VZCZCXRO3143
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #0925/01 0950501
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P 040501Z APR 08
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000925 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR OES, EEB, AND EAP/J HEATHER DRESSER 
USTR FOR M.BEAMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG SENV TRGY SOCI JA
SUBJECT: TOYOTA SEES AN ALL HYBRID FUTURE 
 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary:  Toyota plans to more than double hybrid 
vehicle sales by 2010, apply hybrid technology across 
powertrain types, and integrate hybrid systems into long-term 
R&D programs to develop clean diesel, synthetic fuel, and 
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, according to executives at a 
Toyota technical center.  However, the same executives were 
not enthusiastic about the future of biofuels in Japan. 
While Toyota plans to commercialize a plug-in hybrid model by 
2010, it must first solve battery capacity and weight issues. 
 Hybrid vehicles get high marks for fuel efficiency and are 
an important element of GOJ strategy to reduce oil 
consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the transport 
sector. 
 
In the Future, Every Car Will be a Hybrid 
----------------------------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU)   Toyota executives report the company expects 
annual sales of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) by 2010 to 
top one million vehicles worldwide -- a figure equal to 
Toyota's cumulative HEV sales in the ten years since the 
first Prius hybrid model was introduced.  It is more than 
double estimated 2007 sales of 430,000.  Toyota reports 
selling nearly eight million vehicles worldwide in 2006.  In 
addition to new HEV models, Toyota plans to make a limited 
number of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) available 
commercially through a special leasing program by 2010. 
 
¶3.  (U)  Toyota officials emphasize hybrid systems can 
increase the efficiency of virtually any type of powertrain. 
While Toyota's current generation of HEVs runs on gasoline, 
the company expects to integrate hybrid systems into 
long-term R&D programs to develop clean diesel, synthetic 
fuel, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In the meantime, 
however, Toyota expects to reduce the fuel consumption and 
emissions of its vehicles through hybrid technology and 
incremental improvements to conventional gasoline and diesel 
engines. 
 
As Toyota Goes, so Goes Japan . . . Except on Biofuels 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
¶4.  (SBU)  Toyota's technology strategy meshes closely with 
the GOJ's overall approach to reducing Japan's gasoline 
consumption and vehicle emissions.  The plan developed by the 
Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) calls for 
concurrent research into alternative fuels, clean diesel, 
hybrid and electric battery technology, and hydrogen fuel 
cells with a near-term focus on applications for conventional 
engines.  Although biofuels development is an important 
component of METI's plan, Toyota executives downplayed the 
role biofuels will play in displacing fossil fuels in Japan. 
 
What is a Hybrid? 
----------------- 
¶5.  (U)  The HEVs, such as Toyota's Prius, combine an 
electric motor and battery system with a traditional internal 
combustion engine.  Surplus power from the engine and energy 
recovered from regenerative braking are captured and stored 
in the battery, which powers the electric motor during 
acceleration.  A power control unit turns on and off the 
engine as necessary.  The use of recovered energy makes HEVs 
more efficient than conventional vehicles.  In studies by the 
Japan Automobile Research Institute (JARI), HEVs use roughly 
a third less fuel and produce half the carbon dioxide (CO2) 
emissions of conventional vehicles.  Plug-in hybrid vehicles 
require even less fuel, as batteries can also be charged from 
a standard electric outlet, allowing the vehicle to run 
purely on electricity for a limited range before the battery 
needs recharging and the hybrid system turns the engine on. 
 
TOKYO 00000925  002 OF 002 
 
 
Of course, the ultimate emissions footprint of PHEVs depends 
on the source of electricity on the power grid. 
 
Battery Technology Key for Plug-in Hybrids 
------------------------------------------ 
¶6.  (SBU)  Toyota officials concede they must resolve battery 
storage capacity and weight issues for PHEV performance to be 
acceptable to the driving public.  However, they say Toyota 
is making progress.  Current test versions using nickel-metal 
hydride battery technology have an all-electric driving range 
of 10km and a maximum speed of 100km/hr.  Battery charging 
takes 3-4 hours using a 100 Volt electric outlet.  Toyota and 
other Japanese companies are investing in research on 
lithium-ion battery systems that promise greater storage 
densities, but executives acknowledge durability and safety 
issues remain.  In a visit by ECONOFFs to battery 
manufacturer GS Yuasa in Nara Prefecture, company officials 
discussed a recent joint venture with Mitsubishi Corporation 
to develop high energy-density lithium-ion batteries for use 
in PHEVs by 2009. 
SCHIEFFER