VZCZCXRO7002
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHPW RUEHROV RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHAH #0694/01 1511147
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301147Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0917
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 3848
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1666
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 1533
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL PRIORITY 2102
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000694 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, OES 
ANKARA FOR AGRICULTURAL COUNSELOR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EAGR ECON SENV TX
SUBJECT: EXPERTS DOUBT NIYAZOV'S GRAND "TURKMEN LAKE" PROJECT WILL 
COME TO FRUITION 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Turkmenistan's plan to construct a man-made lake 
in the desert to collect agricultural run-off water, initiated under 
former President Niyazov, is both ambitious and controversial.  It 
has triggered fears of long-term ecological implications throughout 
Central Asia.  Although President Berdimuhamedov appears to be 
continuing the project, he has avoided publicity on progress of the 
construction.  Experts, both local and international, doubt the 
Turkmen Lake project will ever come to fruition.  Berdimuhamedov 
appears to be well aware of the lake's drawbacks, including its 
potential to become a source of friction in future years with 
Uzbekistan.  Our assessment is that until the government discovers 
how to exit from a project that does not make sense, it may remain 
on autopilot -- moving mechanically forward, but at a snail's pace. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
HISTORY OF THE PROJECT 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Central Asia's growing population and old-fashioned, 
wasteful irrigation techniques have resulted in greater competition 
for water in Central Asia.  This is especially true in Turkmenistan, 
the driest of the five Central Asian nations.  To confront its own 
water challenges, the Government of Turkmenistan in October 2002 
launched an ambitious, controversial twenty-year project to create a 
gigantic man-made lake in the Karashor Depression in northwestern 
Turkmenistan.  According to local press reports, the Golden Age 
("Altyn Asyr"), or Turkmen Lake was to encompass 3,460 square 
kilometers, and was to be filled with agricultural waste water from 
the country's agricultural zones. 
 
TWO COMPETING SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Turkmenistan's government has argued that building the 
lake will help to reuse the runoff and at the same time improve 
water quality in the Amu Darya, the largest river in Central Asia, 
which flows through eastern Turkmenistan.  Paltamed Esenov, Director 
of the Desert Institute under the Ministry of Nature Protection of 
Turkmenistan, said about eight billion cubic meters of water 
polluted with agricultural chemicals enters the Amu Darya every year 
and is the primary cause of salinity and land degradation 
downstream.  Officials have estimated that up to ten billion cubic 
meters of water is lost through irrigation each year, but the lake 
could provide an alternative to the Amu Darya, and would reduce 
water logging and other degradation to the land. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) However, international experts have expressed serious 
concern that the lake would reduce the volume of the Amu Darya, and 
ultimately of the Aral Sea, where the water volume has already 
shrunk some 90 percent, to 115 billion cubic meters.  Vladimir 
Dukhovny, director of the Tashkent-based Central Asian Institute for 
Water Issues, downplayed concerns.  "Turkmenistan can't get any more 
water than agreements permit."  (NOTE: According to an interstate 
agreement signed in the early 1990's by the countries through which 
the Amu Darya flows, Turkmenistan's share of river water is 21.4 
billion cubic meters.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In theory, the plan to fill the lake with runoff means 
that the lake should not need extra water from the Amu Darya River 
or any other source.  However, critics of the plan doubt that runoff 
water alone would be sufficient to fill the lake, and they worry 
that additional water would have to be diverted from the Amu Darya. 
A local water specialist who works for the agency responsible for 
designing the Turkmen Lake, the Turkmen Water Research and 
Engineering Institute (please protect), confirmed that there is not 
enough drainage water to send to the lake.  According to the 
specialist, most farm fields are not designed to promote drainage of 
irrigation water and much is lost through evaporation.  Existing 
agricultural drainage channels also frequently become clogged with 
silt and other detritus.  The contact said that in Lebap province 
the Water Ministry has diverted water from the Amu Darya in the past 
to speed the water flow into the main drainage system.  The 
specialist questioned the lake project's water-saving value. 
 
ASHGABAT 00000694  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) According to EU-TACIS Country Representative Michael 
Wilson (please protect), Turkmen Lake is likely to have only a 
modestly positive effect on drainage, and would actually damage the 
environment, because pollution would not be eliminated, but rather, 
just be relocated from one area to another.  Wilson added that the 
technology to be used for building the 720-kilometer trans-national 
drainage canal that will transport water to the lake is "primitive" 
because it will not include any filtration measures.  Wilson also 
warned that the cost of infrastructure and necessary nature 
protection measures would make the project financially impractical. 
 
"OUR LAKE WILL WORK" 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Such arguments did not stop Niyazov from going ahead with 
the project.  Initially, the cost of the project spread over twenty 
years was estimated at $4.5 billion, but Niyazov -- wanting to 
double wheat and cotton crops -- in 2003 agreed to increase the 
investment to $8-10 billion to complete his lake by 2010.  To that 
end, he signed multi-million-dollar contracts with Case, Caterpillar 
and Komatsu companies for hundreds of heavy-duty earthmoving 
equipment. 
 
BERDIMUHAMEDOV REMAINING LOW KEY ABOUT THE PROJECT 
 
¶9.  (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov appears to be committed to 
promoting his predecessor's plans for the lake project.  The 
government has continued to purchase additional heavy equipment for 
the project, recently signing a long-term agreement for 200 pieces 
of Komatsu equipment to be delivered annually for the next seven 
years in support of the lake's construction.  Nevertheless, he has 
avoided making public statements about the lake and has raised the 
project only once, in an April 4, 2008 congratulatory letter to the 
personnel of the Ministry of Water. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) COMMENT: Experts, both local and international, doubt the 
Turkmen Lake project will ever come to fruition.  Local observers 
believe the construction of the Turkmen Lake was Niyazov's fantasy 
raised to the rank of national project.  Most people we talked with 
seem to believe that Berdimuhamedov is well aware of the lake's 
drawbacks, including its potential to become a source of friction in 
future years with Uzbekistan, the next downstream user.  As with so 
many of Niyazov's brainchildren, however, the challenge for 
Berdimuhamedov's government is how to exit gracefully from a project 
that does not make sense, and until Berdimuhamedov is prepared to 
focus on that challenge, the project may remain on autopilot -- 
moving mechanically forward, but at a snail's pace.  END COMMENT. 
 
CURRAN