VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0669/01 1350921
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140921Z MAY 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8922
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8267
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9510

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000669 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: THE SICHUAN EARTHQUAKE IN CHINA; BURMA 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage May 14 on the rescue efforts in the Sichuan earthquake in 
China.  In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" tried to shed lights on the 
"rise of China" from the Chinese government's response to various 
incidents, including the Tibetan uprising and the Sichuan 
earthquake.  An op-ed in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" 
commented that the manner in which China manages the Sichuan 
earthquake affects how its global image will be shaped and how 
cross-Strait relations will develop in the future.  A column in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" criticized the Burmese government's 
ruthlessness and speculated on the possibility of "regime change" 
with the delivery of humanitarian aid from the United States 
military.  End summary. 
 
¶2. The Sichuan Earthquake 
 
A) "A Natural Disaster Challenges the Chinese Communists' Capability 
and Confidence" 
 
Chen Hsin-chih, Associate Professor in the Department of Political 
Science at Taiwan's National Cheng Kung University, opined in the 
centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (5/14): 
 
"Mainland China has suffered major natural disasters within a short 
period of time, including the snowstorm in central China at the 
beginning of this year and the current earthquake in Wenchuan county 
of Sichuan Province.  The Beijing Olympics, which starts its 
countdown soon, will also face challenges that affect national 
dignity.  However, judging from appearances so far, unexpected 
natural disasters do not impede the Mainland China's normalization 
of relations with neighboring countries.  The Mainland China 
authorities' transparency, being swift in releasing the news, is 
also fresh and new to people and demonstrates its image of being a 
big country with confidence.  The way [in which China] handles [the 
Sichuan earthquake] is not the same way in which [China] handled the 
Tangshan Earthquake [in 1976] 32 years ago.  A China that is 
confident and consolidating its strength will bring new 
opportunities and challenges to cross-Strait relations. ... 
 
"Mainland China still faces a bottleneck in that its infrastructure 
is not sufficient and its integral quality needs to be improved. 
For a long time, even though it is going to pompously hold the 
Beijing Olympic Games in the near future, the Chinese Communists 
from time to time face unexpected and challenging natural disasters. 
 If Mainland China works through a series of internal and external 
challenges, a Chinese Communists regime with capability and high 
confidence will be a respectable opponent in cross-Strait 
negotiations in the future.  Let us prepare well and wait and see." 
 
B) "Talk About the Rise of China From the Sichuan Earthquake" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (5/14): 
 
"... [China] blocked all information on the conditions during the 
Tangshan Earthquake [in 1976] and only released the official 
estimate of the death toll, amounting to 240,000, three years later. 
 Comparing with the previous time, it is definitely totally 
different that [China] shows the condition of the [Sichuan 
earthquake] on TV and releases estimates of casualties from time to 
time.  From [way in which China] blocked news of the Tangshan 
Earthquake to the open handling of the Sichuan earthquake reveals 
China's change. 
 
"The Tibetan incident [in March] is relatively thorny to the Beijing 
regime.  The casualties of an earthquake can be revealed by 
statistical numbers.  The rift in the Tibetan society cannot be 
measured, however.  ...  If China's open release of information on 
the [Sichuan] earthquake is regarded as [China's] willingness to 
receive internal and external comments, however, [China's] inability 
to explain the incidents in Tibet from the beginning to the end 
demonstrates that [China] has not found a resolution that is 
convincing both inside and outside [China].  The information control 
during the incident in Tibet is like the management of the Tangshan 
Earthquake.  Making information on the Sichuan earthquake public 
demonstrates that the response of [China's] civil society and the 
[Chinese] government to contingencies have reached certain 
standards.  Based on these, on the road to 'the rise of China,' 
various political shackles that the Chinese Communist regime has 
imposed on its government and civilians will have to be liberated, 
one after the other, in the future. ..." 
 
¶3. Burma 
 
"Burma Might Face Regime Change" 
 
Tu Nien-chung wrote in his weekly column in the mass-circulation 
"Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] (5/14): 
 
 
"... United States Pacific Commander Admiral Timothy Keating has 
arrived in Rangoon with the first [United States] Air Force 
transport aircraft.  Keating's purpose is definitely not limited to 
[providing] aid [to the Burmese victims in Cyclone Nargis].  He will 
negotiate with the [Burmese] junta on how to expand the role of the 
United States military in [humanitarian] relief in Burma.  The 
United States has an embassy in Burma and is able to negotiate with 
the Burmese government on aid.  This time, the large force of the 
United States threatens the [Burmese] border and the Commander 
[Admiral Keating] visits in person.  Although in the name of relief, 
it is in fact tantamount to the gunboat diplomacy, which is 
extremely out of the ordinary. 
 
"The disaster of the cyclone reveals the Burmese junta's 
incompetence and the way it treats civilians as mere pawns.  There 
are 100,000 deaths and two million people destitute and homeless. 
Also, with the breakout of diseases and the soaring of commodity 
prices, the internal and external contradictions in Burma will 
likely become an upheaval.  If an external force receives 
coordination within the country, it is afraid that the junta will be 
kept constantly on the run and fail to cope in the end.  The 
possibility of regime change in Burma surfaces as well." 
 
YOUNG