VZCZCXRO7430
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0533/01 1511811
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301811Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEHNS/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUZEHAA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000533 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: DEMOCRATS CONFIDENT AS COALITION NEGOTIATIONS 
CONTINUE 
 
Ref:  Belgrade 519 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  At the end of the third week of government 
coalition negotiations in Serbia, it appears that the Democratic 
Party (DS) is still on track form a democratic, pro-European 
government with the Socialists (SPS) and others.  DS leaders appear 
to be moving forward with a plan to finalize a deal with the SPS 
once parliamentary mandates are confirmed June 5.  The announcement 
of an inter-party coalition agreement for the city of Belgrade 
provided a PR boost to the radical-nationalist camp, but it was 
counterbalanced by rumors that key SPS coalition partner Dragan 
Markovic "Palma" would not play along.  End summary. 
 
Dulic:  We Remain Optimistic 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Speaker of Parliament Oliver Dulic (DS) told us on May 29 
that he remained very optimistic that his party's "For a European 
Serbia" coalition would reach agreement with the SPS on a coalition 
government.  Dulic explained that informal talks with SPS had long 
been underway, and would accelerate once parliamentary mandates were 
confirmed on June 5.  At that point SPS leadership could be certain 
that its own parliamentary contingent was dominated by pro-European 
forces, and would have the latitude to wheel and deal. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Dulic claimed that the top three leaders of the SPS -- 
Ivica Dacic, Zarko Obradovic, and Milutin Mrkonjic -- were now all 
in agreement on forming a coalition with the DS.  Obradovic had been 
the "toughest" to convince.  The three are now working to sway the 
300 members of the party's Central Board.  Dulic expected the board 
to meet in the coming days to take a final decision. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) One likely reason for Dulic's optimism is the rumor that 
United Serbia leader Dragan Markovic (aka "Palma"), a partner in the 
SPS electoral coalition, has withdrawn his support and favors a 
coalition with DS.  Palma's absence from a widely-publicized May 29 
meeting of PM Kostunica, SPS leader Dacic, Pensioners leader Jovan 
Krkobavic, and Serbian Radical Party (SRS) vice president Tomislav 
Nikolic was seen by many as proof.  Dulic tacitly confirmed this 
development, predicting that the Pensioners would soon "join Palma" 
and thus prevent the formation of an SRS-DSS-SPS coalition at the 
national level. 
 
SRS-DSS-SPS Deal on Belgrade 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Dulic was unfazed by the May 28 announcement that the SRS, 
the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), and the SPS had reached an 
agreement on the formation of a coalition government for the city of 
Belgrade.  He saw the announcement as part of SPS leader Dacic's 
"game" to demonstrate to his membership that he is playing both 
sides in order to get the best possible deal.  Dulic was confident 
that a national-level DS-SPS agreement would include Belgrade as 
well, noting that acting Belgrade Mayor Zoran Alimpic (DS) could 
control the timeline of the formation of the new city government by 
delaying the first meeting of the city assembly.  (Note:  Later that 
day, Alimpic announced that the first session would be held July 
14.)  Dulic also raised the possibility that if Prime Minister 
Kostunica were to leave the DSS, a Belgrade-level coalition with 
them would also be possible due the history of good cooperation with 
DSS leaders such as Nenad Komatina and Aleksandar Popovic. 
 
Differing Approaches Within DS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) In a May 30 meeting, president of the DS Political Council 
Drajoljub Micunovic -- who at 78 is the eminence grise of the 
democratic movement -- hinted at disagreement within the DS 
regarding the negotiating strategy.  A deal concluded too quickly 
would cost too much, he observed:  giving SPS too many key positions 
would result in a government that would not function.  He held out 
the possibility of new elections in October or November, predicting 
another strong DS showing based on the Vojvodina results (reftel). 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) There are critics within Tadic's coalition who believe 
he's flat footed and moving too slowly to form a democratic 
government.  That may be the case, since the nationalist camp stole 
a march on Tadic with its Belgrade City coalition agreement.  But if 
what Dulic and other DS leaders claim is true -- that Socialist 
leader Dacic has needed time to prepare his party for a jump from 
the nationalist to the pro-European camp -- then the slow pace of 
Tadic's government formation may yet prove to be a wise strategy. 
Most observers in Belgrade remain puzzled and many have simply tuned 
out of the ongoing soap-opera of government formation.  We continue 
 
BELGRADE 00000533  002 OF 002 
 
 
to believe that time is on Tadic's side, and that he may yet form a 
government at the republic level (and then even overturn the 
nationalist agreement in the city of Belgrade).  We may have an 
indication on June 5.  End comment. 
 
MUNTER