VZCZCXRO2198
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0509/01 1441546
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 231546Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0326
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGDA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0454

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000509 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: COALITION NEGOTIATIONS HEATING UP 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 468, B) BELGRADE 508, C) BELGRADE 500 
 
BELGRADE 00000509  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) President Tadic's formal meetings May 22 with the 
leaders of the parties that won seats in the new Serbian 
Parliament confirmed that no group has yet formed a majority, 
but it appears that pro-European forces have the upper hand. 
Socialist Party leader Ivica Dacic, whose coalition holds the 
key 20 seats needed for a majority, was in Athens on May 23 to 
confer with the Socialist International regarding prospects for 
membership.  May 25 provincial elections in Vojvodina could 
influence Tadic's choice for Prime Minister in an eventual 
pro-European government.  Negotiations over the Belgrade city 
government continue to be linked with national-level politics. 
End Summary. 
 
Election Results Official 
 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Serbian Election Commission's (RIK) May 20 
announcement of the official results of the May 11 elections 
paved the way for President Boris Tadic to begin his formal 
consultations on forming a new government.  The results, which 
varied slightly from the preliminary numbers (Ref A), were as 
follows: 
 
"For a European Serbia" (DS, G-17+, SPO, LSV, SDP): 1,590,200 
votes (38.4%) - 102 seats 
 
Liberal Democratic Party: 216,902 votes (5.24 %) - 13 seats 
 
Democratic Party of Serbia - New Serbia: 480,987 (11.61%) - 30 
seats 
 
Serbian Radical Party: 1,219,436 votes (29.45 %) - 78 seats 
 
Socialist Party of Serbia - Party of United Pensioners of Serbia 
- United Serbia:  313,896 (7.58%) - 20 seats 
 
"Bosniak Ticket for a European Sandzak": 38,148 (0.92%) - 2 seats 
 
"Hungarian Coalition": 74,874 votes (1.81%) - 4 seats 
 
"Coalition of Albanians of Presevo Valley": 16,801 votes (0.41%) 
- 1 seat 
 
President Tadic's Formal Consultations 
 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Presidential foreign policy advisor Jovan Ratkovic 
provided us with a readout on May 23 of President Tadic's 
meetings the previous day with party leaders: 
 
-- Representatives of the For a European Serbia (ZES) coalition, 
led by Tadic's own Democratic Party (DS), reported that they 
could form a parliamentary majority and would suggest their 
candidate for Prime Minister at a later point.  (According to 
press reports, DS deputy chairman Dusan Petrovic said that 142 
of 250 deputies would support the ZES program.  That number 
includes DS, LDP, SPS, and minority party seats.) 
 
-- The Serbian Radical Party (SRS) also claimed to be able to 
form a majority coalition and named Democratic Party of Serbia 
(DSS) leader and current Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica as 
their candidate for Prime Minister, according to Ratkovic, while 
Kostunica's own DSS representative Slobodan Samardzic declined 
to name a candidate.  Samardzic told Tadic that a deal had been 
reached on the national level and the ball was now in SPS's 
court to achieve agreement with its electoral coalition 
partners.  He claimed that the DSS-SRS coalition would have the 
support of 128 to 130 MPs; Ratkovic assumed the two swing votes 
belonged to Ugljanin's Bosniak Ticket for a European Sandzak. 
 
-- Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) leader Ivica Dacic told 
President Tadic that his party had spoken to both the DSS and 
the SRS about the principles of a coalition government, but had 
yet to discuss guarantees regarding program implementation; 
without such guarantees, no deal would be possible.  Dacic told 
Tadic that his party was very strongly opposed to the annulment 
of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the 
European Union, which Ratkovic observed was not the same as 
supporting its ratification.  Ratkovic told us that Dacic was in 
Athens on May 23 to meet with Socialist International (SI) head 
George Papandreou, who would stress the economic benefits of 
 
BELGRADE 00000509  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
European integration and offer SI membership in return for 
alliance with pro-European parties. He added that Dacic is also 
expected to go to Brussels on May 26 for meeting with Euro MPs. 
 
