VZCZCXRO9753
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #0226/01 1021038
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111038Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2157
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0203
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000226 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON MCAP ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - April 11, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Official: Opposition Recommendations Constructive (para. 2) 
- Opposition Youth Banned From Traveling to Poland (para. 3) 
- Former Prisoner to Found Radiation Safety Center (para. 4) 
- Prosecutor Extends Investigation into Disappearances (para. 5) 
- Belarusian TV Broadcast in North America (para. 6) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Belarusians to Pay More for Utilities This Year (para. 7) 
- GDP Grows 10.5 Per Cent in First Quarter (para. 8) 
 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
- MFA Releases 2007 Report On Arms Sales Abroad (para. 9) 
- Beer Imports Rise Dramatically (para. 10) 
- Trade Deficit with Russia May Reach USD 12 Billion (para. 11) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 12) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Official: Opposition Recommendations Constructive 
 
Secretary of the Central Election Commission (CEC) Nikolay Lozovik 
 
SIPDIS 
announced April 7 that he considered the six recommendations that 
the United Democratic Forces' (UDF) proposed to improve 
implementation of electoral regulations "generally constructive" and 
added that the CEC will "thoroughly study" them.  For Free and Fair 
Elections Campaign Coordinator Viktor Korniyenko maintained that 
current electoral laws were not "perfect," but it was not "realistic 
to amend them" before parliamentary elections scheduled for 
September 2008.  The UDF's proposals focus on improving "society's 
political standards" and proposed changes to the formation of 
precinct electoral commissions and their members' duties, 
registration of observers and their rights, ballot-counting 
procedures, rules for media coverage of the campaign, and 
campaigning procedures. 
 
¶3.  Opposition Youth Banned From Traveling to Poland 
 
Malady Front (MF) opposition youth Anastasiya Palazhanka was banned 
April 5 from traveling to Poland.  Border guards ejected her from a 
train on its way to Warsaw allegedly because she is the subject of 
an ongoing criminal investigation opened March 14.  Palazhanka 
maintained the police did not notify her of any charges against her 
and the border guards "had false information."  Several leading MF 
activists have already been banned from traveling abroad. 
 
¶4.  Former Prisoner to Found Radiation Safety Center 
 
Prominent researcher and former political prisoner Yuriy 
Bandozhevskiy announced plans April 4 to establish an international 
center for ecology, health, and radiation safety.  The 
Lithuanian-backed center will conduct research and provide medical 
assistance to people in Belarus and the Baltic States living in 
areas where the death rate significantly exceeds the birth rate due 
to environmental factors.  Bandozhevskiy noted the center will 
coordinate efforts to help Chernobyl liquidators and their family 
members as well as encourage European NGOs to assist Belarusian 
children affected by various Chernobyl-related conditions. 
 
¶5.  Prosecutor Extends Investigation into Disappearances 
 
On April 8 the Prosecutor General extended for three months its 
nine-year long investigation into the 1999 disappearance of former 
Interior Minister and opposition leader Yuriy Zakharenko.  Lawyer 
Oleg Volchek stated that prosecutors have been extending the 
investigation every three months noting "its results will be further 
delayed."  Volchek expressed no hope that the perpetrators of the 
disappearance will be held criminally accountable and expects the 
investigation to drag on another sixteen years until the case's 
25-year statute of limitations expires. 
 
¶6.  Belarusian TV Broadcast in North America 
 
 
VILNIUS 00000226  002 OF 002 
 
 
Senator and Chairperson of the National TV and Radio Broadcasting 
Company Aleksandr Zimovskiy told reporters April 8 that the GOB's 
decision to begin satellite broadcasting of Belarusian National TV 
in North America was in no way connected with the current diplomatic 
row with the U.S.  Zimovskiy maintained that "Belarus TV would have 
entered the North American market no matter what course 
international relations took."  The channel has been available in 
the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Cuba, Puerto Rico, and Guatemala since 
March 28 in a package with Russian, Ukrainian, and Armenian 
channels. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶7.  Belarusians to Pay More for Utilities This Year 
 
An unnamed high-ranking GOB official told Prime-Tass April 7 that 
utility costs for individuals must be increased by an additional USD 
3 some time this year.  Aleksandr Lukashenko's stated policy of 
limiting utility increases to USD 5 per year will therefore be 
exceeded, as utility fees already rose by that amount January 1. 
Though the increase may seem nominal, it represents roughly one per 
cent of the average Belarusian's monthly salary. 
 
¶8.  GDP Grows 10.5 Per Cent in First Quarter 
 
Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey Sidorskiy announced April 9 that 
the country's GDP grew through March by 10.5 per cent.  According to 
official statistics, industrial output grew 13 per cent and real 
income rose 12 per cent. 
 
------------------- 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
¶9.  MFA Releases 2007 Report On Arms Sales Abroad 
 
On April 8 the Ministry of Foreign Affairs released its 2007 
National Report On Export Control Policies, Export of Armaments and 
Military Equipment.  The report provides general information on 
Belarusian arms trade with 50 countries.  Eighty-two Belarusian 
companies had arms export licenses, including eight new companies 
registered in 2007.  The GOB issued 250 licenses for import and 
export of armaments in 2007.  Military analyst Aleksandr Alesin 
noted that the structure of Belarus' arms exports changed as Belarus 
no longer exports heavy equipment produced in the USSR and now 
trades in dual-use technologies, air-defense, and aviation control 
systems.  As no official financial specifics were provided in the 
report, Alesin estimated the value of Belarusian arms exports at USD 
300 million. 
 
¶10.  Beer Imports Rise Dramatically 
 
According to government statistics released April 4, Belarus' beer 
imports rose in January and February by 64.3 per cent compared to 
the same time period last year.  Beers from Russia and Ukraine 
account for 99.2 per cent of all imports. 
 
¶11.  Trade Deficit with Russia May Reach USD 12 Billion 
 
Belarus' trade deficit with Russia continues to increase.  The 
deficit reached USD one billion in January 2008 and USD 1.99 billion 
by the end of February, putting it on pace to reach USD 12 billion 
by the end of the year.  In 2007, the deficit with Russia reached 
only USD 791.9 million by the end of February.  The overall trade 
deficit in goods, however, reached only USD 362.3 million for 
January-February, due to an improving of positive trade balance with 
non-CIS countries.  Last year, the overall trade deficit in goods 
reached a record high USD 4.3 billion 
 
---------------------- 
¶12.  Quote of the Week 
---------------------- 
 
Member of Parliament Olga Abramova, on the futility and meaningless 
of EU sanctions: 
 
"I sometimes get the feeling the EU is just pretending to take a 
stand.  Sanctions are a very easy way to look like you're doing 
something.  The EU introduces sanctions and lets society paddle 
around together, then waits for things to settle down.  It's easier 
for them than getting involved with real problems." 
 
Moore 
Leader