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Viewing cable 08ABUDHABI562, IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/COMMODITY PRICES - UNITED ARAB

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08ABUDHABI562 2008-05-05 12:16 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Abu Dhabi
VZCZCXRO5360
RR RUEHDE RUEHDIR
DE RUEHAD #0562/01 1261216
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051216Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0926
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 000562 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EEB/TPP/ABT JANET SPECK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL N/A 
TAGS: ECON EAGR EFIN ETRD EAID AE
 
SUBJECT: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/COMMODITY PRICES - UNITED ARAB 
EMIRATES 
 
REF: State 39410 
 
1. Summary: UAE imports 90 percent of its agricultural and food 
product needs. Food prices over the last few years have increased in 
a range around 20 percent. Overall inflation in the UAE is around 10 
percent annually. The UAE Ministry of Economy (MoE) has taken steps 
to curb prices of basic goods, including simplifying imports of 15 
food items, coordinating with supermarkets to freeze prices of 
specified staple food items, establishing a consumer protection 
office, and reportedly developing a national strategy to build 
sustained food reserves. However, these measures have not been 
effective enough to curb soaring prices of basic staples. End 
Summary. 
 
--------------------------- 
Main Food Consumption Goods 
--------------------------- 
 
2. Except for fish, UAE imports an estimated 90 percent of its food 
and agricultural needs, either for further processing or for direct 
consumption. Leading imports include meat, chicken, fish, 
vegetables, fat, cooking oil, eggs, rice, tea, coffee, sugar, canned 
food, milk, flour, bread, yogurts, cheese and beverages. 
 
--------------------- 
Inflationary Pressure 
--------------------- 
 
3. The inflation rate in UAE hit a 19-year high of 9.3 percent in 
2006, and reached over 10 percent in 2007; most analysts forecast 
2008 inflation in the 8-10 percent range. (Note: Union Bank of 
Switzerland is estimating inflation at 11.6pp for 2008, with food 
costs representing a full percentage point, and housing contributing 
8.1pp of the total. End Note.) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) 
relative weight for foodstuffs, beverage and tobacco in UAE is 14.43 
percent, in comparison to 36.14 percent for house rent and related 
housing costs. Between 2003 and 2006, food inflation increased 
nearly 20 percent according to MoE statistics and preliminary 
estimates point to a significant increase in 2007. Asian bans on 
rice exports have been particularly problematic for the UAE in light 
of the high per capita rice consumption. The UAE's peg to the dollar 
has also contributed to the cost of importing food, according to 
local importers. Despite an increase in food prices there has been 
no discernable shift in consumption toward alternative goods as many 
residents in the UAE enjoy high per capita income and a majority of 
lower income consumers are fed directly as part of their employment 
arrangements. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Impact on the Market and Government Policies 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4. The MoE, in coordination with cooperative societies and UAE-based 
cooperative supermarkets, has been taking measures since 2006 to 
curb prices of food goods. In August 2006, MoE eliminated exclusive 
agency agreements on 15 essential food items, enabling importers to 
source directly from suppliers rather than local distributors. The 
goods included dry milk, condensed milk, frozen and canned 
vegetables, children's food, child milk, chicken, cooking oil, rice, 
flour, fish products, meat products, tea and coffee. In March 2008, 
the Union Co-Operative Society in UAE moved to prevent small grocery 
stores from bulk-buying of certain items. The MoE has signed 
agreements with four of the seven emirate cooperative societies to 
freeze the prices of certain essential goods. In addition, two 
hypermarkets have agreed to hold prices of a handful of basic 
foodstuffs at 2007 levels. The MoE has also posted UAE-wide limits 
on prices of key food items and is levying fines of USD 2,750 on 
retailers who exceed posted prices. It is not clear how widespread 
the imposition of fines has been, but many retailers report having 
to justify certain price increases to the government. 
 
5. In March 2008, Jamal Al Saeedi, Executive Director of the 
Emirates Society for Consumer Protection, told the media that the 
UAE Cabinet was studying a proposal to allow UAE nationals to buy 
rice, bread, tea, sugar, milk, butter and other basic food items at 
cost, and the UAE Ministry of Social Affairs would provide nationals 
with cards to use at 16 cooperative supermarkets to be eligible for 
the discount. The proposal is reportedly still under review. 
 
6. Food safety and animal health issues have also contributed to the 
higher cost of foods as avian flu findings among regional suppliers 
have led to import restrictions on eggs and poultry. Nevertheless, 
the UAE Higher Consumer Protection Committee, in its meeting on 
February 6, 2008, rejected poultry company requests to increase the 
price of table eggs by 15 to 20 percent and chicken by 25 to 37 
percent. The Committee decided that the increase in prices should 
 
ABU DHABI 00000562  002 OF 002 
 
 
not exceed 10 percent for table eggs and 12 percent for fresh 
slaughtered chicken. 
 
7. Retailers can offset the cost of freezing certain prices through 
listing fees, supplier concessions, and higher prices on other food 
items. However, local distributors who handle the importation and 
storage of a significant percentage of UAE food supplies find 
themselves squeezed between rising global prices and the MoE price 
mandates. A number have indicated that they may be forced to reduce 
stocks rather than absorb losses. The MoE has reportedly stated that 
it will penalize distributors who reduce stocks, but it is not clear 
how effective this policy will be in the face of rising food prices 
in supplying countries. (Comment: In discussions with the Head of 
the MoE's Consumer Protection Unit, it appears that the UAEG is 
struggling to reconcile the realities of market-driven price 
increases with the desire to control prices through punitive 
measures. End Comment.) On April 24, 2008, UAE Minister of Economy 
Sultan bin Saeed Al Mansouri announced that the UAEG will begin work 
on a national strategy to build sustained food reserves to cope with 
rising global food prices. In addition, the MoE also chairs a 
newly-formed 26 member consumer protection body made up of both 
private sector and government representatives who will review 
matters related to rising food costs and general inflation, and 
other consumer-related issues. 
 
-------------- 
Public Protest 
-------------- 
 
8. There have been no public protests or violence related to food 
prices except for various labor strikes protesting low salaries in 
general. 
 
Quinn