VZCZCXRO1752
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBW RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0292/01 1210940
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 300940Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7293
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0288
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2256
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000292 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: EARLY ELECTIONS PREPARATIONS IN FULL 
SWING 
 
REF: SKOPJE 262 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (SBU) In a series of meetings with Macedonia's political 
leaders April 21-23, the Ambassador and DCM urged all parties 
to ensure free, fair and non-violent parliamentary elections 
on June 1.  Although the official campaign period begins May 
11, parties already are floating their campaign platforms, 
informally campaigning, and wooing coalition partners.  The 
latest polls show ruling eMacedonian VMRO with a two-to-one 
lead over its main rival, SDSM.  Among the eAlbanian parties, 
governing coalition partner DPA still trails opposition DUI. 
All political leaders shared with the Ambassador and the DCM 
their concerns about the conduct of the campaign and the 
elections, as well as the potential for violence in eAlbanian 
areas.  Coalition partners VMRO and DPA assured the 
Ambassador that everything "would be kept under control," 
despite alleged "DUI provocations."  Opposition SDSM, DUI and 
even governing coalition partner NSDP were less optimistic, 
and gave a litany of already registered election-related 
irregularities they claim the governing coalition has 
committed.  End summary. 
 
PARTIES SCRAMBLE TO FORMULATE ELECTION MESSAGES... 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Just weeks before the May 11 official start of the 
parliamentary election campaign (reftel), Macedonia's 
politicians are trying to formalize their electoral 
platforms.  Opposition SDSM is talking about "a European 
platform," while the ruling VMRO says it will have "a 
European and a patriotic platform."  Menduh Thaci, President 
of eAlbanian coalition partner DPA, told the Ambassador April 
21 that his party's campaign would concentrate on "lower 
level, everyday issues like education, culture, 
infrastructure and employment."  By avoiding the 
emotionally-charged eAlbanian themes dealing with the use of 
language and flags, Thaci went on, "we will lower 
intra-ethnic tensions, and we can build on our social policy 
successes in the current government." 
 
¶3. (SBU) Thaci's rival, eAlbanian opposition DUI's President 
Ahmeti, told the Ambassador April 23 that there is a 
developing split between those parties that consider 
themselves "patriotic" and those that refer to themselves as 
"European oriented."  NSDP's President Petkovski told the 
Ambassador April 22 that his party's policy stances were 
closer to DUI's than to NSDP's coalition partner VMRO's. 
Surprised by PM Gruevski's statement that NATO membership 
could wait for another 10 years (if the name issue remained 
unresolved), Petkovski added that EU and NATO integration 
were the only guarantors for Macedonia's existence.  In an 
April 23 meeting, SDSM's President Shekerinska informed the 
Ambassador that SDSM was still working on its platform, while 
acknowledging that the program would be important only to 
"the most loyal" SDSM voters.  "Everybody else," she said, 
"would focus only on the lists of candidates and coalition 
partners." 
 
...AND FUTURE COALITION PARTNERS 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Behind-the-scenes coalition building has started in 
full force.  A self-assured Thaci told the Ambassador that 
Gruevski "is convinced that he cannot have a government 
without DPA" and that Gruevski had promised Thaci he would 
fulfill DPA's social demands before forming a government with 
him.  NSDP's Petkovski also claimed that Gruevski had offered 
him a place in a future coalition, but "we have to find a 
balance between Gruevski's populism and Macedonia's strategic 
goals."  Gruevski's recent public statements have indeed 
leaned towards a preference to form a coalition with one of 
his current partners, although his Chief of Staff has told us 
that the Prime Minister has made no firm decision in that 
regard. 
 
¶5. (SBU) DUI's Ahmeti apprised the Ambassador of his own 
coalition talks with several small parties, including a 
Turkish party, the Bosniak party, and a Roma party. 
Regarding SDSM coalition partners, SDSM President Shekerinska 
 
SKOPJE 00000292  002 OF 003 
 
 
indicated the party was considering a coalition of the 
appropriate size and makeup to help attract both "traditional 
SDSM and SDSM-leaning voters," noting that many of the latter 
had not come out to vote on election day in the past. 
 
