VZCZCXRO3559
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0474/01 1350437
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140437Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0283
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGDA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0399

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000474 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ELECTIONS: DEMOCRATS TAKE PLURALITIES IN MOST 
CITIES 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 294 B) BELGRADE 468 
 
BELGRADE 00000474  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  In Serbia's May 11 local elections President Boris 
Tadic's Democratic Party-led "For a European Serbia" coalition 
won a plurality of seats in Belgrade and in 13 of Serbia's 21 
other cities.  Similar to parliamentary elections, the 
Democratic Party's (DS) and its partners' performance over 
indicted war criminal Vojislav Seselj's Radical Party (SRS) was 
a welcome surprise and a boost to advancing Serbia's pro-Western 
aspirations on the local level.  Parties in most municipalities 
will now need to form coalitions in order to elect mayors.  In 
many cases, the DS won by a slim margin over other parties and 
could still be outmaneuvered by other potential coalitions.  As 
on the national level, the Socialist Party (SPS) of deceased 
indicted war criminal and former Yugoslav President Slobodan 
Milosevic may play the kingmakers in many municipalities. 
Coalition-forming process on the municipal level will wait until 
after parties form a governing coalition on the national level. 
End Summary. 
 
 
 
Winners by Town 
 
--------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) According to initial results of local electoral 
commissions, out of 22 cities in Serbia, the Democratic 
Party(DS), or its "For a European Serbia" coalition (ZES), won 
the most seats in Belgrade, Valjevo, Zrenjanin, Kraljevo, 
Krusevac, Leskovac, Novi Pazar, Novi Sad, Pozarevac, Sombor, 
Subotica, Uzice, Srmska Mitrovica, and Sabac.  The Serbian 
Radical Party (SRS) won the most seats in just one town - 
Smederevo.  The SRS tied DS in the towns of Nis, Pancevo, and 
Vranje.  The Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) - New Serbia (NS) 
coalition led only in Cacak, the hometown of NS leader Velimir 
Ilic. The Serbian Unity Party (JS), in coalition with the SPS, 
won a simple majority in the central Serbia town of Jagodina led 
by the current popular JS mayor Dragan Markovic (aka Palma). 
Group of Citizens Bosko Nicic won the most votes in Zajecar, 
while the Veroljub Stevanovic G17 Plus coalition won the most 
seats in the central Serbian town of Kragujevac. Below are 
details on Belgrade and four other key local elections. 
 
 
 
Belgrade-DS May Opt for Coalition with DSS 
 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶3.  (U) In the hotly contested race for the Belgrade city 
government, the ZES won 39.2% of the vote, accounting for 45 of 
110 assembly seats.  The SRS came in second with 35% (40 seats), 
and the DSS-NS coalition won 11.1% (12 seats).  The Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) won 6.9%, gaining 7 seats while the SPS 
won 5.2%, or 6 seats.  The ZES will need a coalition of 56 seats 
in the city assembly in order for its candidate Dragan Djilas 
(DS) to become mayor.  One possible outcome is for ZES and DSS 
to form a coalition together, Djilas said as much in today's 
press, and observers say he and DSS mayoral candidate Aleksandar 
Popovic had a constructive relationship. 
 
 
 
Novi Sad: DS and Vojvodina Social-Democrats to Form Coalition 
 
------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) In Novi Sad, the DS coalition won 31 of 78 seats in the 
city assembly, handily beating the Radicals (SRS) who won 25 
seats.  The "Together for Vojvodina" list, headed by Nenad 
Canak's League of Vojvodina Social-Democrats (LSV) and which 
also includes Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Party (SPO) won an 
additional nine seats.   Popular incumbent mayor Maja Gojkovic, 
who had won the office as a Radical but split from the party in 
March (ref A) won seven seats.  The DSS-NS list won five seats, 
 
BELGRADE 00000474  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
and the Hungarian Coalition (MK) won one seat. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Canak told poloff on May 13 that DS and LSV will 
definitely form a coalition in the Novi Sad assembly.  Political 
observers predict either Canak or the DS Novi Sad president, 
Igor Pavlicic will be mayor.  Canak, who was an MP in the 
outgoing parliament, told Ambassador on May 9 that, although he 
had not previously considered taking the post, Tadic would 
support him as mayor.  It would be an opportunity to clean up 
four years of the Radicals' (Maya Gojkovic's) damage and provide 
an example of good governance for the rest of the country. 
Canak told poloff on May 13 that he was negotiating for the job, 
but DS was absorbed with forming a coalition in the national 
parliament. 
 
