls.  Subsequent 
cables will offer more detailed analysis and a touch of local color. 
 End Summary. 
 
An election in three acts 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. For the first time in Karnataka, elections for the state's 
legislative assembly will take place in three stages (balloting in 
previous years occurred in only two stages).  The first stage, which 
will take place on May 10, will consist of the 89 constituencies in 
the state's southern districts.  The second stage will cover 66 
constituencies in the state's central and coastal districts on May 
¶16.  Voters in the 69 constituencies in northern Karnataka cast 
their ballots on May 22. 
 
¶4. Election authorities will deploy 39,758 electronic voting 
machines for the polls, which will allow almost immediate tabulation 
of results.  As is the normal electoral procedure in India, however, 
the results will be tabulated and announced simultaneously for all 
three phases only on May 25. 
 
A cast of 10,000 
---------------- 
 
¶5. More than 10,000 candidates are vying for the legislative 
assembly's 224 seats.  As elsewhere in India, Karnataka's is a 
first-past-the-post system, with voters casting their ballots for 
candidates representing specific constituencies.  A party needs to 
win 113 seats to claim a majority that will allow it to form a 
government on its own.  In typical parliamentary fashion, if no 
party wins an outright majority of seats, parties may attempt to 
cobble together a coalition that can command a majority. 
 
The real players 
---------------- 
 
¶6. Although candidates from a dizzying array of parties will contest 
the elections, most observers expect that either the Congress Party 
or the BJP will claim the largest number of seats, with the JDS -- a 
local party headed by former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda -- 
coming in a distant third.  Relative newcomers to Karnataka such as 
the SP or Mayawati's BSP are unlikely to win more seats than the 
other three parties, but may demonstrate significant strength in 
particular areas to tip the results in some constituencies or to 
play an important role as king-maker if neither the Congress nor the 
BJP can muster a majority, which seems likely. 
 
Knowing the audience 
-------------------- 
 
¶7. Politics in Karnataka has long been dominated by members of two 
castes, the Lingayyats and the Vokkaligas, who comprise nearly half 
of the electorate by some estimates.  Vokkaligas, traditionally 
farmers, dominate in southern Karnataka and have tended to divide 
their loyalties between the Congress Party the JDS.  The Lingayyats, 
traditionally traders, are more numerous in northern Karnataka, and 
tend to support the BJP. 
 
¶8. Members of the "backward castes," Dalits, and Adivasis (or 
"scheduled tribes") form close to 30 percent of the state's 
population, and are spread across constituencies.  They tend to 
split their votes among Congress, SP, and BSP.  Muslims and 
Christians comprise approximately 15 percent of the electorate, and 
 
CHENNAI 00000167  002 OF 002 
 
 
tend to support Congress. 
 
Special actors 
-------------- 
 
¶9. Karnataka's electoral map has, quite literally, been redrawn 
since the most recent election in 2004.  The redistricting process 
(known as "delimitation" in the local political vernacular) altered 
52 constituencies, but did not change the total number of seats in 
the legislative assembly.  The number of seats in the urban areas of 
the state increased substantially, with the greater Bangalore area 
now deciding 28 seats, compared with 16 in the previous election. 
 
¶10. The number of constituencies reserved for Dalit candidates 
increased from 33 to 36, while seats reserved for Adivasis jumped 
from 2 to 15.  The 51 seats reserved for candidates from these 
groups comprise 23 percent of the total, potentially giving these 
socially disadvantaged groups a decisive role in forthcoming 
elections. 
 
The prequel 
----------- 
 
¶11. In the April 2004 election, the BJP won the plurality of seats, 
with 79 -- an electoral first for the party in South India.  The 
Congress Party was "completely mauled" in the words of one political 
scientist, winning only 64 seats in a state where it had tended to 
control more than 100.  Perhaps the big winner, though, was the JDS, 
which pulled in 59 seats and joined Congress in the state's 
governing coalition.  The JDS then split and a faction formed a new 
government with the BJP, with Deve Gowda's son H.D. Kumaraswamy as 
Chief Minister.  The JDS-BJP government is remembered mainly for its 
squabbling, which eventually led to its collapse in October 2007 
when the JDS refused to hand over the post of Chief Minister to the 
BJP halfway through its term, as called for in the coalition 
agreement.  The parties managed to reform their coalition in 
November, with the BJP's B.S. Yediyurappa as Chief Minister -- 
making him the first BJP Chief Minister in South India -- but that 
arrangement fell apart within a week, leading to this month's 
elections. 
 
 
Comment:  A tragedy or triumph for Congress? 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. This is a very important election for the Congress Party.  It 
has been stung in a series of state elections across the country in 
recent months, and it desperately needs a strong showing to garner 
some sort of momentum in the run-up to next year's national 
elections.  With the embarrassing mess its two main rivals made of 
Karnataka's government and its historical strength in the state, 
many are expecting Congress to do well.  If it fails to meet these 
buoyant expectations, however, the party could be in serious 
trouble. 
 
¶13. The BJP hopes to carry momentum from its resounding victories in 
Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh last December.  It was anxious that the 
Karnataka polls be held earlier rather than later in expectation 
that it will gain from a sympathy factor resulting from what many 
see as the JDS betrayal of its coalition agreement.  The Karnataka 
election is also seen as a bellwether by many analysts because it is 
the last big state to go the polls before the Congress Party and the 
UPA decide on the timing of the national elections.  If the Congress 
Party fares poorly, its UPA allies will become even more skittish 
and, while unlikely to break with the UPA coalition, will more 
aggressively begin to distance themselves from a stumbling Congress 
Party.  End Comment. 
 
¶14. This cable was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. 
 
HOPPER