VZCZCXRO8851
RR RUEHKW
DE RUEHWR #0457/01 1011446
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101446Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6277
INFO RUEHKW/AMCONSUL KRAKOW 2064

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000457 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR G/OES, EUR/NCE, S/P 
OES FOR DROCHBERG 
NCE FOR LLOCHMAN, BPUTNEY AND TYEAGER 
S/P FOR HPITTMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP SENV ECON ENRG PREL PL
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF UNDERSECRETARY DOBRIANSKY 
 
REF: WARSAW 442 
 
 ¶1.  Welcome to Poland.  You are coming to Poland at a time 
when the Polish government is eagerly looking forward to 
hosting the 14th session of the United Nations Conference on 
Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP 14).  More than 
10,000 participants from over 190 countries are expected to 
attend the conference, at which Poland hopes to play a role 
in forging a new global framework on climate change.  At the 
same time, Poland is facing painful choices in developing its 
own climate change policies. 
 
¶2.  Your visit coincides with the visit of a Presidential 
delegation, headed by Secretary Chertoff, to the 65th 
anniversary commemoration of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. 
During your time in Warsaw you will see first-hand a country 
that values its continuing close ties with the U.S. while it 
is rebuilding relationships with neighbors and the EU. 
 
¶3.  PM Donald Tusk is riding a wave of popular support in 
Poland.  Tusk recently finished his first 100 days in office, 
after his party, Civic Platform (PO) trounced the Law and 
Justice Party (PiS) in October 2007 snap elections.  PO has 
brought greater stability to Polish politics after two rocky 
years under a fractious coalition led by former PM Jaroslaw 
Kaczynski.  Tusk has, at best, a tenuous cohabitation with 
President Lech Kaczynski, Jaroslaw's identical twin.  This is 
not only attributable to family politics, but runs deeper to 
political fissures in the Solidarity generation of 
politicians, and the Polish constitution, which is 
purposefully vague in terms of delineation of authority 
betweeN Prime Minister and President. 
 
¶4.  In their meeting on March 10, President Bush and PM Tusk 
discussed the possibility of placing missile interceptor 
sites in norther Poland, as part of our overall Missile 
Defense initiative.  Negotiations over MD and modernizing 
Polish security forces are the top items in our bilateral 
agenda.  Our economic agenda is changing as the country's 
economy soars.  Rather than dealing with investment problems, 
we are increasingly able to hold strategic discussions on 
global issues affecting the U.S. and Poland.  As you drive 
through Warsaw you will see signs of Poland's booming 
economy, which grew 6.5% last year.  U.S. companies consider 
Poland a good place to do business. 
 
¶5.  You will be meeting with Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, 
who we understand you know well from his time in Washington, 
DC.  Sikorski served in the previous Law and Justice 
government as the Minister of Defense, until a spectacular 
falling out with PM Kaczynski.  Sikorski's defection to Civic 
Platform and his recent appointment as Minister of Foreign 
Affairs was splashy evidence of the tensions between 
President Lech Kaczynski and PM Tusk's new government. 
Sikorski immediately agreed to your meeting when it was 
raised personally by Ambassador Ashe, and said he looks 
forward to discussing the Community of Democracies project. 
That initiative was a joint American-Polish effort that was 
launched by then Secretary Albright's visit to Poland in 
¶2000.  Sikorski told us that the MFA had identified a Polish 
diplomat to lead a new Polish office, and that he approved 
funding for the initiative.  Under Minister Sikorski and PM 
Tusk Poland has continued its leadership in promoting 
democracy in Cuba, Belarus, Ukraine, and Georgia, and is 
pushing the EU to pay attention to these issues. 
 
¶6.  Maciej Nowicki, the Minister of Environment, is leading 
the Polish government's delegation to COP 14 and preparation 
for the meeting.  An environmental engineer, he has been a 
key figure in the Polish environmental movement since the 
fall of communism, and  is widely respected in Poland.  He 
recently told us that he believes global programs such as the 
Kyoto Protocol are of limited use in combating climate 
change.  He is more appreciative than many of his European 
colleagues of U.S. programs in the climate change area, such 
as regulations setting automotive fuel efficiency standards, 
and the phasing out of incandescent light bulbs.  He also 
noted several times that he believes harnessing solar energy 
is the ultimate solution to energy and climate change 
problems. 
 
