VZCZCXRO8832
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0500/01 1411648
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 201648Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0318
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGDA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0441

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000500 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SR PREL PGOV
SUBJECT: SERBIA: SPECULATION ON NEW PRIME MINISTER 
 
REF: BELGRADE 489 AND PREVIOUS 
 
BELGRADE 00000500  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Although there has been little progress in the 
formation of Serbia's new coalition government, speculation is 
growing about who would be the Prime Minister of a democratic, 
European-leaning government.  The leading candidates are 
individuals who would not pose a political threat to President 
Tadic.  The leader of the Socialists stated publicly that the 
Democratic Party was a more "acceptable" party ideologically 
than the radical-nationalist camp, giving the democrats a boost 
of optimism.  Informed observers remained concerned, however, 
that the DS'S slow approach to negotiations may provide the DSS 
and the Radicals time to outmaneuver Tadic and his camp.  End 
summary. 
 
 
 
Possible Candidates for Prime Minister 
 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) As party leaders continue to maneuver behind closed 
doors (reftel), public speculation about the next Prime Minister 
of Serbia is growing.  Minister of Finance Mirko Cvetkovic is a 
leading candidate.  Cvetkovic is a close associate of former 
Privatization Minister Aleksandar Vlahovic, current MP and 
leader of an influential wing of the DS which is close Serbia's 
business community.  Although he serves in the current 
government, Cvetkovic is not formally a member of DS and is 
thought not to pose a political threat to Tadic.  He is 
considered a competent manager who is acceptable to the business 
community and less susceptible than some to blackmail because 
the "dirty laundry" from his time at the Privatization Agency 
was aired thoroughly when he became Minister last year.  In a 
May 20 conversation with poloff, a source close to the DS who 
claimed to have discussed the issue twice with Tadic described 
Cvetkovic as a neutral choice who is well liked by Tadic, a good 
technocrat and competent economist, and likely acceptable to the 
Socialists (SPS). 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Goran Pitic, Executive Board President of Societe 
General and former Minister of Foreign Economic Relations under 
former Prime Minister Djindjic (who was assassinated in 2003), 
is currently in second place in the handicapping.  He is seen as 
an able technocrat who is close to the business community and 
likely acceptable to the SPS.  Pitic is known to post as an 
eloquent interlocutor who is seen by some as a potential future 
rival to Tadic due to his looks and charm.  Pitic was in a rock 
band in graduate school with Minister of Economy Dinkic (G-17) 
and former Privatization Minister Vlahovic, who was also his 
best man. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Bojan Pajtic, Vice President of the Democratic Party 
and President of Vojvodina's Autonomous Executive Council, is 
still rumored as a candidate, but his name is heard less 
frequently now than a couple of weeks ago.  Born in 1970 in 
Vojvodina, Pajtic was trained as a lawyer.  Given his solid base 
of support in Vojvodina, Pajtic is seen by many as too much of a 
potential threat to Tadic and could be too difficult to swallow 
to both the DS and SPS base in central Serbia. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Three other candidates whose names have been bandied 
about are competent technocrats who would be politically 
indebted to Tadic if appointed Prime Minister.  Two of them are 
women:  former Minister of Energy and Mines (2002-2003) and 
Governor of the National Bank of Serbia (2003-2004) Kori 
Udovicki, currently working in the UN Development Program in New 
York; and Gordana Matkovic, former Minister of Social Affairs 
(2000-2004), currently at Belgrade's Center for Liberal 
Democratic Studies.  Matkovic would likely be acceptable to the 
Socialists due to her background in social policy; she has 
reportedly previously refused the position.  Branko Milanovic, 
the lead economist in the World Bank's research department in 
Washington, also falls into this category. 
 
 
BELGRADE 00000500  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
 
Next Steps 
 
---------- 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) The Democratic Party is not likely to announce its 
choice for Prime Minister until it concludes its negotiations 
with coalition partners.  Those negotiations, in turn, cannot 
begin in earnest until the distribution of seats in the 
Parliament has been nailed down (and consequently SPS leader 
Ivica Dacic knows how many of his parliamentarians are actually 
willing to support a coalition with DS).  Parties have ten days 
from the publication of the final election results to submit 
their lists.  The Serbian Electoral Commission announced on May 
20 that the final results would not be published today as 
expected due to irregularities during the revote in three 
polling stations.  By law the final results must be published by 
May 22, meaning that the parties could possibly have until June 
1 to distribute their seats in parliament. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) On May 19, Socialist leader Ivica Dacic told the press 
that the DS was a "more acceptable" coalition partner than the 
Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and the Radicals.  Although 
this was widely taken as a sign that the DS still has the upper 
hand in forming the next government, some observers, including 
EU representative Peter Sorensen of the EU office in Belgrade, 
are concerned that DS has been too slow to take the initiative 
in direct negotiations with the Socialists.  If the parties do 
not move quickly to form a government once the parliamentarians 
are seated, the June 15 implementation of the Kosovo 
Constitution could provide an opportunity for the DSS and the 
Radicals to protest noisily and possibly seize the upper hand in 
coalition negotiations.  Kostunica's public silence in recent 
days should not be taken as a sign that he is out of the game, 
observers note.  (Sorensen noted that some within the DS would 
like to form a coalition with the DSS - minus Kostunica - due to 
past shared financial interests. Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic is 
also believed to favor the same type of coalition with the DSS 
due to his close working relationship with them on Kosovo 
issues.) 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In a May 19 conversation with poloff, acting mayor of 
Belgrade Zoran Alimpic (DS) stressed the linkage between ongoing 
talks on the municipal and national levels.  He warned that 
nothing would be final on the municipal level until agreement is 
reached on the national coalition, and recalled 2004 
negotiations for the city government when the DSS insisted on 
amending the political agreement at the last minute. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Tadic's pro-European forces currently have the 
momentum to form Serbia's next government, with the public 
signals pointing their way.  Post expects to see growing 
nervousness among observers from the democratic camp as the 
back-room negotiations stretch on, however, given Kostunica's 
track record of out-maneuvering the pro-Europeans at the last 
moment.  End Comment. 
MUNTER