VZCZCXRO1578
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0508/01 1440741
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230741Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0324
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0452

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000508 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: VOJVODINA PROVINCIAL RUNOFF ELECTIONS MAY INFLUENCE 
NATIONAL COALITION-BUILDING 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 468, B) BELGRADE 474, C) 2007 BELGRADE 1364, D) BELGRADE 500 
 
BELGRADE 00000508  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Runoff elections for the autonomous Vojvodina 
province's provincial parliament will take place on May 25. 
Voters already chose the half of the parliament that is based on 
proportional representation and will choose the remaining, 
directly elected seats in the runoff.  The Democratic Party 
(DS)-led ticket is in a strong position to form a coalition with 
the support of the League of Vojvodina Social Democrats and the 
Hungarian Coalition.  Although a pro-European government in 
Vojvodina could clash with a Radical-led government in Belgrade 
over European integration and centralization of power, positive 
results in Vojvodina could help the DS position at the national 
level.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Direct Election for Parliamentary Seats in Vojvodina Province 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) Voters in the autonomous province of Vojvodina will head 
to the polls on Sunday, May 25, for runoff elections for 
Vojvodina's Parliament.  The first round of provincial elections 
took place on May 11 along with national and local level 
elections (ref A).  Half of the 120 seats are allocated by 
proportional representation, i.e. party lists.  Voters select 
the remaining 60 representatives by direct election in 
single-member districts.  None of the candidates for the 60 
district seats gained a majority on May 11, leaving all the 
seats in play in Sunday's runoff election.  After the runoff, 
the leading parties will form a coalition.  (A DS coalition 
currently governs Vojvodina.) 
 
 
 
DS Coalition Leading 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3.  (U) According to the official first round results, the 
DS-led For a European Vojvodina coalition won 23 of the 60 
proportional election seats.  The Radicals won 20 seats.  The 
Together for Vojvodina coalition, led by Nenad Canak's League of 
Vojvodina Social Democrats (LSV), and the Hungarian Coalition 
each won five seats. The Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) - New 
Serbia (NS) ticket won four seats.  The Socialists (SPS) won 
three seats. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In the May 25 runoff, For a European Vojvodina has 51 
candidates, and the Radicals have 39 candidates.  The Hungarian 
Coalition has 11 candidates, Together for Vojvodina has two 
candidates, and the DSS-NS has four candidates.  Nenad Canak 
predicted to us on May 13 that For a European Vojvodina, 
Together for Vojvodina, and the Hungarian Coalition would most 
likely form a coalition in the Vojvodina parliament.  He said DS 
was in a good position for the second round of the direct 
elections, and the parties' lists together would easily gain 
enough seats for a majority.  On May 16, Canak added that the 
speaker would be the Hungarian Coalition's Istvan Pasztor, who 
had conditioned his support for DS at the provincial and 
national level on obtaining this position.  (Note: Pasztor is a 
former presidential candidate and in general has been very 
supportive of advocating for minorities and diversity in Serbia. 
 End Note.)  Canak hoped to be Novi Sad Mayor in a coalition 
government for the city, but that decision would be part of the 
national level negotiations (ref B). 
 
 
 
Radicals Have a Chance 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) A Radical win in Vojvodina is not impossible.  The 
multi-ethnic province, which is home to several communities of 
Radical-leaning internally displaced persons and refugees from 
the wars of the 1990s, has long hosted subdued tensions between 
 
BELGRADE 00000508  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
the pro-European and reactionary forces.  While attacks on 
religious and ethnic minorities have not been increasing, they 
remain a significant problem and police (controlled by the DSS 
in Belgrade) often do not respond.  A series of public events 
organized by "skin-head" Nazi youth groups (which Canak claimed 
were orchestrated by DSS) in 2007 prompted Canak and others to 
hold "anti-fascist" counter-events (ref C). 
 
 
 
Likely Tension if Radicals Take National Government 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Gordana Matkovic, President Tadic's (DS) social 
affairs advisor and rumored candidate for Prime Minister (ref 
D), told us on May 21 that she expected the pro-European parties 
to form the Vojvodina provincial government.  Matkovic warned 
that in the event the radical-nationalist camp formed the 
national government, an eventuality she could not exclude, 
tensions between Vojvodina and the center would grow.  The 
autonomous province, with its strong economy and historical ties 
to Western Europe, would continue to favor EU accession and be 
eager for greater autonomy -- a demand that a 
radical-nationalist central government would undoubtedly refuse. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) If the expected DS-led regional coalition comes to 
pass, pro-European forces may gain additional bargaining power 
at the national level.  While a DS-led Vojvodina locking horns 
with a radical-nationalist national government could lead to 
increased center-regional tensions, the more likely scenario is 
that a Vojvodina win will help the DS in its national-level 
coalition negotiations.  End Comment. 
MUNTER