VZCZCXRO9893
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0461/01 1301553
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091553Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0270
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0381

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000461 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: MAY 11 ELECTION PRIMER 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 206, B) BELGRADE 450, C) BELGRADE 452 
 
BELGRADE 00000461  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Serbian citizens in Serbia and Serbs in Kosovo will 
head to the polls on May 11 to elect a new Serbian Parliament 
and local municipal assemblies.  The main contenders for the 
national parliament are the Democratic Party and the Serbian 
Radical Party's tickets, but either party would need at least 
two additional coalition partners to form a government, 
according to the latest poll numbers.  At the national level, 
the elections are likely to be followed by weeks of political 
haggling between potential coalition partners resulting in 
continued dysfunction.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
How to Elect a Serbian Parliament 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) Serbia's Parliament is a single chamber of 250 MPs, with 
the whole territory of Serbia comprising a single electoral 
district. (The Government of Serbia includes Kosovo in this 
territory.)  A total of 22 political parties or coalitions are 
running in the parliamentary elections, including 10 from 
minority communities.  Each electoral ticket can submit a list 
of up to 250 candidates, and the electorate votes for one 
specific party list by secret ballot.  A ticket must gain at 
least 5% of the total turnout to receive any seats.  Minority 
parties only require 0.4% of the vote to obtain a seat in 
parliament.  Parties then choose which candidates from their 
lists will fill the seats they win.  The Republican Electoral 
Commission (RIK) is to announce results by midnight May 15. 
Afterwards, the Parliament convenes after the parties and the 
RIK confirm at least two-thirds of MPs.  Parliament must convene 
within 30 days of the certification of election results and 
begin the process of forming a new government.  The installed 
Parliament then has 90 days to confirm a government. 
 
 
 
End of Campaign and Opening of Polls 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) The parties concluded their final campaign rallies on May 
¶8.  The approximately 8,000 polls will open at 7 am on May 11 
and close at 8 pm. As of May 9, there is a media blackout on 
campaigning in effect until the closing of polls.  There are 6.7 
million registered voters in Serbia and the diaspora.  The 
Election Commission allows absentee voting and at the last 
minute swamped embassies with visa applications for hundreds of 
elections observers to monitor the diaspora voting; 114 
observers are going to the United States alone. 
 
 
 
A Snapshot of the Contenders 
 
---------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) Serbia's current Parliament has been in office since 
February 2007.  President Boris Tadic called for new elections 
on March 13 after ongoing gridlock between Tadic's Democratic 
Party (DS) and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic 
Party of Serbia (DSS) over differences regarding Serbia's 
European integration and the government's response to Kosovo's 
declaration of independence (ref A).  The main contenders are 
the western-leaning "For a European Serbia" coalition ticket and 
the nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS), but neither party 
is likely to secure a majority of seats (refs B, C).  Smaller 
parties such as the DSS, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), 
and the strongly pro-European Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
could be decisive in forming any future coalition government. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) According to the latest May 8 poll, the SRS ticket has 
35% and the "For a European Serbia" Coalition has 32%.  The 
DSS-New Serbia Party ticket polled 14%, LDP 8%, and SPS 8%.  No 
two likely coalition parties would have a majority based on 
these numbers.  Two likely results are a coalition of the 
 
BELGRADE 00000461  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Radicals with DSS and SPS or a coalition of "For a European 
Serbian" coalition with LDP and SPS.  Most likely, parties will 
require the full 90 days after Parliament convenes to form the 
new government. 
 
 
 
Vojvodina Provincial and Local Elections 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) There are 120 deputies in the Vojvodina Assembly, 
Serbia's autonomous province, which has a measure of 
self-government under the 2006 constitution.  Half of the MPs 
are elected on the basis of proportional representation, with 
voters choosing parties, and half are elected by majority in 
electoral units. 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) Voters will also choose deputies in 24 city and 150 
municipal assemblies.  New in the Electoral Law this year, 
voters will no longer choose mayors directly.  After the 
elections, the new municipal assemblies will choose a mayor. 
Critics view this as a blow to decentralization, enabling the 
parties in Belgrade to control the municipalities.  Proponents 
argue that mayors and the majority in the municipal assembly 
will be from the same party, ensuring smoother functioning of 
municipal governments. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) If the poll numbers are correct, neither SRS nor DS 
could pull together a coalition without including at least two 
additional parties.  The "For a European Serbia" coalition with 
LDP and SPS is particularly problematic given that the latter 
two claim to refuse to be in government together.  With all the 
campaign rhetoric of the past weeks and the parties' increasing 
polarization, any resulting coalition partners will be strange 
bedfellows, resulting most likely in another, probably 
short-lived, dysfunctional government.  End Comment. 
MUNTER