VZCZCXRO5188
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTI #0265/01 0980604
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070604Z APR 08 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6932
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000265 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y - MESSAGE TEXT PUNCTUATION 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
DEPT OF JUSTICE FOR OPDAT, ICITQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM AL
 
SUBJECT: GERDEC: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? 
 
REF: A: TIRANA 242 
    B: TIRANA 250 
 
TIRANA 00000265  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY: As Albanian leaders accepted their historic NATO 
invitation in Bucharest, the political fallout from the Gerdec 
tragedy continues at home.   Despite the quick government relief 
response to the crisis and the resignation of former Defense 
Minister Mediu, a feeding frenzy continues to reign in the media, 
while the opposition maintains the steady drumbeat that the Berisha 
government has not assumed political responsibility for the tragedy. 
 The Prosecutor General has launched an investigation into the blast 
that could ensnare other members of Prime Minister Berisha's 
government.  With Bucharest pending, Socialist Party (SP) Chairman 
Edi Rama has exercised unusual restraint in attacking the 
government, but may no longer feel so constrained.  So far, Prime 
Minister Berisha is weathering the storm and will certainly feel 
that the NATO invitation will strengthen his hand.  More 
embarrassing revelations, however, or another incident at the 
unstable, still unsecured Gerdec blast site could plunge him into 
yet deeper political crisis.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) In the aftermath of the March 15 Gerdec explosion, the GOA 
has focused on a quick response to victims' needs and continued 
assistance to distract attention from questions of culpability.  The 
government worked rapidly to clear approximately 4,000 residents 
from the blast area in the hours following the disaster and has 
organized relief assistance, including temporary shelter in some 
cases, for local residents whose homes were damaged by the 
explosion.   It has placed a high priority on locating and 
identifying victims.  The GOA is managing a relief fund that will 
directly compensate to local residents and victims' families, and it 
has welcomed U.S. and other experts (as well as donations) for the 
cleanup effort.   Politically, while the Prime Minister sacrificed 
former Defense Minister Mediu within 48 hours of the explosion, he 
has declined to make further high-level changes in his government 
other than to replace Mediu with former Deputy Prime Minister Oketa 
prior to the NATO summit. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The GOA's relief efforts, although rapid, have come at the 
cost of safety concerns at the blast site.  Albanian military 
officials supervising the search for victims' remains at Gerdec have 
repeatedly failed to comply with basic safety recommendations made 
by U.S. military specialists from the U.S. European Command (EUCOM). 
 (Note: A ten-member EUCOM team arrived within a week of the 
explosion to assess the situation and make recommendations regarding 
site cleanup, environmental risks, and assist with victim 
identification as required.)  The EUCOM team and Embassy officials 
have briefed both the military site commander and senior GOA 
officials repeatedly on the dangers posed by unexploded ordnance 
that litters the ground over a wide area and that was buried up to 
three meters deep under the surface by the force of the explosion. 
The GOA has been consistently told that it is unsafe for residents 
to move back into their homes until the blast area has been cleared 
of all ordnance, a process that could take years.  However, Albanian 
officials for clearly political reasons have ignored this advice and 
have actually accelerated the return of Gerdec residents by 
fast-tracking the restoration of power and water services to the 
village.  In addition to the risk posed by unexploded ordnance, the 
EUCOM team and the Embassy have also cautioned senior GOA officials 
that residents could be harmed by returning to live in structurally 
damaged dwellings and from environmental hazards resulting from the 
explosion. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The government's other immediate reaction was to ask the 
Prosecutor General to begin an investigation, which continues to be 
followed by media outlets with great interest.  Following some 
initial staff reshuffling, Prosecutor General Ina Rama has assembled 
a competent team within the General Prosecutor's Office.  There has 
been much speculation about Mediu's fate.  However, Rama has not yet 
requested Parliament to lift Mediu's immunity from prosecution, and 
he currently remains out of reach of most investigative techniques 
available to Albanian prosecutors.  (Note:  Mediu continues to be on 
the edge of the limelight.  He said publicly March 30 that he would 
cooperate with any investigation, and was ready to allow the lifting 
of his immunity.)  Speculation that Berisha or his son Shkelzen may 
have had an interest in the Albanian company that ran the Gerdec 
ammunition dismantling factory has not been confirmed so far, though 
it remains a popular topic of discussion in cafes and newspapers. 
 
¶5.  (U) The opposition has seized the opportunity to highlight the 
government's failure to protect the citizens of Gerdec.  Media and 
opinion leaders alike have accused the government of a complete 
failure by the state in allowing the ammunition dismantling facility 
to be located in an inhabited area and to operate without regard to 
labor, health, environmental or safety standards.  The relatively 
swift resignation of Defense Minister Mediu did not quell calls for 
 
TIRANA 00000265  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
further political responsibility, a drumbeat kept up by 
commentators, media outlets, and civil society groups.  Majority 
coalition members have so far not criticized the Prime Minister as 
they address other aspects of the tragedy.  With the Bucharest 
summit looming, opposition leader Edi Rama has consistently 
criticized the government, but with more restraint than his fiery 
personality usually exhibits, using his party deputies as a foil 
with their more pointed attacks.  Ilir Meta, chair of the 
opposition's Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) and Rama's 
chief opposition rival, has been the toughest and most outspoken of 
Berisha's critics on Gerdec.  Meta, with less of a chance to succeed 
Berisha, has the least to lose by pounding on the Prime Minister and 
much to gain from a thorough discrediting of his government. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT:  There is a strong conviction among the media, 
opinion makers, and the informed public that the government, despite 
its continued calls for a thorough investigation, is calculatedly 
seeking to evade any responsibility for the Gerdec disaster.  For 
all that, Berisha is still very much on the hook politically: the 
public apathy exhibited in the face of other crises, such as 
electricity shortages or the 2007 local elections, is not evident on 
this occasion and none of the Prime Minister's efforts to get off 
the defensive appear to be working this time, no doubt because 
Gerdec has come to embody all the government's past failings in 
stifling corruption and putting public welfare first.  The NATO 
invitation will strengthen Berisha's hand for the moment and as long 
as his Democratic Party stands behind him, there is little the 
opposition can do to topple the government.  However, more 
embarrassing revelations about what his officials knew or did not 
know, or another explosion of the highly unstable and still 
unsecured munitions scattered about the Gerdec blast site could 
radically alter the political equation with extreme prejudice to 
Berisha.  In any event, he will not enjoy heading into the 2009 
election campaign in such a vulnerable situation. 
 
WITHERS