VZCZCXRO7169
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0450/01 1280853
ZNR UUUUU ZZH ZDK
R 070853Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0255
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGDA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0364

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000450 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: DEMOCRATS AND RADICALS STILL NECK AND NECK 
 
REF: BELGRADE 426 
 
BELGRADE 00000450  001.4 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Serbia's radical and democratic parties are still 
running neck-and-neck toward the May 11 parliamentary elections. 
 Despite tabloid press reports showing the democratic coalition 
with a small lead over the Radicals, more accurate polling data 
shows the Radicals maintaining its slight lead.  President 
Tadic's Democratic Party is counting on a bump up in support 
following the April 29 signing a Stabilization and Association 
Agreement with the European Union, but there is no reliable data 
yet to see if this move bore fruit.  With more pronouncements 
about which parties will "never work with x" than who will work 
with each other, the next government of the Republic of Serbia, 
even if the pro-Europe coalition wins, is likely to be largely 
dysfunctional.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Radicals Slightly in the Lead 
 
----------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) According to Strategic Marketing's current data 
(conducted April 28-May 1) the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leads 
with 33.2% of the vote to the Democratic Party's (DS) 31.5% -- a 
less than 2% difference.  The Democratic Party of Serbia - New 
Serbia coalition (DSS-NS) is polling at 13.8%, and the Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) and Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) each 
have 7.5% of the vote. Minority parties share 4.5%. (Strategic 
Marketing's Director Srdjan Bogosavljevic discounted and 
publicly corrected incomplete Strategic Marketing polling 
results leaked on May 5 that set DS at 35.5% to SRS's 32.8% and 
DSS's 17.3%.) 
 
 
 
Democratic Party Optimistic of an SAA "Bounce" 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) DS maintains that the Stabilization and Association 
Agreement (SAA) increased its numbers.  Parliament Speaker 
Oliver Dulic (DS) told poloff on May 5 that the signing of the 
SAA provided the DS "a big boost" and that he was "extremely 
optimistic" about the election.  Without citing a specific data 
source, Dulic said the DS was now polling almost 40%, two points 
higher than the Radicals. (We suspect rounding:  Dulic's foreign 
policy advisor Lidija Bartus-Vasiljevic quoted Dulic as pegging 
DS at 37.5%.)  "Without any big mistakes over the next several 
days, we [the DS] should be okay," Dulic said.  At a separate 
event on May 5, a bouyant and confident Foreign Minister Vuk 
Jeremic (DS) told poloff (unofficialy at the Israeli National 
Day reception) that the SAA had given the DS the edge it needed, 
polarizing the electorate, or at least the candidates, and 
giving the voters a real choice.  Jeremic claimed a three-point 
bounce from the signing of the SAA, appearantly citing the 
erroneous Strategic Marketing data. 
 
 
 
Impact of SAA Unclear to Pollsters 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The International Republican Institute's (IRI) David 
Bell (AMCIT) told poloff on May 5 that the polls immediately 
following the SAA signing showed "no impact."  In Belgrade over 
78% of respondents were aware of the SAA signing.  Of these, 
only 55% believed it was good for Serbia -- this, despite 
polling indicating that over 80% of Serbians want the country to 
join the European Union.  Party support was unchanged.  Bell 
thought the meaning of the SAA "had not sunk in yet."  The 
impact of the SAA, he said, might not be known until May 11. 
Bogosavljevic agreed that current polling had not yet reflected 
the impact of the SAA. 
 
 
 
BELGRADE 00000450  002.4 OF 002 
 
 
 
Parties Hardening Position on Coalitions 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U) Support for the SAA signing appears to be a litmus test 
for some politicians in selecting potential partners in 
hypothetical government coalitions.  New Serbia leader Velimir 
Ilic told the daily tabloid "Press" on May 4 that the signing of 
the SAA meant "the end of any cooperation with [the DS]....  Our 
pre-condition is that post-election coalitions cannot be 
negotiated with traitors who violate the constitution and sell 
out Kosovo and Metohija," "Press" quoted Ilic.  Ilic said that 
talks with parties who wished to preserve Kosovo as a part of 
Serbia would take place after the elections. 
 
¶6. (U) DS caucus head Nada Kolundzija told "Press" on May 5 that 
the DS would not negotiate a coalition government with DSS-NS. 
"Velimir Ilic says he won't go with DS, but the truth is we 
won't go with them.  We will not make coalitions with forces 
that want to isolate Serbia from Europe, and Ilic's party is one 
of those," Kolundzija said.  Asked about a possible 
post-election coalition with the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) 
Kolundzija said SPS had not yet made its stance towards EU 
clear, so DS had not ruled out a coalition with the Socialists. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In fact, DS insiders speculated privately about the 
utility and likelihood of a DS-SPS deal.  FM Jeremic told poloff 
that he expected the DS to win and to form a government with 
either SPS or LDP or both, although the prospect of SPS and LDP 
accepting one another as coalition partners he acknowledged to 
be slim.  A likely scenario would have one in the government and 
the other supporting in parliament.  Jeremic said that he could 
not envision another DS-DSS coalition.  Bartus-Vasiljevic quoted 
Dulic's certainty that DS would go into a coalition with SPS, 
and said that SPS presidential candidate Milutin Mrkonjic would 
become Speaker of the Parliament. 
 
 
 
Socialists Swing 
 
---------------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) SPS is hedging their bets and, at least in public, 
leaving open the possibility of joining an SRS government. 
Privately, they are less keen about that option, but reluctant 
to lose votes of their more hard-line members.  The party is 
directing its social justice agenda toward Serbia's 1.6 million 
pensioners, 500,000 citizens lacking medical insurance, and one 
million unemployed.  SPS leader Ivica Dacic, told poloff on 
April 30 that party leadership wanted to change public 
perception of SPS, from the party of Milosevic to the party of 
Serbia's left.  Dacic said that SPS expected to take at least 7% 
of the vote on May 11 and hoped to participate in Serbia's next 
government, whether DS- or SRS- dominated, with the Social 
Welfare and Labor Ministry being the party's logical cabinet 
seat.  That said, alliance with either party posed problems for 
SPS, Dacic said.  SRS, he said, wished to steal SPS members, and 
SPS participation in an SRS coalition would eventually realize 
that goal.  On the other hand, the SPS would also be 
hard-pressed to join forces with the DS if the LDP were part of 
the coalition. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Although the two most likely scenarios remain the SRS 
with DSS or the DS with LDP either coalition would require SPS 
support, making the election too tough to call.  Though the 
pro-Europe coalition remains the better option for Serbia's 
democratic development, it still remains a largely dysfunctional 
option.  End Comment. 
MUNTER