 
 
Nis:  New Serbia Out, Democrats Probably In 
 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The results in Nis have the DS tied with SRS, each 
controlling 18 out of 61 mandates.  The G-17, SPS, and DSS-NS 
each won seven mandates.  The SPS, which won seven seats, will 
probably be the kingmakers, deciding between a DS-G17-SPS 
government or a SRS-DSS-NS-SPS government.  SPS representatives 
told emboffs on May 11 that the local coalition government will 
depend on agreements reached in Belgrade.  Notably, the previous 
mayor Smiljko Kostic (NS) will most likely not have a role in 
the new city government.  During the post-election media 
conference, the deputy leader of LDP announced, "Nis has 
returned to democracy!"  Observers note that the Nis election is 
interesting because for the past several years, Nis has had a 
mayor from a party not in control at the national level. 
 
 
 
Vranje: DS Ties with SRS 
 
------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) In Vranje, the DS and the Radicals tied with 16 seats 
each (out of 65), and either would need multiple coalition 
partners to govern.  Vranje is a Socialist stronghold, and the 
party won just over 17%, or 13 seats.  The DSS and NS each won 
close to 10% (8 and 7 seats, respectively).  Mayor Miroljub 
Stojcic (SPS) had previously governed in coalition with the DSS. 
 Local contacts told poloff that one possible coalition was 
SPS-DS-G17, which would have a thin majority.  Stojcic was 
unlikely to risk a coalition with the Radicals -- he had 
developed an excellent relationship with U.S. and other 
international assistance donors and would risk this if he 
partnered with the Radicals.  Stojcic told poloff on May 12 that 
he was beginning coalition negotiations "right away" and hoped 
there would be a government in Vranje soon.  Local DS officials 
told poloff on May 12 that they would be looking to form a 
DS-led government. 
 
 
 
Sandzak:  Bosniaks in Novi Pazar Still Divided 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In the overwhemingly Bosniak-muslim city of Novi 
Pazar, DS's Bosniak coalition partner the Sandzak Democratic 
Party (SDP), led by Labor and Social Policy Minister Rasim 
Ljajic, won 48.9% (23 seats) in the local elections.  SDP 
outpolled the current controversial mayor Sulejman Uglanin's 
Sandzak Democratic Alliance (SDA), which won only 38.3% (18 
seats).  The local Serbian List, comprised of the SRS, SPS, DSS, 
NS took 17.8%, accounting for the remaining 6 seats.  In Novi 
Pazar, 24 seats will be necessary form a majority in the 47 seat 
local assembly.  As a result the Serb parties are in a powerful 
negotiating position with the two rival Bosniak parties. 
Uglanin's chief of staff, Fikret Niksic, told poloff on May 12 
that Uglanin would be willing to reach out to the Serb parties 
in order to form a local government.  "Serbs deserve to be well 
represented on the assembly," Fikret said. Mirsad Jusufovic of 
 
BELGRADE 00000474  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
the SDP told emboff on May 13 that SDP was waiting for an 
agreement in Belgrade.  Jusufovic said SDP might offer SDA a 
coalition as long as SDP could have the mayor position - but 
that would be the last resort. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) The performance by the DS and its partners on the local 
level was a welcome complement to their parliamentary election 
results.  Despite this strong showing, the DS will still need to 
be flexible and patient in forming local governments, as this 
process may be held hostage to forming a government coalition at 
the national level.  SPS may also be the kingmaker on the local 
level.  The elections' "losers" the Radicals and Kostunica's DSS 
are still in a powerful position to be in power in a number of 
Serbia's important cities.  A national deal between Tadic's 
coalition and the Socialists will go a long way toward reducing 
the Radicals' and DSS's ability to succeed.  End Comment. 
MUNTER