 -- Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Cedomir Jovanovic told 
Tadic that his party has two goals: speeding up EU integration, 
and stopping the radicalization of Serbia (i.e. ousting 
Kostunica from government). Jovanovic described cooperation with 
the SPS as the "lesser evil" and "a price worth paying" to get 
rid of Kostunica. 
 
 -- Hungarian Coalition head Istvan Pasztor, who claimed to 
control all four seats won by the list, said that he was ready 
in principle for a deal with the DS that would cover the 
republic government, Vojvodina, and the local level. 
 
-- Representatives of the Bosniak Ticket for a European Sandzak 
told Tadic that they had not had direct talks with any potential 
coalition partners, although they had been quite pleased with 
the public DSS offer of the regional development portfolio. 
They reiterated their strong support for the SAA and European 
integration.  (Ratkovic confirmed that Tadic had asked Turkish 
President Gul to urge coalition leader Dr. Sulejman Ugljanin, in 
Ankara at the time, to join with pro-European forces. 
Ugljanin's response was reportedly positive but non-committal.) 
 
 -- Representatives of the coalition of Albanians of Presevo 
Valley told Tadic that they would support a pro-European 
government. 
 
Possible Prime Ministers 
 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ratkovic told us that Sunday's runoff elections in 
Vojvodina (Ref B) would influence Tadic's choice for Prime 
Minister.  In the event of a narrow DS win or a defeat, Tadic 
would be reluctant to bring Bojan Pajtic (president of 
Vojvodina's Autonomous Executive Council and an able public 
administrator) to Belgrade.  MFA political director Borislav 
Stefanovic also confirmed on May 23 that Pajtic is one of the 
top candidates for Prime Minister, along with Minister of 
Finance Mirko Cvetkovic (Ref C). 
 
Negotiations for Belgrade 
 
------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Heated negotiations continue for control of the 
Belgrade city government.  (With its population of 2.2 million 
people and annual budget of $1.3 billion, the capital is the 
economic prize for any party.)  Minister without Portfolio 
Dragan Djilas -- the likely DS mayoral candidate -- expressed 
concern to us on May 23 that the DSS would succeed in forming a 
coalition with the Radicals and the SPS at the city level, 
shutting out the DS.  He claimed this would make it impossible 
for the national level DS-led government to function.  (Comment: 
 While Djilas's comments are clearly colored by his own 
interests, many observers concur that this type of split between 
Belgrade and the national level would be politically untenable. 
LDP leader Jovanovic told us on May 22 that he would be unable 
to support a DS-SPS coalition at the national level if the SPS 
worked with the Radicals in Belgrade.  End comment.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) According to SPS city board president Aleksandar Antic, 
the SPS would only be able to sell its members on the idea of a 
national-level coalition with the DS if it formed a coalition 
with the SRS and the DSS on the Belgrade level.  Antic told us 
on May 23 that his party intended to move quickly to form the 
Belgrade government in order to placate the SPS constituency and 
to buy necessary time for negotiations with DS on the national 
level.  He later told the press that a SRS-DSS-SPS city 
coalition agreement could be approved on May 25. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) While Antic claimed that the only viable option for 
SPS on the city level was a coalition with SRS-DSS, and ruled 
out the possibility of a DS-DSS alliance, Ratkovic claimed that 
the latter scenario was still a possibility.  He cited Belgrade 
City Committee Chairman Nenad Komatina's statement in the May 23 
edition of Standard that a last- minute twist resulting in a 
DS-DSS coalition was still possible. 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Negotiations may be entering their final stage, with a 
Tadic decision on whom to grant a mandate possible as early as 
 
BELGRADE 00000509  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
next week -- i.e. after the Vojvodina elections.  It is still 
impossible to predict whether the DS will succeed in wooing the 
SPS, but the indicators seem to be pointing in that direction. 
The fate of the Belgrade city government seems less clear, and 
could throw a monkey wrench into national-level negotiations. 
End comment. 
MUNTER