¶7.  Deputy PM and Minister of Economy Pawlak is 
responsibility for economic policy under the government's 
coalition agreement.  Deputy PM Pawlak is chairman of the 
Polish People's Party and previously served as PM twice - in 
1992 and from 1993 to 1995.  He was also responsible for 
energy security issues until PM Tusk recently appointed a 
commission, headed by a member of his office, to coordinate 
 
WARSAW 00000457  002 OF 002 
 
 
GOP efforts to improve its energy security.  Energy security 
is considered a national security issue in Poland.  At 
present, Poland is dependent on Russia for oil and gas.  To 
lessen this dependence, the Polish government is supporting a 
number of energy infrastructure programs: an LNG terminal at 
Swinoujscie, on the Baltic coast; a gas pipeline from Norway 
through Denmark to Poland; membership in a regional 
consortium to build a 1,200 MW nuclear power plant in 
Ignalina, Lithuania; and underground petroleum reserve 
storage in salt caverns. 
 
¶8.  Any analysis of Poland's energy and climate change 
policies begins with the fact that the nation is heavily 
dependent on coal.  Poland's coal deposits are among the 
largest in Europe and coal is responsible for over 90% of the 
electric power generated in the country.  The current 
government would like to leverage those resources and ensure 
its energy security by investing in new clean coal 
technologies.  Currently Poland is responsible for emitting a 
disproportionate amount of greenhouse gasses.  In 2004, 
Poland produced only $822 of GDP per metric ton of CO2 
emitted -- the second lowest figure for GDP per ton in the 
European Union, and less than half the amount of GDP per 
metric ton produced in the U.S.  Poland achieved dramatic 
growth in GDP during the 1990's while greenhouse emissions 
fell.  However, this was due more to closing inefficient, 
highly polluting industrial facilities inherited from the 
communist regime than the development of green technologies. 
 
¶9.  Poland's dependence on greenhouse gas-intensive energy is 
causing problems in complying with the European Union's 
Emission Trading Scheme (ETS).  In March 2007, the European 
Commission allocated Poland only 208.5 million tons of CO2 
emissions for the years 2008-2012, nearly 27% less than 
Poland requested.  The Polish government appealed the 
allocation to the European Court of Justice, and a verdict is 
pending.  The 27% cut in CO2 emissions will have a strong 
negative impact on Polish industries, especially energy 
production, cement plants, and steel mills.  Moreover, ETS 
mandates require Polish industries to purchase 100% of their 
emission permits beginning in 2013.  Minister Nowicki 
believes that this will cost Poland 5 billion euros per year, 
raising energy prices by 50% to 70%. 
 
¶10.  Poland is also struggling to develop renewable energy 
sources.  As you know, in March 2007, the EU set mandates for 
renewable energy use in each member state.  Under these 
mandates, renewable energy sources are to account for 15% of 
Poland's energy consumption by 2020, up from 7.2% in 2005. 
Progress toward meeting the mandates has been slow in Poland. 
 The Ministry of Economy prepared a long-term program for 
promoting renewable fuels that was adopted by the Kaczynski 
government in July 2007.  The plan calls for excise tax 
exemptions and corporate income tax reduction for use of 
renewable fuels, investment support for growing energy crops 
designated for biofuel production, creating zones accessible 
only to ecological public transport, and preference in public 
tenders for biofuel powered vehicles.  So far, the program 
does not appear to have produced measurable results. 
 
¶11.   The U.S. government has been engaged in promoting green 
technologies in Poland.  The Environmental Protection Agency 
is currently working with the Polish government under the 
Methane to Markets partnership to exploit coal mine and 
landfill methane for energy production.  A wind farm, built 
in part with funding from the U.S. Trade and Development 
Agency, is scheduled to open later this year at Slupsk on the 
Baltic coast.  The previous government was interested in 
joining DOE's FutureGen project, and Deputy PM Pawlak has 
repeatedly stated publicly that Poland needs to implement 
clean coal technologies. 
 
¶12.  One issue that is inevitably raised in any discussion 
with Polish government officials is visas.  The Tusk 
government has somewhat downplayed the issue, but the subject 
was back in the news last month when Canada announced that it 
is dropping its visa requirements for Polish citizens and we 
announced we were moving forward on the process to add some 
of Poland's neighbors to the Visa Waiver Program (VWP). 
Government officials are aware that the visa waiver 
legislation is Congressionally mandated but will take the 
opportunity of your visit to press their case.  Poles deeply 
resent the current visa law. 
 
ASHE