VZCZCXYZ0025
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWL #0126 1001950
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091950Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5178

UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR IIP/T/ES (RADAMS); IIP/T/SV; EAP/PD - GMCLOUGHLIN; EAP/ANP 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KPAO NZ
 
SUBJECT: DVC Request for "Climate Change and Security Planning for 
the Future" Seminar 
 
 
¶1. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION: Post requests a DVC with Marc Levy, CIESIBN, 
Columbia University. 
 
¶2. Preferred Activity Date, Fiscal Year, and Quarter: FY09 program, 
November 13; 1st quarter; Washington time, November 13 at 5.00pm. 
This is November 14, 9.00am NZ time. 
 
¶3. PROGRAM JUSTIFICATION: Recently-published studies draw attention 
to the fact that climate change poses a number of security 
challenges in terms of both a narrow and an extended definition of 
security. A comprehensive data analysis of the period 1950 to 2000 
undertaken by the conveners of this seminar indicates that natural 
disasters significantly increase the risk of violent civil conflict. 
This applies both to geological (earthquakes and volcanic eruptions) 
and climate-related disasters. Case-based evidence alternatively 
suggests that climate-related disasters can sometimes provide the 
incentives and means to address long-standing societal conflict 
effectively. 
 
These linkages have not received the academic and policy attention 
that they deserve. In view of the expected increase in natural 
hazards caused by the effects of climate change in coming years and 
decades, it is both opportune and imperative to draw together 
experts in the field to explore the dynamics of how climate change 
impacts domestic and transnational security concerns such as violent 
competition for scarce resources, and conflict caused by the 
population displacement. The South Pacific is particularly 
vulnerable, as climate change is bound to have significant 
dislocating effects that may exacerbate deep and persistent social 
tensions. 
 
A discussion of these interactions is important in order to devise 
ways of mitigating the negative social consequences of climate 
change and explore the opportunities provided to enhance security. 
Furthermore, adaptation to the effects of climate change is fast 
becoming a prominent international focus in the post-Bali 
international context. This changing focus makes it particularly 
important to explore the linkages between climate change and 
security in order that appropriate and well-informed policies can be 
adopted in New Zealand and the region. 
 
This DVC would be part of planned seminar being run by NZ's leading 
climate change experts, which will explore these issues. It will be 
led by a number of experts in the field and attended by participants 
involved in public-policy formulation and implementation and in the 
field of human security in general.  It will be a useful tool to 
make sure that the societal dangers and opportunities posed by 
climate change are placed on the public agenda. 
 
Post would welcome the opportunity to discuss the impact of climate 
change with Dr. Levy. 
 
¶4. Audience Expected:  Members of the New Zealand government, 
security analysts, climate change experts and policy-makers, 
economists, and think-tankers. 
 
¶5. MSP THEME AND EXPECTED AUDIENCE: MSP GOAL 09-01 - Mutual 
Understanding. 
 
¶6. NAME OF SPECIALIST REQUIRED: 
Marc Levy, Deputy Director CIESIN, Columbia University, NY. 
 
¶7. Contact Details: CIESIN (Center for International Earth Science 
Information Network) 
61 Route 9W 
PO Box 1000 
Palisades, NY 10964 
 
Fax:  845-365-8922    Ph: 845-365-8988 
email: mlevy@ciesin.columbia.edu 
 
¶8. POST PROJECT OFFICER: Christine Vivian 
Office phone: 644-462-6112; Fax: 644-499-0490 
Email: cvivian@actrix.gen.nz / vivianc@state.gov 
 
TECHNICAL OFFICER: Ola Thorsen 
Office phone: 644-462-6015, Fax: 644-499-0490 
Cell: 6427-451-2535 
Email: thorsenO@state.gov 
 
LOCATION AND TELEPHONE NUMBERS: Venue/phone numbers to be advised. 
Please advise soonest.  Many thanks. 
MCCORMICK