VZCZCXRO7744
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0496/01 1401528
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191528Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0313
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 0005
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGDA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0435

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000496 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL MW KV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA'S SANDZAK: DESPITE PRO-DEMOCRATIC ELECTION RESULTS, 
LOCAL DIVISIONS AND PROBLEMS WILL PERSIST 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 474 B) BELGRADE 489 C) BELGRADE 279 
 
BELGRADE 00000496  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Democratic forces in the Bosniak majority city of Novi 
Pazar won more votes than the party of strong arm Mayor Sulejman 
Ugljanin in May 11th's local election.  Despite his second place 
finish, Ugljanin may still be able to maintain power with the 
help of a local Serb coalition and his party may have a deciding 
role on the national level.  Though the elections have given 
democratic forces a growing base of support, the Bosniak 
community in the Sandzak region will continue to face ongoing 
political division and security concerns.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
BOSNIAKS FAVOR DEMOCRATIC PARTY PARTNER 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) In Novi Pazar's May 11 local elections, the Democratic 
Party's (DS) coalition, led locally by its Bosniak coalition 
partner the Sandzak Democratic Party (SDP), won nearly 50% of 
the votes, outperforming the ruling Sandzak Democratic Alliance 
(SDA) coalition, led by incumbent strong arm Mayor Sulejman 
Ugljanin.  In the preliminary election results, the DS-SDP "For 
a European Serbia, led locally by Labor and Social Policy 
Minister Rasim Ljajic, won 48.9% (23 seats), and the SDA-led 
"For a European Sandzak" won 38.3% (18 seats).  The remaining 
17.8% (6 seats) went to the local Serbian List coalition, 
comprised of the indicted war criminal Vojislav Seselj's 
Radicals (SRS), Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic 
Party of Serbia-New Serbia coalition (DSS-NS), and the 
Socialists (SPS) of deceased indicted war criminal and former 
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic . In Novi Pazar, 24 seats 
will be necessary to form a majority in the 47 seat local 
assembly. 
 
 
 
BUT UGLJANIN STILL HAS OPTIONS 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Despite Ugljanin's defeat to the SDP, he may still be 
able to pull together a ruling coalition with the local Serb 
ticket (reftel A).  On the national level, both the DS and DSS 
are courting Ugljanin in order to secure the two seats his 
coalition won in the concurrent parliamentary elections (reftel 
B).  In either scenario, Ugljanin could continue to exert 
significant political influence. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The DSS had already approached Ugljanin to join them in 
a possible government coalition, Ugljanin's political advisor 
and current Bosniak MP, Bajram Omeragic, told DCM on May 14. 
The DSS had offered the SDA ticket the regional development 
ministerial portfolio, Omeragic said. SDA was willing to 
negotiate with the DS camp, Omeragic said, but the DS had been 
slow to provide specifics and the SDA would insist on a 
ministerial portfolio.  Omeragic said the Bosniaks were in a 
difficult political situation and that ultimately they wanted to 
avoid being the kingmakers of any coalition. 
 
 
 
MUFTI: AS LONG AS UGLJANIN REMAINS, COMMUNITY WILL BE SPLIT 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) As long as Ugljanin remains a political force in the 
region, he would continue to destabilize the Bosniak community, 
Mufti Muamer Zukorlic told poloff on May 12.   Zukorlic said he 
was pleased to see Ugljanin's lower popularity compared to 
Ljajic's SDP in the election but he did not expect Ugljanin 
would be "humble" in his local electoral defeat.  "Right now 
Ugljanin is coming up with a way to save himself," Zukorlic 
 
BELGRADE 00000496  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
said.  He said it was difficult to predict the outcome but said 
if SDA sided with the DSS and Radicals in the local Serb list, 
the region would continue to be destabilized. If Ugljanin loses 
power, Zukorlic expected that the competing Islamic community, 
led by Zukrolic's rival Imam Edam Zilkic, would collapse in the 
absence of Ugljanin's political backing. (reftel C) 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Zukorlic was well aware that these events were not 
isolated, and the coalitions that are forming on the national 
level would directly affect the situation on the ground in Novi 
Pazar.  Ugljanin's fate will be partly determined by how much 
support he receives from Belgrade and whether Kostunica remains 
a player on the national level.  "This is not yet played out," 
Zukorlic said. 
 
 
 
TRYING TO KEEP THE PEACE AMONG THE DIVIDED BOSNIAKS 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Regardless of whomever becomes mayor, the political 
division within the Bosniak community will continue to be a 
concern, Novi Pazar Police Chief Dragan Terzic told poloff on 
May 12. (Terzic, an ethnic Serb, became Chief of Police of this 
Bosniak region in January 2008.  Prior to his appointment he was 
Assistant to the Director of Police.)  Trying to keep the peace 
between the divided factions of the Bosniak community was a top 
priority for the local police, Terzic said.  The police, 
comprised of officers loyal to both Bosniak factions, have tried 
to establish trust from both sides, Terzic said.  He cited the 
absence of violence on election day as a step in the right 
direction, but admitted there was much more to be done. 
Ultimately, he said, resolving the dispute among the Bosniak 
community was not a police issue and could only be resolved from 
within the community. 
 
 
 
REGIONAL SECURITY STILL A CONCERN 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Novi Pazar will also continue to face security 
challenges which are specific to the region and magnified by the 
political situation, Terzic said. One of the largest security 
challenges was combating smuggling along the border with Kosovo, 
Montenegro and Bosnia, Terzic said.  He described Novi Pazar as 
"a region where various winds blow," and said the region was a 
den for organized crime, drug and weapons trafficking, and 
trafficking in persons.  He specifically cited smuggling from 
Kosovo as a security concern, calling Kosovo the "European 
Colombia" and the biggest smuggler of arms.  He said smuggling 
would continue to be a problem in the Sandzak region for the 
foreseeable future. 
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The DS-SDP electoral victory over the SDA ticket was a 
boost to democratic, pro-western parties.  Ugljanin, however, 
remains a potent force on both the local and national levels; 
and his political future, and that of Novi Pazar, may be 
determined by whichever national party can give him a bigger 
slice of the political pie.  Such political trading may only 
further divide the Bosniak community and aggravate the security 
concerns which the citizens of Sandzak continue to endure. End 
Comment. 
MUNTER