GOVERNMENT PROMISES FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS... 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6. (SBU) In a joint International Community Principals (U.S., 
NATO, EUSR, and OSCE) meeting with the leadership of the 
Ministry of Interior (MOI) April 21 to discuss security 
issues related to the upcoming elections, the Ambassador 
noted that each member of the MOI team would play a key role 
in ensuring MOI personnel would behave professionally and 
correctly on Election Day.  Minister Jankuloska acknowledged 
the unique importance of the 2008 elections, and said the GOM 
wanted to "meet or exceed the standard" for conduct of the 
campaign and voting.  She hoped to re-engage adequate numbers 
of police who had experience with the 2006 elections and to 
coordinate with political party security chiefs to prevent 
incidents.  DPA's Deputy Minister of Interior Elmazi added 
that, in addition to Kondovo, other sensitive areas (mainly 
in the eAlbanian areas) would be closely monitored.  Police 
Director Todorovski noted that the MOI already had an idea 
where there might be electoral irregularities, and had drawn 
up a plan to address any attempts to disturb the peace during 
the campaign period or on Election Day. 
 
¶7. (SBU) During their April 21 meeting, DPA's Thaci bristled 
at the Ambassador's comment that the 2006 elections had been 
generally free and fair.  Rattling off a list of alleged 
irregularities in DUI-controlled areas in 2006, Thaci 
predicted that "DUI will continue to behave provocatively." 
The Ambassador emphasized that, since Thaci was in power, he 
had a greater responsibility to ensure there were no 
election-related problems.  Thaci agreed, twice admitting 
that the "responsibility for secure elections falls on us." 
(Note: Disturbingly, while leaving the Chancery April 21, 
Thaci told Emboff "I don't need to get my hands dirty.  I 
have the police to do that."  End note.) 
 
...DOUBTS AND CONCERNS 
---------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) In an April 21 conversation with the DCM, eAlbanian 
PDP's President Vejseli said that free and fair elections 
were of utmost importance to his party since "that is the 
only way we could have a voice in any elections."  He was 
doubtful, however, that the elections would be peaceful. 
Concerned about ballot stuffing by both DPA and DUI, he 
predicted that "DUI will be the bigger offender."  NSDP's 
Petkovski echoed Vejseli's concerns about the fairness of the 
elections.  He pointed out that DPA's recent promise to hand 
out 3,000 new jobs was a bad sign, which indicated potential 
election problems ahead related to government misuse of 
public funds for campaign purposes. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Predictably, in their respective meetings with the 
Ambassador, opposition SDSM and DUI presented lengthy lists 
of grievances and asked for greater international community 
pressure on the GOM to ensure free and fair elections. 
SDSM's Shekerinska raised several concerns, including the 
Prime Minister's alleged use, to his party's advantage, of 
legal inconsistencies related to the State Electoral 
Commission.  Shekerinska noted also concerns about equal 
access to the media.  She cited TV station policies on 
political advertising as allowing "under-the-table deals" 
advantageous to the government.  DUI's Ahmeti voiced similar 
concerns, especially regarding the state TV and how it is 
effectively "blocked" to all but the ruling parties. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Both Shekerinska and Ahmeti pointed to their 
experience, as coalition partners in power during the 2006 
elections, as an example of the government conducting free 
and fair elections.  Ahmeti recalled that in 2006 Gruevski 
had requested that the government provide security for the 
elections, and now Ahmeti was requesting the same from 
Gruevski's government.  Ahmeti was concerned, however, that 
as long as a DPA official was the Deputy MOI, there would be 
problems.  In her meeting with the Ambassador, Shekerinska 
said that during the 2006 elections, her government had held 
 
SKOPJE 00000292  003 OF 003 
 
 
off on major policy or financial decisions during the 
campaign season.  She brought along a multi-page list of 
government initiatives recently started by VMRO and DPA, 
including reconstruction of schools and announcements of new 
government jobs, which the GOM was pushing during this 
pre-campaign season. 
 
POLLS GIVE GRUEVSKI AND HIS PARTY STRONG LEAD 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) An April 21 poll by the Center for Research and 
Politics showed that VMRO enjoys a two-to-one lead over SDSM, 
while eAlbanian DUI led its rival, eAlbanian DPA, by almost 
4%.  Smaller parties that had seats in the last Parliament 
did not receive any support from those polled, while NSDP, 
LDP and eAlbanian PDP limped across the finish line with less 
than one percent support each.  The Macedonian News Agency 
published April 23 the results of the most recent IRI poll 
done between April 11-15.  Eagerly awaited by all political 
parties, the IRI numbers showed an even greater advantage for 
VMRO (29% of the vote, or a 3% increase over VMRO's December 
2007 result); a one percent drop for SDSM at 11% of 
respondents; DUI at 10% of respondents; and a three percent 
jump for DPA to 8%. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶12. (SBU) Well before the May 11 official election campaign 
kick-off, election buzz fills the air.  Recent minor violent 
incidents in eAlbanian areas (with damage to property only) 
are only isolated incidents but most analysts predict they 
will escalate in the run-up to Election Day. 
NAVRATIL