VZCZCXRO4036
RR RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0138 1130102
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 220102Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5195
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1654
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 5159
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0663
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000138 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: LABOUR HAS DOMINATED THE STAGE, BUT NOT THE POLLS 
 
¶1. (SBU) For the past month, Labour has dominated the stage and the 
headlines in New Zealand: talk of prospective tax cuts; a refusal to 
authorize sale of Auckland Airport shared to a Canadian investor; 
the Beijing signing of the FTA; and then the Party Congress.  After 
all of that the One News-Colmar Brunton poll (New Zealand's most 
prominent) did not make for pleasant reading at Labour Party HQ.  It 
showed that National (54% - up four points) had edged further ahead 
of Labour which remained steady at 35%.  National's leader, John Key 
maintained his comfortable margin over Prime Minister Helen Clark as 
the nation's preferred leader 35% to 29% respectively. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The explanation may lie in a vortex of negativity that has 
afflicted Labour since PM Clark signed the FTA with China - first 
there were calls not to sign because of the Tibet protests, and then 
Foreign Minister Winston Peters refused to accept that the landmark 
deal was foreign policy and said he would not support this effort of 
Labour trade policy.  The party Congress, which focused on 
organizing the party for the upcoming election, the following 
weekend proved to be a PR disaster.  Media coverage of the Labour 
Party Congress was dominated by protests outside the venue, 
accusations of a furtive planned circumvention of campaign spending 
rules endorsed by Labour's beleaguered President Mike Williams, and 
a derisive political song parody delivered by Labour MPs mocking 
Key, all of which turned off viewers and cast a pall over Labour. 
 
¶3. (SBU) At first it appeared that Labour could take solace in a 3 
News-TNS poll because it showed that not only had National lost 3 
points lower not to 48%, but Labour gained 3 points up now to 38%. 
Labour could have taken further comfort from the poll's finding that 
Clark's gained 4 points in personal voting to bring her to 32%, 
whereas Key dropped 6 points to 29%.  However, we have learned that 
the 3 News-TNS poll was conducted before the controversial Labour 
Party Congress, which may explain its more favorable results. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Comment. Many media pundits have been increasingly critical 
of National and John Key for letting Labour dominate the agenda, but 
National may be wondering whether it would not be smarter to allow 
Labour to continue defeating itself. End Comment. 
 
Keegan